Can anyone explain why in our current winters chances of snow events from Atlantic push of weather of weather are always non events ?

is there any factor in the 1980s winters that meant the Atlantic always struggled to win through and meant that we always got a good snow event like 81-82 or 84-85

Now it is definite that similiar situations always lead to a non event - reason unknown

The bottom line is why were similar synoptics in the 1980s good for snow but rubbish now

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Stop moaning Siram you could get a good dumping tonight unlike those of us in the south east or north west!

The West Midlands has done very well for snow in past few years at least as good as the 1980's, I know I lived through that decade in Birmingham and 2012/13 was as good as most of them.

Andy

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The Atlantic didn't always lose the battle in the 80's..... the Atlantic hasn't always won the battle in recent years....

There have been numerous wintry events in the past 6 years or so IMBY and IYBY - it's a pity last and this year (yet!) haven't delivered, but then 1988/89 definitely didn't either!

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As a child in the 80's there were many occasions when I peeked out of the curtains at 3am to see everything outside was still dark and green rather than white and orange.

We forget the failures and remember the successes and surprises.

Nothing has changed. 

The atlantic has always ruled and always will.

 

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I think you're correct to a point Sriram.   In the last 5 years or so (barring 2013-14), there have been a decent number of Atlantic systems bringing snowfalls.  However, in the late 1970's and 1980's, there were many major frontal snow events, as in Feb 1978, Jan & Feb 1979, Dec 1981, Jan 1982, Feb 1985. And these, by and large, were much more severe than the frontal snow events in recent years.

What I've noticed since especially 2009, is that the most severe snow events tend to be more from a convective source now (eg. lake effect easterlies), rather than Atlantic frontal.  We still get the strong cold blocks, but for some reason, we don't get the major frontal snow events synchronised with these blocks that we used to get in the 1980's.

 

 

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The number of times the Atlantic has easily pushed through against all the odds are so numerous I can't remember a specific one LOL

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Have to agree

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Indeed, Spring arrives at some point!

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The climate's warmed by as much as a degree since the 80s*, which means some things that were sure-fire certs for snow before will be more marginal, whereas the more marginal events (which are the ones that typically generate the largest amounts of frontal snow) are more likely to be of sleet or rain instead.

If you live life on the edge, as we do in the UK, a tilt towards the milder side makes a big difference!

I was actually quite shocked to see such a large increase. For example, the Met Office site has the following averages:

SE England/ Central southern England

1961-1990 averages for D/J/F: 7.6 / 6.6 / 6.9

1981-2010 averages for D/J/F: 7.9 / 7.5 / 7.7

SW England / S Wales

1961-1990 averages for D/J/F: 7.8 / 6.9 / 6.8

1981-2010 averages for D/J/F: 8.0 / 7.5 / 7.6

Midlands

1961-1990 averages for D/J/F: 6.7 / 5.9 / 6.0

1981-2010 averages for D/J/F: 6.9 / 6.7 / 7.0

* December's not changed much, but the extra warmth in January and February is marked. Today is a case in point: 1.6C with rain (and the odd bit of sleet) for several hours. If it was 0.9 degrees colder it would have been much more likely to fall as snow.

Of course there's more to it than that (not least the remarkable absence of week+ easterlies) but that small amount of warming holds a lot of the blame IMO.

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Excellent stuff Darren and shows in black and white how things have changed. Of course a 30 year average isn't compelling but it's a decent indicator that winters are warmer than they were.
And the long period easterly, yes it seems a thing of the past now. Even more so the fabled Channel Low, the long wait for one it seems will have to continue.

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Indeed, given the frequency of easterlies through the 80s and even into the 90s I have to wonder what's changed to stop them from occurring. Were we just lucky back then? Possibly. Is there another factor which has cropped up to stop them from happening? Nobody can say for sure.

Another thing which intrigues me is that in the 80s, and again into the 90s, snow fences were erected without fail every year in the fields along the main road of the Isle. Some years they stood there, garish orange against green fields. Other times when we had snow you'd see them half-buried, with a mound behind them where the snow had been deposited. They vanished in 1997 and I've not seen any since.

