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Whether Idle
04 January 2015 09:53:52

There is some mild weather in the reliable forecast range.  Rather than punish yourself with the RHFC (relentless hunt for cold), why not indulge in enjoying the short term forecast or actual conditions.  This is not a cold whingeing thread, or a thread for pointing out how cold it is, its just a thread for discussion of any mild weather away from the MO and winter  threads where such comments can have an unintended inflammatory effect.  As a winter cold fan I still yearn for some snow but I can see the benefits of the mild.


I will get the ball rolling with a few statements of the perhaps obvious benefits of any milder than average weather we experience over the remaining 7 weeks of winter:


1. Boost to the economy via Lower heating bills - small on an individual scale but when multiplied millions of times across UK households this amounts to a significant increase in disposable income for the hard pressed UK consumer body.


2. Windy conditions often associated with a +ve NAO and zonal flow will generate millions of KwH of clean energy, assisting the UK with its significant chunk of offshore wind energy.


3. Less demand on overstretched A and E.  Less broken limbs from less ice and compacted snow, meaning less pressure on the NHS, lower waiting times in A and E.


4. More useable weather ?  Maybe if we get more Euro trash or Barty then the combination of mild and dry can be very helpful and useable.  (Obviously these benefits can be negated by the mild and wild variety (as with 2014).


5. Less cold SSTs come spring and therefore less problems around our coasts come March-June with claggy sea fog and mist.


6.  Time saved in the morning scraping the windscreen.


7.  Less likelihood of road traffic accidents caused by slippery roads.


8. Less potholes likely on our roads through freeze thaw due to freezing conditions.


 


Here is the Met O chart at day 6 with Tm air in charge for most of the population.



WI


 


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Devonian
04 January 2015 10:24:10


There is some mild weather in the reliable forecast range.  Rather than punish yourself with the RHFC (relentless hunt for cold), why not indulge in enjoying the short term forecast or actual conditions.  This is not a cold whingeing thread, or a thread for pointing out how cold it is, its just a thread for discussion of any mild weather away from the MO and winter  threads where such comments can have an unintended inflammatory effect.  As a winter cold fan I still yearn for some snow but I can see the benefits of the mild.


....


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Good idea. Of course what is 'inflammatory' depends upon ones pov. Myself, I'd like a model discussion thread where a 'mildist' take on the models wasn't seen as inflammatory or even trolling. I keep out of the model thread because of that (and I doubt I'm alone).


Anyway, yes, it useable weather. For outdoor work it's great. We've had more than enough rain to top up soil moisture for at least half a year. The fields are dry, the mud under control. I don't need to battle to get into the car to get to work, the roads are safer (and not pot holed or washed away). We've even had a couple of crisp,frosty,  cold, bright days that didn't outlast their welcome and become a chore.

Gusty
04 January 2015 10:41:06

Good idea Phil. 


A useable week of weather coming up, especially with the high pressure close to the south of the UK. No big extremes of temperature with generally moderate breezes. An occasional light frost and some frontal mainly light rain at times too.


The warm sector on Friday night has been catching my eye with something like +11c 850Hpa's pushing in.


A very mild night for early January with mins of maybe 10-12c in the south before quite a sharp cold front ushers it all away during Saturday.



Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Matty H
04 January 2015 10:48:30

Aside from last week it's been the almost perfect winter again so far. No real cold as such, and nowhere near as wet as last winter, currently, although that may change. The murky gloom is the downside of mild weather in winter, but even so we've had quite a few days of sunshine where it hasn't been remotely cold. We hit 15c the other day which is incredible for early Jan. Two successive winters lacking in cold? Dare us mildies dream?


if it does have to turn cold eventually, at least let it come with a deluge of snow. 


