That polar low has suffered for it's track across N. Ireland; the feed of warm, rising air into it's core was lost for long enough to cause the circulation to lose some of its identity.
These things really are like hurricanes in a lot of ways... just on a much lower energy scale!
Since moving back over water, the core has been trying to reform over the Irish Sea, and with some decent convection it seems the NW tip of Wales is about to be slammed pretty hard. Not sure if it will bring rain or snow though.
By the time it reaches southernmost counties, it's remains are expected to bring some snow showers here based on the recent BBC forecasts. The high-res models haven't seemed so keen though, in fact nearly all output shows rain.
This implies forecaster modification is improving the parameters with respect to snow, for reasons behind closed doors.
Not getting my hopes up though - I fear that the patchy lying snow on the grass here won't survive until daybreak.
It occurs to me now that separate discussion and reports threads might have been a better way forward with this event... too many reports raising jealousy levels across the south
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On