Is it only me that thinks it's quite sad that there hasn't been a post in here since 4.30pm this afternoon.
When the charts are showing sub -10 uppers and snow in the outlook the banter and excitement in here is brilliant - it's almost as much fun as getting snow on the ground (and more likely LOL)

Still, as the plaque down in Totland Bay, IOW states:
' . . . . Get down to the beach as soon as you can, because time and the tide wait for no man'.

What's my point - the seasons roll on and take the weather with them, and if it's the fun and games of impending freeze-ups you're after, it'll soon come round again.

Here you go Neil 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=264&mode=1&carte= 

You know how I feel about pertubations  (but I appreciate your gesture LOL)

A familiar tale of this Winter , a cool NWly flow

A deep Low and torrential rain batters the South towards the end of the month, just as well it wont happen like that

Those charts sure don't look at all mild to me.

Generally speaking, it seems that after next weekend we may well be heading into a rather more unsettled period that we have seen at any time since mid-January. If the current model runs come to pass, I wouldn't rule out some wintry precipitation in places, especially in Scotland.

There are some very mild options in the mix, David. Typical UK maritime late winter mash-up really: Some cold NW flows with graupal in Sheffield and some very mild springlike +16C in Scarborough jobbies.
Very few of the ENS mix drop below -6 uppers now so the risk of a Qauntum Blast appears to be receding.

The next day it was removed because it was deemed a little controversial and a bit critical. It was to stop any potential flare-ups.

I am with you, Neil on this.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will move slowly East across the UK today followed by a ridge of High pressure and an increasing SW flow across the North and NW tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather seems likely especially in the second week when strong winds and rain may develop for all areas at times. Near average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows an undulating flow between an East movement to the North of Scotland and a dipping South of the flow over the UK at times before the main axis of the flow shifts generally further South and strengthens close to Southern Britain from the end of the week and through next week.

http://www.netweathe...ction=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues on it's shift from yesterday to a much more unsettled and windy period of weather developing across all areas of he UK from later this week. Low pressure areas will move East to the North of Scotland with winds from between SW and NW reaching gale force at times and carrying periods of rain and relatively mild conditions alternating with colder and more showery spells when wintry showers falling over the North at times.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows very little difference in the theme of the operational model though right at the end of the run a large mid Atlantic High looks like it could bring a return to quieter and more settled benign weather again in two weeks time following a colder injection of air on a Northerly flow.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show an 85% majority of members going for a West or NW flow across the UK in 15 days time in winds from the West or NW with just 15% having High pressure closer to the South of the UK to restrict the worst of the Atlantic winds and rain to the North of the UK.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows very changeable conditions developing later this week and through the weekend with spells of rain on strong Westerly winds and troughs crossing East and each followed by sunshine and showers, wintry in the North. The pattern looks like continuing well beyond the Day 6 frame.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show todays fronts clearing the East coast by dawn tomorrow with a strong ridge developing over the South and a stronger SW flow coupled with a warm front advancing NE over the North. Later in the week cold fronts again cross the UK from the West followed by more unsettled weather by the weekend as a further Low and troughs cross East over the UK.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also shows a very changeable and later windy spell of weather setting up across the UK as the current weak and changeable pattern strengthens into something more aggressive later with gales and heavy rain at times almost anywhere with brief colder and showery interludes with some snow on Northern hills.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure falling more substantially over the UK by the end of the run as Low pressure digs down over the UK more coherently. In the meantime changeable weather with a mix of some rain from troughs and drier periods in between take us through this week with gradually increasing winds from Wednesday and temperatures ranging from just above to maybe below average later.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM  ECM is broadly similar in type to all the above in as much as it is going to become windy over the weekend and more especially next week. There will continue to be a mix of rain and showers at times as successive troughs run East over the UK in the strong flow later. The model does show High pressure not a million miles to the South though and this could limit the progression of colder polar maritime interludes and allow troughs to become strung up across the South with more sustained spells of rain.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning is more indicative of a deeper unsettled period across the UK than the operational shows even for the South in a strong Westerly flow around Low pressure close to the North and a strong Westerly flow carrying fast moving troughs West to East in the flow in temperatures close to average.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all agree on a shift towards a deeper unsettled period with strong winds and rain or showers in a pattern of Low to the North and High well to the South and SW of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.5 pts over UKMO at 88.7 pts and GFS at 86.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.1 pts over GFS's 60.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.1 pts over GFS at 42.5.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The quiet spell of weather with just the occasional trough crossing East in a weak Westerly looks like becoming much more pronounced as we move through the latter stages of this week and the remainder of the period as our seemingly permanent Winter feature of High close to SW Britain looks like giving ground and slipping South in response to a strengthening Jet flow across the UK. A period of volatile weather with heavy rain at times and strong winds look like affecting all areas as we enter the latter stages of the month with short periods of brighter and colder weather with showers, wintry in the North. In such a strong Westerly flow the North will still see the worst of the weather but unlike of late the South too could get a fair share of heavy rain and strong winds too. Overall it looks like temperatures will average out at near to average made up of some mild wet days and colder showery ones. Looking further out into the far reaches of the output and to the ensembles in general there is overwhelming support for the pattern to continue as we move towards the beginning of March with March looking more likely to come in like a lion rather than a lamb this year. However, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and then but it looks unlikely that the end of the Meteorological Winter of 2014-15 is going to end up being anything other than the mix of weather that the whole Winter has brought us here in another Winter of snow starvation in the vast percentage of low lying Britain.  