 


idj20
04 January 2015 11:03:04

Ten years ago, I would have been gnashing my teeth in frustration at the lack of proper cold snowy or wild stormy weather, but I think old age and being a homeowner for so long has crept up on me meant that mild set ups has more appeal to me in terms of lower heating bills and keeping a sense of normality about things. Even better if it all comes with a nice drop of winter sunshine.

After that living nightmare of last winter, I seem to have suddenly lost that "bring it on!" thing every time wild stormy weather is being forecast, which does kind of defeat the point of me being a weather enthusiast. But, having said all that, I still wouldn't say no to a half decent spell of heavy snow as that brings out the kid in me.  I'll get properly excited about that when it all comes into the 48 hours range - anything beyond that would only set myself up for disappointment.

But like I said, I can now take it or leave things when it comes to our weather, as long as it doesn't get all silly with stormy wild weather too often.


 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Essan
04 January 2015 11:16:41

What mild weather?  It is 1c, cold, damp with dense fog here!


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Matty H
04 January 2015 11:23:40


What mild weather?  It is 1c, cold, damp with dense fog here!


Originally Posted by: Essan 


You appear to have posted in the wrong thread then 


Gooner
04 January 2015 11:38:29


 


You appear to have posted in the wrong thread then 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
04 January 2015 18:42:52

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


+10     850s into the south-west on Friday, the growing season will be given a good kick start and no doubt the Isles of Scilly daffodil growers will welcome this.


Edit: An interesting note from a month or so ago:


http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/27/frogs-breeding-in-november-due-to-mild-weather


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
05 January 2015 18:58:39

Diagramme GEFS


The latter part of January starting to trend milder again, after a cooler snap around 16th.


Snow chances are minimal, an occasional frost possible.


Daffodils already poking through the earth in the flower beds in my back garden.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
nsrobins
05 January 2015 20:31:28

When it turns very cold can we have a cold weather moaning thread?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gusty
05 January 2015 20:35:29

Friday night continues to look exceptionally mild away from Scotland.


With 558 dam and both 925Hpa and 850Hpa progged at +11c, its no surprise.


12 hours later this winter warmth is swept away by a sharp cold front with a corresponding fall of 16c at 850Hpa level. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whether Idle
06 January 2015 07:54:16


Friday night continues to look exceptionally mild away from Scotland.


With 558 dam and both 925Hpa and 850Hpa progged at +11c, its no surprise.


12 hours later this winter warmth is swept away by a sharp cold front with a corresponding fall of 16c at 850Hpa level. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Well spotted Steve.  It could be a record breakingly warm night.  One to watch.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Jonesy
06 January 2015 14:23:07

Very good idea WI ....It allows those like me with almost no knowledge to join in here rather than get a damn good spanking in the MO thread with off topic posts 


 


What's the highest recorded night temperature ever recorded in the UK in January?


 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


 


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015010606/84-582PUK.GIF?06-6


The windchill factor will keep the feel like temps down a touch though due to the stiff breeze across the UK


 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Jonesy
06 January 2015 14:29:47


 


1. Boost to the economy via Lower heating bills - small on an individual scale but when multiplied millions of times across UK households this amounts to a significant increase in disposable income for the hard pressed UK consumer body.


2. Windy conditions often associated with a +ve NAO and zonal flow will generate millions of KwH of clean energy, assisting the UK with its significant chunk of offshore wind energy.


3. Less demand on overstretched A and E.  Less broken limbs from less ice and compacted snow, meaning less pressure on the NHS, lower waiting times in A and E.


4. More useable weather ?  Maybe if we get more Euro trash or Barty then the combination of mild and dry can be very helpful and useable.  (Obviously these benefits can be negated by the mild and wild variety (as with 2014).


5. Less cold SSTs come spring and therefore less problems around our coasts come March-June with claggy sea fog and mist.


