Just for the record:

Oslo 00z Ensembles: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Oslo_ens.png

I think ECM Op will be an outlier this morning and the general theme is a mobile W to E pattern across N Europe. Perhaps becoming more amplified from mid month.

The possibility of a decent January cold spell never got anywhere near the reliable timeframe in any case. People need to understand just how hard it is to break out of a disastrous January zonal spell, once it gets going - the writing was on the wall for January in the model output from Christmas onwards - you need to see serious disruption of the vortex and the PNJ to get any chance of a decent January spell in our damp, mild corner of the NE Atlantic - couple that with the Yanks getting decent cold once again (greedy b'stards) and it is Goodnight Vienna for us!

I think the general consensus was always for February to be the most likely month for any 'proper' cold spell risk. The current output certainly endorses that as January is looking pretty unsettled as shown out to the 16th. As MM said, it can be difficult to break out of this pattern. The MetO long range is also very consistent with the unsettled theme through until the month's end. Colder, showery PM air will of course bring snowfalls at times to the hills in the N.

Spare a thought for the lower lying Alpine resorts too. Very little snow. My brother and mates are going to Torgon in Switzerland in February. Currently, it is mild and with very little snow. The current output doesn't want to change that either.

http://www.yr.no/place/Switzerland/Valais/Torgon/

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY JANUARY 6TH 2015.

NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY JANUARY 7TH 2015 08:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front clearing East today will be followed by a ridge of High pressure tonight and a warm front and strong SW flow tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable and often very windy and sometimes mild with rain at times. Some drier interludes likely too with slight frosts at night.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a very strong Jet Stream being maintained across the UK or just to the North in the short to mid term before it quickly weakens later as the result of a weakening vortex to the North of the UK.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational continues to look very zonal, sometimes mild and wet, sometimes cooler and more showery but never particularly cold but nearly always very windy from a Westerly point. Later in the run though pressure rises sharply to the West and NW slipping East bringing a change to colder and drier weather with some wintry showers in the usual places before the High pressure collapses SE later taking its colder and frosty conditions with it and returning milder SW winds slowly back down from the NW by he end of the run.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is as yesterday more reluctant to show any meaningful rise of pressure from the West late in the run and while the run weakens the zonal Westerly weather conditions late in the run changeable weather under westerly winds remain the favourite weather type likely two weeks from now though probably less windy.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a very zonal period between now and the end of the run between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. Spells of rain and high winds are a threat for all areas at times in sometimes mild and sometimes cooler conditions with wintry showers at times over Northern Hills. Pressure does rise somewhat close to the South and SW for a time in week 2 but insufficient to break the pattern down before rejuvenation.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters continue to show Westerly winds the more likely option to continue to be felt by all by Day 15 although the weakening vortex to the North will dumb down the Jet flow which does show a few options where High pressure becomes High close to , over or just to the SE of the UK although these do not hint of anything meaningful in the way of cold other than frosts.

UKMO UKMO shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK over the next 5 days with gales and heavy rain at times mixed with shorter and more showery interludes. It continues to show High pressure never being very far away from the South or SW though through the period continuing to dilute the very worst of the stormy conditions towards more Northern areas of the UK rather than all areas though all areas will have a stiff breeze as well as some heavy rain at times too in never overly cold conditions.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a very volatile and active Atlantic flow as deep depressions cross quickly East between Scotland and Iceland with all areas seeing broad mild sectors with rain at times heaviest on Northern and Western hills  mixed with colder polar maritime Westerly winds, equally strong with showers, wintry on hills across the North.

GEM GEM today follows the very worn road of late with typical zonal January weather type with Low after Low moving East to the North of the UK with embedded fronts and strong winds delivering rain for all heavy at times especially across the North and West. pressure rises somewhat just to the South of the UK later steering the worst of the wind and rain towards more northern areas and away from the South where it could become largely dry and very mild later.

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a Westerly flow dominant across the UK over the next week or so. Some rain at times is likely for all but with some dry and bright spells at times too, none of which look like lasting very long. temperatures are shown to be on the mild side of average under the rainier periods and slightly on the cold side of average in the more showery interludes between the rain bands.

