Hi SC

UKMO 120 not without interest...

Sometimes the models are dragged slowly but surely toward the correct solution... as it is the angle of the trough and strength of the ridge are right on the periphery of what could allow a trough extension SE.

The GFS 12z is amazingly close to the 06z - just a tiny bit stronger with the mid-Atlantic ridge and slower with the Atlantic trough approaching Greenland on Wednesday.

As long as you dont mind sharing it with the East Mids...

I think its going to track much further West tho

Too much energy over and not under. GEM looks like a red herring

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012912/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

Tasty!

Seems there is just enough trough disruption to deposit a small cut-off low west of the Azores which is good for encouraging the mid-Atlantic ridge to extend through Iceland.

GFS has the same idea, quite a trend going on today 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012912/UN144-21.GIF?29-17

Same with UKMO

4th Feb looks like some possible snow for the south east if this verified. (UKMO 144) Worth watching as a trend.  If that high can hold 500 further miles north then could be good. Edit - this would be dry for most, but if the trend to holding the high a little further north continues then could be okay.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012912/gfsnh-0-168.png?12

The best we can do is a Murr sausage

 flaccid.

Knife edge stuff - ideally the HP to our west and north will link up with the Siberian HP nudging into the picture to the NE, creating a mega-block.

There was a lengthy, detailed post by Tamara earlier today on NW which described what the background drivers are pointing toward for the next few weeks.

To put it in a nutshell, persistent mid-Atlantic ridging, attempting to reach out to the Siberian High at times, and with an overall trend toward higher-latitude positioning (i.e. the NAO turning increasingly negative).

I think this is suggesting that we should be looking for a repeat of low heights dropping into Europe at some point in the 10-14 day range, with the ridge through Scandinavia subsiding and then the mid-Atlantic ridge returning toward Iceland or even Greenland having been briefly overrun by the Atlantic.

Personally, I'm not so sure that the Atlantic will get anywhere near us within the next 10 days if the vortex is as compact as shown on the UKMO 12z. There was an easterly in 1991 that came about in this way... not that there is a cold pool on tap of the magnitude that we had back then.

As long as ECM is along the lines of UKMO or GFS out to day 6 (preferably UKMO for the mid-Atlantic), I will spend the evening a happy man as I keep an eye on the potential for a bit of snow tonight. I have seen some wet snowflakes in the mix so far today, so the next target is pure snow. Settling snow would be a real bonus prior to the weekend.

Unfortunately GEM coming into line with the big boys now

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015012912/gemnh-0-132.png?12

Yes, it is looking potentially wintry on 3rd Feb (114-120), but it has dropped the Icelandic Omega High of the 0z as expected, still a decent-ish chart by the standards of the last 2 winters.

I think it is remarkable how days ago, the GFS picked out this for the 6th Feb right at the far reaches of the 15 days range and had stuck with the idea all the way through and is now sliding into the hi-res end of the output. If I can think of a good example of a "trend", this would be it.




  If I am going to keep missing out on the snow action, then I am hoping that the rest of this winter will run its course without any more fuss and drama.
  I can almost smell the scent of cut grass and fumes from the petrol lawnmower on me, and I've not even been out to cut the grass (had to fight the temptation to do that this morning, though).

Is that a polar low in northwest Scotland?  Hope it's heading for the Midlands!

Please tell me you are not suggesting that is a "poor chart" in terms of wintry conditions etc. 

This FI chart has -8s over much of the S and E.  But it has that "look" about it and the jet riding over the top of Scandi will push everything SE into Europe, and the cooler spell is done for.

....and hear the lively activity from the BBQ being hosted by the chav family next door but 3; smell the burning Tesco Value Horseburgers; have that repetitive 'garage toons' beat reverberate through your skeletal structure; watch the bitch-fight in the street after Chardonnay tried to get off with Chatelle's boyf.

Etc, Etc.

Sometimes, Ian, you're better off with galeforce wind and rain.

Jesus.

I don't think I'll be coming to St Helens any time soon.

On a serious note, I'm actually looking forward to Spring now this cold spell is turning into another chilly wet affair away from hills & north of the M4.

The models are already trending toward an Atlantic breakdown after next week.

Only "North of the M4"? Are there actually any hills south of the M4? 

Anyway here is the UKMO 12z +144hr chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Any chance "our High" could ridge up to the Siberia High? 

Is it me or is this LP system a little too far west to bring more persistent sleet and snow to Wales, Ireland and the southwest on Sunday into Monday!?