Met Office Hadley     5.0c.      Anomaly     1.4c.   Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                 4.72c      Anomaly     0.56c.

N-W                        5.39c.     Anomaly     1.2c.

Mount  Sorrel           4.9c.      Anomaly      0.7c.

My   Mean                5.4c.      Anomaly     -0.3c.   

Met Office Hadley      4.9c.    Anomaly    1.3c.  Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                   4.52c.  Anomaly    0.37c 

N-W                           5.2c.    Anomaly    1.01c.

Mount Sorrel             4.6c.    Anomaly   0.4c.

My Mean                   5.3c.    Anomaly  -0.4c.         

Looking at a high 4's low 5's finish?

Might be a better start to 2015 for me anyway.

Yes Gavin. My latest calculations suggest a figure of 4.8C.

This weekend should see temperatures close to average. Next week looks relatively mild. It may turn rather cool again next weekend.

The CET mean for the past 7 days including today has been 0.9C which is 3.3C below the 1971-2000 mean for these 7 days of 4.2C. So a genuine cold spell for the CET area at least.

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.    Anomaly      1.2c.    Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                 4.49c.   Anomaly      0.34c.

N-W                        5.05c.   Anomaly      0.86c.

Mount Sorrel            4.6c.     Anomaly      0.4c.

My  Mean                 5.1c.     Anomaly     -0.6c.     

No lower! That's far enough!

Metcheck at the moment 4.49c.   Anomaly  0.33cc.

N-W     5.05c.   Anomaly   0.86c.  

Mount Sorrel   4.6c.  Anomaly  0.4c.  

In terms of temperatures I don't see the next cold spell that is coming up later this week being much different to the last one, at least as far as the Central England Temperature is concerned.

My estimate of the CET mean for the 7 days from 17-23 Jan is 0.97C

My current estimate of the CET mean for the 8 days from 29 Jan to 5 Feb is 0.85C.

So very little difference at this stage.

Due to the expected colder conditions now at the end of the week my January CET mean estimate has now fallen back to 4.4C, still slightly above the 1971-2000 mean.

Worth noting that the provisional Hadley CET for 23 Jan at 3.3C is woefully inaccurate. My calculation indicates 1.4C. It certainly should be well below 2C. So expect a reasonably significant downwards adjustment to the CET at the end of this month from Hadley as there have been a few other days where the reported CET is way too high.

Currently for the winter as a whole the CET is above average. However, the next cold spell should result in the CET moving to just below average by 7 February. Current estimate is 4.50C at 7 Feb. Compare that to the same period last year when we were running at 5.98C. So we will be 1.5C below last winter with 3 weeks of the winter left.

Met Office Hadley    4.7c.    Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to  24th.

Metcheck                 4.44c.  Anomaly     0.29c.

N-W                       5.02c.  Anomaly     0.83c.

Mount  Sorrel          4.5c.   Anomaly      0.3c.

My   Mean               5.1c.   Anomaly     -0.6c. 

Very interesting GWarming.

It looks as if it is going Cohen's way at the moment, with a heavily back-loaded winter . However we will see.

WRT the January  CET points -

I thought it was strange on that evening (23/1) when the midlands news and weather were saying that  that it was very cold in the Midlands overnight.

They showed the minimum for the midlands as -4.9C at Pershore. I thought this was strange as I had recorded -5.3C and many other places in the Midlands  reported their own minima of less than mine.

I looked on  weather online at 09:00 in the morning and it showed Pershore as -7.1C and Hereford as  -6.4C, still at 08:45. Hence my surprise that BBC Midlands had put out numbers as high as -4.9C as the minimum in the evening

I see that Stoneyhurst (aka Woburn) had also gone down to a similar -7.0C. So yes there have been two major overrecordings of minima this month and I also have seen a couple of minor increases. Against this there was one day when they went lower than my expected calculations during a warmer period.

So, yes I expect to see a revision down of about 0.2 to 0.3C this month.  

Met Office Hadley         4.7c.     Anomaly    1.0c.    Provisional to    25th.

Metcheck                       4.56c.   Anomaly    0.41c.

N-W                              5.04c.    Anomaly   0.85c.

Mount  Sorrel                 4.7c.      Anomaly   0.5c.

My   Mean                      5.1c.      Anomaly  -0.6c.

Thanks GW.

Fairly pleased with how my winter forecast is progressing - May well go for a slightly colder than average CET for February.

Here

1.40c

Min -1.58c

Max 4.39c

Met  Office Hadley     4.8c.      Anomaly      1.0c.   Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                   4.59c      Anomaly      0.43c.

N-W                         5.13c.     Anomaly      0.94c.

Mount    Sorrel          4.7c.      Anomaly      0.5c.

My    Mean                5.1        Anomaly     -0.6c.        

GW's charts above suggest there is a chance that this winter could come in slightly below average, and we still might not get a single flake of snow down in the south. I didn't even really think that was possible! An average winter or below average winter I thought would deliver snow in some form at some point.

It certainly seems my CET forecast for January is not going to help me retain my title. 

Have you not had any snow at all Darren? I got about 5 minutes of moderate snowfall on Saturday 17th.

Nothing in Alton apart from a few flakes at the start of the last cold spell and some tenuous light sleet a couple of days later. Desperate times

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.     Anomaly    1.1c.     Provisional    to   27th.

Metcheck                  4.67c     Anomaly   0.51c.

N-W                          5.16c.    Anomaly   0.97c.

Mount     Sorrel         4.8c.     Anomaly    0.6c. 

My    Mean                5.1c.     Anomaly   -0.6c.  

No, it rained here. I think you had the heavier bit of the shower, and you have a little bit more elevation. The temperature always seems to be a degree colder in Yateley when I collect my daughters from their childminder there.

Met Office Hadley      4.9c.     Anomaly      1.1c.     Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                      4.60c.    Anomaly       0.45c.

N-W                             5.17c.    Anomaly       0.98c.

Mount Sorrel                 4.7c.      Anomaly       0.5c.

My   Mean                     5.1c.      Anomaly      -0.6c....    

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.       Anomaly      1.0c.    Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                      4.48c.     Anomaly       0.33c.

N-W                              5.07c.     Anomaly       0.88c.

Mount  Sorrel                 4.6c.      Anomaly       0.4c.

My    Mean                     5.0c.      Anomaly      -0.7c. 

Met Office Hadley      4.8c.     Anomaly     1.0c.  Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                   4.41c.   Anomaly     0.25c.

N-W                           4.99c.   Anomaly     0.8c.

Mount     Sorrel             4.5c.     Anomaly     0.3c.

My   Mean                     5.0c.     Anomaly    -0.7c.      

My final CET estimate for January is 4.40C which is 0.2C above the 1971-2000 mean and exactly in line with the 1981-2010 mean

Well I was fairly close as the final Hadley CET for January is 4.41C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

Congratulations to Caz and Duncan McAlister who correctly predicted 4.4C.