Issued at 08:30 Monday February 16th 2015

Thank  you  Martin for your output.  A  one to be noted with the expected winds..  

This Week, the weekend and the Following Week Monday Northern Jetstream Track brings Average Winter Rain and Temperatures, Scotland and NE Ireland seeing some more colder weather but the South and Central Parts British Isles mix of short high ridges and longer lasting Shortwave Troughs /Rear SW of Major Low Pressure to the end, changeable with some dry bright skies and a few moderate to heavy normal Trofs rain events, and not too cold away from North ahem.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015021612/gfs-0-372.png?12

Finally winter 2014/15  begins

A few cold incursions before this as well

Avoiding the various acronyms and jargon, the background drivers have tended to spend every other fortnight hanging around in phases supporting mid-Atlantic ridges and Scandinavian troughs, and yet again we are seeing that being called for by the models in the near future.

The problem to resolve is then how quickly and to what extent the Atlantic-Europe pattern responds to this influence. For the umpteenth time this winter, low pressure emerging off the U.S. looks well timed to interfere with the process, phasing with the major trough that attempts to set up shop to our NE or E at the end of this week. ECM briefly suggested that this might be avoided (a couple of days ago I think) but this turned out to be a flight of fancy.

Does this trough then go on to establish over Scandinavia or will another upstream development come into play? Today's model trend has been toward the former, but it's early days on it so far.

Given how this winter has behaved so far I'd be surprised if a major Scandi trough with a NW flow for the UK didn't feature at some point within the next fortnight. I am of two minds on whether I would like to see that (don't like late-winter cold but do like seeing the CET projections lowered)... but it's not as if the weather listens to me anyway 

Cold rain unless you live up a mountain or in Sheffield  

A chilly and unsettled Met/o 12z.

Maybe some snow in the north.

Thank goodness it is deep FI !! Cold rain is just the worst and we absolutely no cold pool to the East should the high migrate to Scandi.

WIO my friend.

On Saturday it was 15c on my doorstep in the full sun in Dartmouth and the calm sea in Start Bay had summer turquoise colours.  Fantastic to see after what has been an unseasonal cold 10 weeks in the South West. Unfortunately Sunday was grey and cold.

I am looking out for the springtime warmth now but this appears to be just as elusive as this winter's snow   

LOL

Sadly too little too late for the cold brigade. Let's look to Spring now- some decent temperatures may be on the cards for some this week :-)

Blink and you miss it Jacko

better than the overcast grey raw crap we've had Marcus for the past couple of weeks. And no freeze on the way either thank goodness.....

