An Alaskan trough causing trouble on the GFS and GFSP op runs... combines with the Atlantic low and keeps it from getting south of Iceland.
GFS, which flattens the pattern majorly beyond day 9, I will cast aside for now as it breaks away from the dominant signal of late. If it gains further support this evening, then it will be time to really start being concerned about such things.
GFSP keeps the amplified slow and allows a weak trough to hang down through the UK with slow moving fronts hitting entrenched cold air, that having been developed beneath the slowly toppling Atlantic ridge 19th-20th Jan which sees light winds and a cold air mass, including a bit of a continental feed - a recipe for considerable low level cold.
Even without that Alaskan low, it would not be surprising to find that the ridge holds on longer than recent consensus has shown - this often happens when you have a broad scale trough moving in, as it tends to be moved along too quickly at the longer range.
Not convinced that the Atlantic low will develop so far north though - ECM had it further south and this avoided phasing with the Alaskan low. In which case the ridge would be eroded more from the NW rather than N as shown by GFSP.
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