ECM ECM this morning shows little or no change in the mobile Westerly pattern of weather with spells of rain on fast moving fronts crossing East over the UK regularly, always more active towards the North and West especially later when Southern and Eastern areas are more likely to stay drier for longer then as High pressure lies close to the South or SE next week.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows absolutely no change in the pattern this chart has been showing now for nearly two weeks with Low pressure likely to be lying to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW with a broad zone of Westerly winds over the UK delivering a continuing mix og generally mild and changeable weather with rain at times and slightly colder weather in the brief showery interludes between the rainbands.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend this morning remains largely usettled and windy with spells of rain at times and short colder spells with showers. Yesterday's hints of more High pressure likely to be in the mix during Week 2 have been diluted in extent this morning..

MY THOUGHTS In a Winter that is becoming increasingly difficult to say anything that's different than what has already been said that very story continues again today. The models can no longer be said to be stuck in a rut as they are best desribed as stuck in a trench with little or no give in the current pattern whatsoever in the next few weeks at least. Some commentators suggest that this Winter is at least better than last Winter in regard to cold due to the fact that we have had some frost and a brief snowfall (for some only) well that to me doesn't constitute a Winter as it's something you will get in any Winter though I concede last Winter was an exception to that rule. Over and above that the synoptics have been nothing but dire for the UK in the likelihood of impending cold since way back in November with all the talk and excitement of SSW's changing the course of the weather in the UK proving a red herring to say the least with the models quite rightly not being drawn into the propagation of that down through the atmosphere in a way to affect this part of the hemisphere. In my opinion the models have generally read the script very well this year and the Met office's mild call is well accredited so far so all I can say is why has it been so benign and boring for cold lovers.  The two factors that 90% of the time affects the weather over the UK is the Jet stream and the position thereof and the Azores High. Forget Scandi High's and Greenland ones's  because if both of those two factors I mention are strong as they have been all Winter so far then they will always overpower the strength of anything else. If one of those powerhouses is weak then the door opens for something more akin to what folks want to see can emerge from a displaced jet or a removed azores High and to have both displaced or removed can lead to the holy grail for coldies but is as rare as hens teeth in Winter. So how does this fit in to the next two weeks output issued today. Well firstly the Azores high is going nowhere with it's positioning shuffling about and if anything favouring even milder and less wet weather at times to Southern Britain later in this morning's output. The unusually strong Jet flow at present remains that way for some time to come but does show signs of weakening later which could at least slow the pace of the changes in weather variability and does lead to options of stronger ridges to give longer drier interludes with some frosts returning by night but that is the best that can be offered in what I see in the models this morning. As I have said before those looking for cold want to look Southwest for cold and not just Northwest, North and East because as long as there is a large, strong  warm High pressure down there with an overriding Jet over the Atlantic any needed requirements elsewhere synoptically will have a mountain to climb as it's odds on that any cold will be muted, shortlived or non-existent and for these reasons this has been proven so far this Winter.

Historical hat on here, don't totally agree with the difficulty of breaking out of a zonal January pattern. January 1991, 1998, 2005          2007, all started off stormy affairs but had calmed down by month's end with some kind of mid latitude block. 

I can't argue with any of that Gibby, excellent analysis of where we stand and what to expect really.

Quite, and 1991 and 2005 both then saw decent cold spells at some point during February, the former especially so.

Some stormy weather for Scotland on the GFS early Friday. ECM has some tight isobars too. I expect Met Office warnings soon

GFSP, ECM.

As for a cold spell mid-month, looks like that's downgraded further. The NAEFS and GEFS now looking like a bog-standard ridging Azores high.

850 temps means showing the UK once more the mildest part of the N. Hemisphere at our latitude. This island really gets on my nerves some times!

I don't know but the UKMO always seems to be at the other extreme: lows are less low, highs are less high and there are a lot fewer isobars altogether on the UKMO charts. 

and 9 times out of 10 UKMO are nearer the mark in verification. I agree with Matty that GFS do always seem to overplay depth of pressure within these systems. I do notice they are nearly always shown in FI land and therefore shouldn't be treated at face value and are probably a worst case scenario of the trend.

