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Sinky1970
25 January 2015 19:27:15
Surprise, surprise the high on the ECM guess what - topples, long way off i know, but it was almost odds on.
Gooner
25 January 2015 19:29:07

Surprise, surprise the high on the ECM guess what - topples, long way off i know, but it was almost odds on.

Originally Posted by: Sinky1970 


What are you on about , that is day 10, nothing is odds on at that distance,


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
25 January 2015 19:51:02
Sorry if off topic but wonder if someone can advise please:

I am going skiing on the dolomites in South Tyrol region and it seems to me that area does not get a lot of snow compared to the French and Swiss Alps. It appears that any north or NW type set ups seem to dissolve as they get to this part of England (reminds me of New Malden when it comes to snow). Does anyone know under what type of synoptic set up they are likely to get a big damp of snow like the one that is heading for the French Alps later this week?

Thanks.
Kingston Upon Thames
Matty H
25 January 2015 20:06:48


From Ian Fergusson;


W COUNTRY Good f'cast model agreement on broad theme Weds-Thurs (cold & windy; wintry showers). Varying outcomes by Sat (cold nonetheless!)



 


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Wintry showers to snow to all levels, back to wintry showers. All in the space of 24 hours. 


Girthmeister
25 January 2015 20:33:59


 


Wintry showers to snow to all levels, back to wintry showers. All in the space of 24 hours. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


Oh dear, winter is over, blowtorch temperatures, barbecues, lawn chairs and Speedos instead. 


 


Oops, wrong forum 


 


Still looks cold for quite a few days, from midweek, judging by the ensembles, with a good clustering between the 29th Jan and 3rd Feb. And disturbances look very likely. Quietly getting interested.

Essan
25 January 2015 20:41:23


 Wintry showers to snow to all levels, back to wintry showers. All in the space of 24 hours. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



A normal spell of wintry weather then.

Sadly, no 30c heatwaves for at least a week


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Solar Cycles
25 January 2015 20:42:55


 


Wintry showers to snow to all levels, back to wintry showers. All in the space of 24 hours. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I'm checking my tea leaves after the last weeks non entity, I think the MetO warnings are as piss poor as the GFS snow risk charts.


Of course I'm still backing them as it's showing what I want this coming week.

GIBBY
25 January 2015 21:08:12


 


Wintry showers to snow to all levels, back to wintry showers. All in the space of 24 hours. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


With respect Matty I think you are reading too much into those Tweets. All of them today ring from the same hymn sheet the way I read them. The term Wintry Showers used to cover the parameter of hail as well as snow and I still see snow making it all the way down to sea level later in the week away from the immediate coast.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Robertski
25 January 2015 21:12:19


I'm checking my tea leaves after the last weeks non entity, I think the MetO warnings are as piss poor as the GFS snow risk charts.


Of course I'm still backing them as it's showing what I want this coming week.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


 


The Meto see no big deal at this stage, especially for the South. Very much a waiting game as always.

GIBBY
25 January 2015 21:14:14


I'm checking my tea leaves after the last weeks non entity, I think the MetO warnings are as piss poor as the GFS snow risk charts.


Of course I'm still backing them as it's showing what I want this coming week.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


From your smilie I take it your comment was made tongue in cheek but they have given a early heads up for snowfall and potential disruption in the NW from Wednesday and I fully expect that to be expanded to include other areas tomorrow covering the end of the week. You cannot expect them to highlight snowfall in any specific place or indeed area at this range. I do agree though that the GFS snow risk charts are poor.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
sizzle
25 January 2015 21:23:36


 


With respect Matty I think you are reading too much into those Tweets. All of them today ring from the same hymn sheet the way I read them. The term Wintry Showers used to cover the parameter of hail as well as snow and I still see snow making it all the way down to sea level later in the week away from the immediate coast.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

I sure hope London see snow. last time we saw snow was feb  2012. 

Matty H
25 January 2015 21:23:54


 


With respect Matty I think you are reading too much into those Tweets. All of them today ring from the same hymn sheet the way I read them. The term Wintry Showers used to cover the parameter of hail as well as snow and I still see snow making it all the way down to sea level later in the week away from the immediate coast.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


I should have put a tongue smiley after it. I don't even read them at all other than when someone posts them on here. I certainly don't take them at face value. Ian isn't one to ramp. Despite some hilarious comments that appear on here now and again about certain forecasters being mild rampers, I'm certain none of the pros show anything else but a sensible view on what the current output is. They leave the crap to idiots like Madden. 


Solar Cycles
25 January 2015 21:26:22


 


From your smilie I take it your comment was made tongue in cheek but they have given a early heads up for snowfall and potential disruption in the NW from Wednesday and I fully expect that to be expanded to include other areas tomorrow covering the end of the week. You cannot expect them to highlight snowfall in any specific place or indeed area at this range. I do agree though that the GFS snow risk charts are poor.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

Indeed it was Gibby, but I want snow IMBY.