6.  Time saved in the morning scraping the windscreen.


7.  Less likelihood of road traffic accidents caused by slippery roads.


8. Less potholes likely on our roads through freeze thaw due to freezing conditions.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


9. Matty H will be happy 



Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2015 16:46:15
Excellent thread.
In what is turning out to be a generally ok winter for milder weather fans we could be looking at some very mild temps Friday night. I can't wait to see if it pans out as expected.
I don't know about lamp post watching, thermometer watch will be on the cards!
😍
Whether Idle
06 January 2015 19:03:10

 


Excellent thread.
In what is turning out to be a generally ok winter for milder weather fans we could be looking at some very mild temps Friday night. I can't wait to see if it pans out as expected.
I don't know about lamp post watching, thermometer watch will be on the cards!
😍

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Welcome Jacko!


I am leaving the RHFC (see opening post) to others for the moment.  The mild weather however, which has rarely failed to materialise in Januaries for a long time now, will create some disturbed conditions methinks later this week.


Also I note the huge contrast in temperatures for Saturday - with Glasgow a chilly 2-3 C and London a sizzling 12c:



Some notably mild runs starting to show up for the latter third of January.  Will need close scrutiny to see if this develops into a trend:


Diagramme GEFS


 


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
JACKO4EVER
06 January 2015 19:58:30
Yes WI, good temperature gradient there- someone to get a soaking in the middle? With a downgrade of the proposed colder spell that some were touting I wonder where the CET will end up this month? Could well be another above average effort?
doctormog
06 January 2015 20:12:54

Yes WI, good temperature gradient there- someone to get a soaking in the middle? With a downgrade of the proposed colder spell that some were touting I wonder where the CET will end up this month? Could well be another above average effort?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I realise this will probably be seen as off topic but I can't let the "downgrade" comment go unnoticed. Whether it is misunderstanding or something else, there has been no "downgrade". If you check the ensemble and other model data you will see that. No-one on here was predicting 1962-63 or similar, it was never on offer, it still is not.


Of interest above in this thread, as others have mentioned, is the marked temperature gradient. It could certainly lead to some interesting conditions...somewhere in the UK.


Whether Idle
06 January 2015 20:15:58

Yes WI, good temperature gradient there- someone to get a soaking in the middle? With a downgrade of the proposed colder spell that some were touting I wonder where the CET will end up this month? Could well be another above average effort?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Yes, someone surely must pick up vast quantities of rainfall this weekend.  January could well be another above average month. 


Talking of gradients in temperature, how's about this for gradients in rainfall across Scotland!: Looks like its western Scotland's turn...AGAIN!



The gradient is 160mm from Ullapool to Braemar!


 


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
JACKO4EVER
07 January 2015 10:16:52


 


Yes, someone surely must pick up vast quantities of rainfall this weekend.  January could well be another above average month. 


Talking of gradients in temperature, how's about this for gradients in rainfall across Scotland!: Looks like its western Scotland's turn...AGAIN!



The gradient is 160mm from Ullapool to Braemar!


 


 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


super soaker weather for sure!


I am altogether more worried about the wind though, it would not surprise me to see parts of Scotland record 100mph gusts. Certainly something interesting and quite frightening about to unfold......

Jonesy
07 January 2015 14:51:21

Met Office have me down for a balmy 13*c through most of Friday and through the early hours of Saturday before eventually dropping to a clear chilly 3*c by midnight Saturday.


...Really looking forward to a chilly Sunday Morning, Crisp & Clear running round a football pitch, that's if it's not called off due to waterlogged pitch or a frozen pitch 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
JACKO4EVER
07 January 2015 16:17:29
The more I look at things the more I feel that the high temperature record may fall on Friday for date and location. Lots of interest for milder weather fans for sure!
doctormog
07 January 2015 17:32:29

The more I look at things the more I feel that the high temperature record may fall on Friday for date and location. Lots of interest for milder weather fans for sure!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


17.2°C is the value to beat for that date.


JACKO4EVER
07 January 2015 17:41:58


 


17.2°C is the value to beat for that date.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


thanks Doc. Nice to see you posting in here!


;-)

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