Very disappointing output today if its proper winter synoptics you are looking for, especially for the south where the 'window of opportunity' in core winter is significantly less than further north.

The ensembles do paint a cooler picture for a few days between 240-288 hours but realistically a few days with 850Hpa flat lining around -5c doesn't really do for the south whereby a sparkling morning frost gets dissolved in late morning sunshine as temps down here reach 5-6c by early afternoon in a NW'ly breeze.

Potential remains at 240 hours or more..this winter is worst than last year (at least last year we managed expectations following repaeted dire output). This year we keep getting the carrot dangled before having it taken away.

Rant over..have a nice day.

Because we suffer more from mild than anywhere else at our latitude and it sucks! The western seaboard of the USA should suffer the same as us, but I guess their mountain ranges save them from the crud we get, although I understand Seattle gets a lot of rain - but at least they can drive inland for a short distance and find snow in the mountains close at hand.

Does look like we may be dodging the bullets at this end as far as this Thursday through to Saturday is concerned, but if some of the outputs for mid-week next week (around the 15th) are anything to go by, I'm getting this deja poo feeling. Of course, that is a long way off in forecasting terms but it shows how once North America go into the deep free and triggers off a zonal-type set up over the Atlantic, it's a pattern that is going to be hard to break out of.
With that to mind, I've decided to write off January when it comes to "snowhoping", that leaves us with February - and knowing our luck, we get the proper wintry weather as soon as we enter the meteorological spring season (March), at a time when I find myself breaking out the lawnmower and feeling the proper warmth of the rising spring sun.

Well, I'll point out that the models have never been showing what Brian's definition of a cold spell is - so the signal can't be waning!

The signal (which still remains) is for a decent chance of a colder-than-average spell. Nothing has changed in that regard either.

Looking at the 6z Aberdeen ensemble set, there is a definite downward trend in 850s out to the 17 Jan. Nothing too cold I agree but certainly a downward trend. Beyond 17 January there is a significant scatter between very mild options and cold options, some of which approach -10.

So based on the GFS 6z output I agree with Retron, that a colder than average spell is the favoured option as we head through mid-January. However, with the mobile Westerly set up added to a strong Azores High, it wouldn't take much to flatten things out and for a colder than average spell to become just average. There is certainly no deep prolonged cold spell on the horizon at present. 

I'm going to disagree with you there in part  Darren - Brian's definition aside what we see now for days 8-10 is definitely a moderated version of what we saw for days 11-14 just three days ago. From a SE perspective you should never rule out the potential of a snow-delivering set up, but you can't argue that the potential has waned these last few days. Let's hope it waxes again so to speak or else this 'winter' is looking grim for cold weather enthusiasts.

I don't share the disappointment I'm afraid, I see quite few cold days coming up , no freeze up but did anyone forecast Ice days???

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn8417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15617.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.gif

Above are double digit days from the latest run IMBY.

Tally................................Exeter will often see those sort of temps???? what do you expect.

Move North mate is my advice

I've not been paying a huge amount of attention lately as all the drama is getting in the way... However...,

I seem to remember that during the cold spells of recent years ens often clustered between the -6 to -8 range with just the odd ones going much colder. What normally happened would they would upgrade around 2-3 days before.

EPS, maybe (although in reality it's just a shift from the majority of runs in the cold cluster to a roughly equal split) but GEFS - no way.

So that everyone can see why I'm saying this, on top is today's 6z output. And below, the 6z output from 3 days ago. It is not a downgrade - indeed, it shows remarkable consistency.

The problem is that people get too hung up on the operational run, or individual members, or even the exact point of the mean, rather than looking at the suite and overall pattern as a whole.

For reference, here are the ensembles leading to 2010. Note that I was using WZ then rather than Meteoceil and also note that I'm not expecting a repeat any time soon - this is just the way of showing how the ensembles reacted back then.

Member's lack of appetite on what currently appears to be on offer is quite apparent, but you very rarely get exactly what seems to be on the table 10 days hence........