White Meadows
25 January 2015 21:32:26
NAO index shows any Atlantic ridging will be short lived, with values retuning to positive into early Feb:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 
GIBBY
25 January 2015 21:35:51


 


I should have put a tongue smiley after it. I don't even read them at all other than when someone posts them on here. I certainly don't take them at face value. Ian isn't one to ramp. Despite some hilarious comments that appear on here now and again about certain forecasters being mild rampers, I'm certain none of the pros show anything else but a sensible view on what the current output is. They leave the crap to idiots like Madden. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 I'm sure that your more likely to see snow than me with your higher elevation but I'll stick my neck out that we'll both see a little at least.


We better 'cause my local paper has been pressing me for info and I have probably put the damper on it in saying that we have the best chance to get snow this Winter. 'Kiss of Death' springs to mind.


Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset



Look up my New Facebook Weather Page  for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Matty H
25 January 2015 22:00:18


 


 I'm sure that your more likely to see snow than me with your higher elevation but I'll stick my neck out that we'll both see a little at least.


We better 'cause my local paper has been pressing me for info and I have probably put the damper on it in saying that we have the best chance to get snow this Winter. 'Kiss of Death' springs to mind.


Originally Posted by: GIBBY 


I'm not that high up. About 150m here. Not sure what that is in feet


Hamptonian
25 January 2015 22:05:17


I sure hope London see snow. last time we saw snow was feb  2012. 


Originally Posted by: sizzle 


 


Sorry OT - but we saw snow in January 2013 and April 2013.. nothing since then though.


 

Essan
25 January 2015 22:06:11


 


I'm not that high up. About 150m here. Not sure what that is in feet


Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Thats positively alpine compared with some of us

(speaking from 36m asl)


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Russwirral
25 January 2015 22:33:03
The Beebs/METO view is very interesting. Especially from a longevity point of view

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30973989 
White Meadows
25 January 2015 22:49:37

The Beebs/METO view is very interesting. Especially from a longevity point of view

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

">http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30973989


yes probably the single most promising piece of info for coldies yet this winter. MetO sitting up and starting to take signals seriously!

Karl Guille
25 January 2015 22:53:05

An interesting 18z GFS Op with the cold fighting to hold on beyond day 10. Clearly a northerly dominated scenario which is far from ideal for those of us south of the Channel but fascinating to watch nonetheless and the chance of snow for most on a fairly extended basis. Interesting times.


edit: very close to some serious cold in the far south in extended FI. Worth watching IMBY! ;) 


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Joe Bloggs
25 January 2015 22:55:59

Not much comment on the 18z GFS?


A few winters ago a run like that would have had this place in absolute meltdown. :-) 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gooner
25 January 2015 22:56:15

NAO index shows any Atlantic ridging will be short lived, with values retuning to positive into early Feb:
Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html


Isn't that produced from a model rum though?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stormchaser
25 January 2015 22:56:34

Perspective is everything... I'm smiling at the thought of seeing at least a few snow showers with the chance of a cm or two on the ground, whereas a few on here seem to be seeking the sort of heavy falls of snow that are usually restricted to a lucky few places.


This is largely down to what I consider to be normal IMBY; snow not usually amounting to much or struggling to settle, ice days rare as hens teeth... well, almost!


 


With respect to that, the early hours of Thursday are looking unusually favourable across the south for an unstable airflow capable of producing more than trace amounts of precipitation. Further north, it's not quite so unusual - but still toward the cold end of what can be achieved with a polar maritime air mass (as opposed to Arctic maritime, which comes into play this weekend into next week).


 


Speaking of the weekend, signals seem very mixed at the moment depending on who you listen to or what you look at.
Arguably, the surface conditions may be along those very lines - a real kitchen sink of rain, sleet and snow, the latter favoured either where colder, drier air wraps in from the continent or where precipitation is particularly heavy and dew points around zero or below. This second mechanism is by far the best for significant falls and accumulations of snow, and will likely be sporadic in nature when looking at the UK as a whole. I expect there may be many instances of 'they got a lot more down the road from here, just my luck!'


For what it's worth, the Countryfile forecast this afternoon emphasised a tendency for the air to become colder still this weekend - the cahrts shown being along the lines of the UKMO 12z (unsurprisingly) - though with the caveat regarding how far south it gets, which probably depends heavily on whether the Atlantic feeds a shortwave low across into the UK/Euro trough - this could introduce less cold air to the south for a time. Something to be more bothered about much nearer the time.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
25 January 2015 22:58:32


">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Isn't that produced from a model rum though?



GEFS ensembles I think - so only worth as much as they are longer range i.e. I wouldn't trade a nice sandwich for it.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On

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