Approx. 520-524 dam air even down here on that chart. Nationwide snow:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=2

Good one 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain will persist wit a strengthening and milder SW flow developing across the NW.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely especially with strong winds and heavy rain for all areas at times. Near average temperatures but rather cold at times in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong flow later this week directed South across the UK and then setting up a position West to East across a more Southerly latitude than of late close to Southern Britain or further South still..

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows deeply unsettled weather affecting the UK from later this week as the current rather changeable pattern caused by the occasional passage of troughs gives way to windy and often rather cold conditions with showers or longer spells of rain and snow on the hills as deep Low pressure areas and troughs become much more active and pass much closer to the North of the UK with gales or severe gale West or NW winds at times, this regime continuing well into March.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows very little deviance from the theme set by the operational run with just the caveat that High pressure may be a little closer to the South at times but making very little overall difference to the weather expected in the way of rainfall and wind strengths as the pressure gradient across the UK remains large.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today still show an 85% cluster in support of a broad westerly flow blowing across the UK with wet and windy weather alternating with showers as a result. The 15% show High pressure further North into Southern Britain with the unsettled and windy weather with rain restricted to Northern areas.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows very unsettled weather developing later in the week with a very deep depression to the NW by the start of next week with severe Westerly gales, bands of heavy rain and wintry showers all featuring across the UK by then.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a couple of quieter days before a steepening of the pressure gradient is shown across the UK and a complex series of troughs and areas of rain cross England and Wales later in the week and followed by a brief cold Northerly flow on Saturday.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also shows a very mobile and aggressive Westerly flow across the UK in the coming 10 days with rain, heavy at times along with Westerly gales alternating with short periods of colder weather with wintry showers at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure falling more substantially over the UK by the end of the week onward with deep depressions and strong Westerly winds delivering spells of wet and very windy weather with severe gales with wintry showers and colder weather in between.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is broadly similar in type to all the above in as much as it is going to become windy later in the week and more especially next week. There will continue to be a mix of rain and showers at times as successive troughs run East over the UK in the strong Westerly flow later. There will be gale or severe gale winds at times and it will no doubt be cold enough at times for wintry showers to fall over the hills.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning shows the Azores High at it's home base while a Low pressure belt lies between Scandinavia and Southern Greenland with West or NW winds dominant across the UK with rain or wintry showers for all.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to all agree on a shift towards a deeper unsettled period with strong winds and rain or showers in a pattern of Low to the North and High well to the South and SW of the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.4 pts followed by UKM at 96.9 pts and GFS at 96.1. At 5 days ECM just about leads the field at 89.3 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.0 pts over GFS's 59.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.9 pts over GFS at 41.5.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS It now looks very likely that the weather is going to turn very disturbed from the end of this week. The pressure gradient is likely to steepen sharply North to South by the end of the week and weekend with strong winds from between SW and North alternating as each trough passes through. Then over next week a real powerhouse of a Westerly flow looks likely with severe gales with damaging gusts possible in places coupled with spells of heavy rain and colder weather with squally wintry showers in between. The Jet flow responsible will of moved well South than lately maintaining the presence of this weather type throughout the remainder of the period and possibly well into March. All models and ensembles largely support for this theory so we can accept that the above pattern is issued with a higher level of confidence than average. Frost and fog is likely to occur with less than average frequency given the wind strengths and snowfall although prominent under colder polar maritime interludes possible anywhere will only be a transient feature before the next system rushes in. So all in all a change from the benign conditions of late to much more fast changing and volatile weather conditions with March winds probably living up to its name as we move towards Meteorological Spring.  

Issued at 08:30 Tuesday February 17th 2015

thanks, gibby, some rough weather on the way then. like the sounds of that, long as the north don't hog it all and we see some down south  

march will sure come in as a lion,