It's quite odd to think that there are adults out there now who've never seen large icicles hanging from the eaves, who've never known a run of ice days, who've not seen a foot of level snow or snowdrifts or seen those snow fences strung out parallel to the main road. I guess the way to look at it is to be thankful I've seen and experienced it, as opposed to being morose that it no longer happens!

 

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Agree. Perhaps we should consider ourselves fortunate to have seen those conditions - country lanes full of snow up to the field level, those fantastic huge curved overhangs on snowdrifts. Great stuff and sorely missed.

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Although much rarer,we seem to be forgetting feb/march 2013.So winter isn`t quite over yet!

We had a proper easterly and sub -10 850s in 2005 which certainly delivered for a couple of weeks in this neck of the woods. But it's been nine years since then. And I agree about the snow fences, Darren. The A20 between Denham and Charing used to have about three miles of them but I haven't seen any there for years. I remember incredible icicles hanging from the guttering back in the 70s and 80s - some as much as 2ft in length. Again, have not seen those for some time.

Jan 1987 still stands out for depth of cold and depth of snow. A relatively short-lived easterly but the most potent of my lifetime.

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Yup, 2005 was the last decent easterly here - looking at my records 2012/3 delivered a little bit of slush but didn't even manage a covering of snow. 2005 was interesting here in that we had snow every single day for a fortnight, but as temperatures were above freezing during the day (and during most nights) it never managed to equal the classic easterlies of the mid 90s and earlier. The snow was heavy, wet stuff rather than dry powder snow.

Incidentally I asked at the post office earlier (as I've got the day off, I walked into the village) and the postmaster - who's been here longer than I have! - said that the council used to pay the farmers to put out snow fences each year, regardless of the long-term weather forecast. Funding for that stopped in the late 90s and as a result the farmers don't put them out. The council's been very lucky since then, as we've not had a proper easterly with drifting powder snow... but the next time we do, and there will be a next time, I'm sure, it won't be much fun on the roads!

1995 was the last time we had a foot of snow and was also the last time I saw icicles (which in one memorable case extended all the way from the eaves of a bungalow to the ground, creating a pillar of ice! I was really impressed by that). The winter of 96/97 was the last time a daytime high of -1C or less was recorded here.

 

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I think also a major difference is perception

The sheer wealth of free synoptics on offer in todays world - that are updated many times a day, often stretching into weeks in advance vs the 1980s where it was a mixture of knowing what time the weather forecast was on the TV, what came free in the newspaper and Ceefax. Means you have never been able to get a build up about an event as much as you do today. We talk at lenght on here, and build up excitement based on something that probably wont happen. The Weather data we get today - as useful as it sometimes is, is often its own worst enemy as forecasts often over or under forecast.

now its even worse with Social media being used by newspapers to grab attention.

Add into this the fact that our memory only serves to remember the important memories, ie - when it actually snowed - rather than all those winter days when it didnt snow - much like today. Aswell as a very much IMBY effect. ie. - you probably werent aware when you were a kid that it was probably snowing not 10 miles from your house, vs today where theres websites setup to report using social media where its snowing - aswell as actual Radar data.

I dont think theres much difference, and alot of what difference there are, are probably a mix of what you can remember and natural cycles.

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Icicles are not a good measurement of how cold its not getting.  What this is a good sign of - is much better insulation in peoples house.  Much the same reason people getting ice on the inside of their windows is very uncommon in modern central heating fitted houses.

2013, 2010, 2009 (and even 2012 - i believe?) all delivered nicely in Kent so im led to believe from some of my friends

2013 stands out when the channel saw some incredibly cold weather with strong winds too hitting Jersey.

 

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Oh, they're a good measure of cold alright. My house has exactly the same insulation it did in the 80s (and the same radiators and guttering too!), yet it hasn't seen an iclcle in years.

