While there is a lot going on in the near term, inconsistency with the details makes analysis rather unreliable... so instead I have just given some thought as to what might come our way as we progress beyond week 1 of February:
For starters, I am increasingly suspicious that the idea of a ridge from the Atlantic linking with the Siberian High via Scandinavia has been a product of the usual GFS bias to take low heights in the NW Atlantic to the NE when actually it is more likely to progress east as per the ECM 12z op run. Such a progression is also just beginning on the UKMO 12z run at day 6.
This means we play a more complicated game, looking to the Siberian High to disrupt troughs and send low heights down through Europe. ECM manages the right sort of thing for day 8. The next trough could have behaved in a similar way but the model really blew that up into a monster... if this feature was slower and/or less intense, the outlook for days 11-12 would be more promising for us.
A large part of the reasoning behind my suspicions is the modeled behaviour of the stratospheric vortex; it's indicated to remain displaced to Siberia, which encourages major troughs to vacate the Greenland area.
This situation matches what we have been seeing at work to help bring about our current Euro-trough setup. This leads me to the impression that the potential is very much there for another major trough (which is what I like to call the large-scale, long-wave troughs) dropping into Europe by mid month.
BUT this can only be achieved with the help of enough amplification upstream (U.S. to western N. Atlantic). So what are the odds of getting enough amplification again this time?
Well... for the situation we have now, despite the displaced stratospheric vortex being predicted well in advance, the models originally had the jet too flat and progressive, with the major troughs over Greenland just drifting over to Siberia, the flow through the UK being generally from the west.
We then saw the models adjust to a less progressive solution and all of a sudden, the dig of low heights into Europe manifested, with the Azores High taking a hike NW.
This time around, background signals remain similar and with growing support for a more blocked result if we can manage to cycle through the sequence again, thanks in part to the consistently modeled development of a vastly stronger and more expansive Siberian High.
So concludes an experimental attempt to foresee the general direction of travel for a period some 14 days ahead. I can't promise that the Atlantic westerlies won't manage to find their way in for a time at least... let alone that we'll see all the blocks fall into the right places by mid-month or even at any point until the end of February. Such is the problem with long range forecasting 
For what it's worth... as of days 10-11 on the 12z GFS run, it was actually pretty close to following this route. It may be that adjustments away from it's 'Murr Sausage' idea toward something more like ECM's 'disrupting Icelandic troughs' idea has produced a less attractive halfway house.
The ECM 12z actually appears to be on route to the major trough ending up further east than we are seeing with the current event. Acceptable here if a long-fetch easterly was the end result... yeah I'm that greedy 
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser