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Medlock Vale Weather
27 January 2015 21:02:46


 


I think you're being a little pessimistic.


Don't get me wrong, January 2010 this ain't. But I do think there is a moderately good chance of snow accumulation overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.


Positive number 1 ---> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.gif This is a near perfect wind direction to push big showers across much of Greater Manchester and North Cheshire, with the potential for thunder


Positive number 2----> Dewpoints are comfortably below freezing http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/taup/15012906_2712.gif - nothing marginal about those


Positive number 3-----> with dewpoints like the above, 2m temps like these are very very allowing for snow http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/15012906_2712.gif (remember if you add together the dewpoint and air temp, if the answer is below zero, it'll almost certainly snow)


Positive number 4 ----> wet bulb freezing levels look ok http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/thfr/15012906_2712.gif 


Positive number 5-------> the oh so accurate GFS snow accumulation charts say it's gonna snow loads http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/weas/15012906_2712.gif haha


In all seriousness, this is not nailed on, but this is the best chance my patch has had for a long time, and has way more potential than the last cold spell IMO.


A few flies in the ointment -


1) EURO4 has the bulk of the showers missing G Man altogether. Based on past experience, I think this is wrong. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2712.gif


2) NMM/WRF has 2m temps a little too high, with rain/sleet for much of the region away from the Pennines. I'm hoping GFS and Euro4 are closer to the mark.


OVERALL, my hunch is cold with snow lying on Thursday morning, turning to rain and melting by about lunchtime. Possibly turning cold enough again overnight Thursday though.


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Well you're probably right, it does look better, especially after the updates this evening across the models. It wasn't so much earlier in the day but I have more confidence of at least a few cm by the end of Thursday morning - that's probably jinxed it now 

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Gary L
27 January 2015 21:27:01


 


I think you're being a little pessimistic.


Don't get me wrong, January 2010 this ain't. But I do think there is a moderately good chance of snow accumulation overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.


Positive number 1 ---> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.gif This is a near perfect wind direction to push big showers across much of Greater Manchester and North Cheshire, with the potential for thunder


Positive number 2----> Dewpoints are comfortably below freezing http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/taup/15012906_2712.gif - nothing marginal about those


Positive number 3-----> with dewpoints like the above, 2m temps like these are very very allowing for snow http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/15012906_2712.gif (remember if you add together the dewpoint and air temp, if the answer is below zero, it'll almost certainly snow)


Positive number 4 ----> wet bulb freezing levels look ok http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/thfr/15012906_2712.gif 


Positive number 5-------> the oh so accurate GFS snow accumulation charts say it's gonna snow loads http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/weas/15012906_2712.gif haha


In all seriousness, this is not nailed on, but this is the best chance my patch has had for a long time, and has way more potential than the last cold spell IMO.


A few flies in the ointment -


1) EURO4 has the bulk of the showers missing G Man altogether. Based on past experience, I think this is wrong. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2712.gif


2) NMM/WRF has 2m temps a little too high, with rain/sleet for much of the region away from the Pennines. I'm hoping GFS and Euro4 are closer to the mark.


OVERALL, my hunch is cold with snow lying on Thursday morning, turning to rain and melting by about lunchtime. Possibly turning cold enough again overnight Thursday though.


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Good summary, looks like a chance to me of snow even in Manchester, it's a done deal for significant accumulation at 600ft provided the showers arrive IMO!

Patrick01
27 January 2015 21:33:44


OVERALL, my hunch is cold with snow lying on Thursday morning, turning to rain and melting by about lunchtime. Possibly turning cold enough again overnight Thursday though.


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Don't forget the probability of hail (how can us lot on the coast ever bloody forget hail)! It could be snow to graupel or soft hail inland during warmer parts of the day? Would be better than snow to rain anyway, though I'm not entirely sure how the relationship between temperature and PPN type works/whether there's much of a link.

glenogle
27 January 2015 22:37:19

Today, was really mild relatively speaking locally (+7) , its been baltic recently, but last couple days been mild. Next few days = ski glencoe

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Medlock Vale Weather
27 January 2015 22:49:53

Considering GFS over-exaggerates snow fall amounts on the below link I think I will go for 5cm IMBY.


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015012718/42-780UK.GIF?27-18

Alan in Medlock Valley - Oldham's frost hollow. 103 metres above sea level.
What is a frost hollow? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Frost-hollow.htm 
Quantum
28 January 2015 00:00:40

My snow risk map, same as usual. I base this on a wide range of short term models and take into account the whole of the lower atmosphere. As well as the careful human input I now use scripted algorithms based on the ensembles and GFS output to improve these maps, their input is also taken into account. As usual the probability is for low level ground for non-negligible snowfall (i.e snow that you don't need to squint at), the probability represents the chance any given location inside that probability zone will see snow in the 24 hours from now.