The way I see it, the requirements are:

• Enough snow to cover the roof comfortably, ie a few inches


• Enough heat leaking through the roof to melt the snow from underneath, causing it to slide into gutters (and overflow them)


• Cold enough for long enough that any extra meltwater drips over the side of the guttering, then freezes

We seldom have enough snow for point 1 these days, meaning that when it's heated it just slides into the guttering but doesn't cause them to overflow.

Temperatures are generally too mild for point 3 to take affect. It's the day after day of subzero temperatures that encourages icicles to grow and we simply haven't had that for nearly 20 years here.

Other people's properties may be different, but I can be 100% sure on this as I've lived in the same house for 32 years!

As for parts of Kent doing well in those years you mention, yes, there were localised areas which had far more snow than here. However, seeing as this place always used to "cop it" in the 80s and 90s, it's clear to me that we're just not seeing the same setups (and depth of cold) we once did.

 

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It would have been very rare to get snow from a setup like this back in the 80s too. There's no "cold block" for the Atlantic systems to battle against - we shouldn't even really be getting any snow at all in this setup so anyone who is should treat it as a bonus IMO!

Snow has always been the exception rather than the rule in this country. I remember snow being a very rare treat back in the 80s but to read some of the posts on here about that decade you'd think that every winter delivered a nationwide dump in the 80s!

From a personal perspective here in central southern England the period from 2008 to 2013 delivered at least as much snow as the whole of the 1980s - and a maximum depth greater than even 1981/82.

 

And as for icicles, was everyone asleep in 2010? I have photos of icicles easily 3 feet long from Jan 2010, after 25cm of snow was followed by days of bright sunshine and bitter nights. 

 

They don't make nostalgia like they used to, eh?

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Indeed, that's because the 80s and 90s saw quite a few easterlies and they only really delivered in places like mine, close to the North Sea. We had a foot of snow here in the following winters:

1981/2, 1984/5, 1985/6, 1986/7, 1990/91, 1995/96 - nothing that deep since then.

Eight inches was reached in the above winters, as well as 1993/4 and 1996/7.

Since then 2010 saw 6 inches on one day, with the greatest depth other than that being 3 inches. We did relatively poorly from that due to warm sectors. 2005 saw 7 inches, briefly, and is the nearest thing we've had to a classic easterly.

We really are overdue a nice cold easterly or two, but sadly the weather doesn't work that way!

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I think it's more geographic. Kent has always done well out of long-fetch easterlies, much more so than any other part of the country given that there's only a short stretch of warm water between us and the continent. And there were several easterlies during the 1980s that delivered here. For example, during February 1986 we had two teams of five playing ice hockey on a pond at school every day for two weeks. Not a lot of snow then but temperatures hovered at, below or only slightly above freezing for the best part of a month. I remember everything being absolutely tinder dry because of the freezing wind that blew every day from the east.

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I would say its down to the AMO being in it's positive phase, hence the SST's are warmer than back in the 80s. 

Yes

I think people have to take into consideration that major Atlantic systems engaging cold blocks that stall rarely effect the whole country anyway.

For instance Feb 1978 blizzard. How many people outside the SW were effected by this? No one.

Feb 1996, how much snow fell east of the A1?

 

 

 

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I reckon we see les snow falling here than we used to 30-40 years ago. It still might not have settled but we used to get days of wet snow more often. Now it is nearly always rain unless we have a colder ,drier continental influence.

 

Yes and much quoted 81/82 brought bugger all here in January and very little in December.  Most of the mid 80's snow here came from very cold unstable easterlies, not Atlantic systems - bar of course the wonderful January of 1984.  Even with Atlantic sytems the snow fall is very variable, 3 examples.

1) March 1987 nothing here, 10miles east considerable snow with large drifts. 

2) February 1996 as mentioned, loads here 10 inch level fall,  but 4 miles further inland here virtually nothing had fallen whilst 8 miles to south well over a foot with severe drifting,

3) March 2014 a couple of flakes here, 2 miles north a dusting,  10 miles east considerable cover, 25 miles south absolute snowmegeddon.

I dont think anything has really changed, it's just nostalgia.