 


Addendum: Probability slightly too high for south Yorkshire and parts of the central south eastern midlands. Probability too low for NW Ireland and N Ireland. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
KevBrads1
28 January 2015 06:56:56


 


I think you're being a little pessimistic.


Don't get me wrong, January 2010 this ain't. But I do think there is a moderately good chance of snow accumulation overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.


Positive number 1 ---> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.gif This is a near perfect wind direction to push big showers across much of Greater Manchester and North Cheshire, with the potential for thunder


Positive number 2----> Dewpoints are comfortably below freezing http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/taup/15012906_2712.gif - nothing marginal about those


Positive number 3-----> with dewpoints like the above, 2m temps like these are very very allowing for snow http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/tmp2/15012906_2712.gif (remember if you add together the dewpoint and air temp, if the answer is below zero, it'll almost certainly snow)


Positive number 4 ----> wet bulb freezing levels look ok http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/thfr/15012906_2712.gif 


Positive number 5-------> the oh so accurate GFS snow accumulation charts say it's gonna snow loads http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/weas/15012906_2712.gif haha


In all seriousness, this is not nailed on, but this is the best chance my patch has had for a long time, and has way more potential than the last cold spell IMO.


A few flies in the ointment -


1) EURO4 has the bulk of the showers missing G Man altogether. Based on past experience, I think this is wrong. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis12/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2712.gif


2) NMM/WRF has 2m temps a little too high, with rain/sleet for much of the region away from the Pennines. I'm hoping GFS and Euro4 are closer to the mark.


OVERALL, my hunch is cold with snow lying on Thursday morning, turning to rain and melting by about lunchtime. Possibly turning cold enough again overnight Thursday though.


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Anyone remember the thundersnow that night of 4th February 2013? Thunder, lightning, heavy snow? That was a short cold burst from WNW, less cold uppers came the following afternoon, actually accompanied by snow on a trough.  Looks a similar set-up to this.


The next morning.


UserPostedImage


 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
CAPE-steve
28 January 2015 07:31:54


My snow risk map, same as usual. I base this on a wide range of short term models and take into account the whole of the lower atmosphere. As well as the careful human input I now use scripted algorithms based on the ensembles and GFS output to improve these maps, their input is also taken into account. As usual the probability is for low level ground for non-negligible snowfall (i.e snow that you don't need to squint at), the probability represents the chance any given location inside that probability zone will see snow in the 24 hours from now.


 


Addendum: Probability slightly too high for south Yorkshire and parts of the central south eastern midlands. Probability too low for NW Ireland and N Ireland. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Based on the current output and past experience at this location I think 60% for south Yorkshire is a very cautious figure. Significant snow maybe, but any snow at all?

nsrobins
28 January 2015 08:14:02

Some good analysis. Just an observation, some of it is regional and there's nothing wrong with this but please excuse the bias in my comments.


For C S England it looks like Saturday and Sunday, when the deeper uppers push south, ppn will be at a premium but that's normal in a N flow. We are in pretty much the worst position for convective flow in any angle from 340deg to 20deg.
The interest starts on Monday and it's related to the energy pushing SE from south of Iceland (slider, disruption., whatever you like to call it).
Last 2 runs of GFS develop a low that moves SE then E along the N coast of France. All parameters are safely in the snow zone on it's N flank, so this needs to be watched and could represent our best shot at seeing snow from this spell. Areas further East may benefit from streamers from Tues so another to watch.


I am not expecting anything more than a sleety shower from now until Monday.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Deep Powder
28 January 2015 08:34:30


Some good analysis. Just an observation, some of it is regional and there's nothing wrong with this but please excuse the bias in my comments.


For C S England it looks like Saturday and Sunday, when the deeper uppers push south, ppn will be at a premium but that's normal in a N flow. We are in pretty much the worst position for convective flow in any angle from 340deg to 20deg.
The interest starts on Monday and it's related to the energy pushing SE from south of Iceland (slider, disruption., whatever you like to call it).
Last 2 runs of GFS develop a low that moves SE then E along the N coast of France. All parameters are safely in the snow zone on it's N flank, so this needs to be watched and could represent our best shot at seeing snow from this spell. Areas further East may benefit from streamers from Tues so another to watch.


I am not expecting anything more than a sleety shower from now until Monday.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Hi Neil I was looking at that one with interest as well. As it moves east the northern flank of the low just about fringes up enough, into the south, to give us a snow chance. As its at quite a range still, relatively speaking, let's hope it moves just a tad further north and provides us with a pleasant treat......😉


PS I see we have another hack underway......plonkers.......

Near Leatherhead 100masl (currently living in China since September 2019)
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!
HOTandCOLD
28 January 2015 09:17:46

Thursday morning rush hour looks an interesting one (Euro4 00 run) for many from the Midlands north.  With typical IMBY bias I'll concentrate on the Midlands.


 


I assume the snow over the Midlands is the trough shown about to exit south-east on the fax hence more of a 'clump' than a line of showers?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif


 



 


Air temp, dew points and 850's look favourable for all snow with no pesky rain getting in the way for most.  Perhaps air temp the issue for far East Midlands and in to East Anglia?


 



 



 



 


MODS - Is posting a few images in one post okay or do you prefer individual posts with one image each or ditch the images and just post links?  

Saint Snow
28 January 2015 09:24:42


Some good analysis. Just an observation, some of it is regional and there's nothing wrong with this but please excuse the bias in my comments.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Hi Neil. FWIW (which is not a lot, admittedly), I've no problem at all in regional/MBY analysis - as long as it's made clear. Regional/local posts add really excellent forecasts.


What's frustrating is logging in and reading several posts saying generally that overnight NWP (for instance) has massively backtracked and an impending cold/snowy spell is cancelled/really ramped up. When you open a few models, you scratch your head thinking "Eh? That's not what I'm seeing." But then you realise that, naturally, you're focusing on your own neck of the woods (where it's a case of 'as you were', and the posters are focusing on their own, where there's been a change.


Apologies for sounding self-important - not like me at all  - just wanted to clarify my position.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Patrick01
28 January 2015 09:25:34

First hail/rain showers here - that didn't take long. Very gusty winds in the showers. I'm still recovering from the excitement of that squall earlier.

SnowJon
28 January 2015 09:36:29
Snowing in Belfast!
Bangor, Co Down
Saint Snow
28 January 2015 09:38:43


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Have you made that odd-looking incursion of the 40% chance line to include MBY on purpose?



 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
28 January 2015 10:14:48


First hail/rain showers here - that didn't take long. Very gusty winds in the showers. I'm still recovering from the excitement of that squall earlier.


Originally Posted by: Patrick01 


 


My drive to work was in a mix of heavy rain and heavy hail showers, blown horizontally on an increasingly blustery wind. Just had a really heavy hail shower in the city centre, followed by heavy rain; now it's brightened up.


 


Incidentally, by midnight the temp IMBY had fallen to 5.9c. By 7am, this had risen to 9.1c.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Frost Hollow
28 January 2015 10:16:58

Heavy prolonged snow showers, several cm fallen this morning


0.1c


 

Skreever
28 January 2015 10:19:26
Blustery sleet showers - nothing lying
Veteran of winter of 62/63
By Scapa Flow, Orkney
CAPE-steve
28 January 2015 10:20:54
Rain already turning to sleet and wet snow in the heavier bursts. Cold air starting to dig in now.

Already Quantum's 60% looks iffy.
Tim A
28 January 2015 10:30:04
Snow mixed in the last shower. Down to 2.8c. Hoping the overnight period will deliver some significant snow.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
CAPE-steve
28 January 2015 10:32:40
Heavy wet snow in north Sheffield. We're on the edge!
Kev71
28 January 2015 10:34:23

Snowing where I work in Sheffield 200m asl.

Saint Snow
28 January 2015 10:40:06

Sheffield again



 


Question: Is Sheffield the snowiest city in England?


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jason H
28 January 2015 10:41:12
Looking forward to seeing updates in this thread over the coming days. I am not a NIMBY at all. Of course I'd like to see snow at my location, but love seeing reports and specifically pictures from all over the country. Have fun you North Westerners. 🙂
I feel great! so maybe I might just
Search for a 9 to 5, if I strive
Then maybe I'll stay alive
Bexleyheath, Kent.
Saint Snow
28 January 2015 10:52:33

Cold air starting to dig in now.

Originally Posted by: CAPE-steve 


 


Very much so!


As I said earlier, the temp in MBY at 7am was 9.1c. Looking on XC Weather, the temps at both Liverpool & Manchester Airports is now 4c. Quite a drop over a few morning hours, and long may the temp drop continue!


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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