Cheers Gav

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow will develop across the UK today followed by a cold front moving SE across all areas tonight and tomorrow

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy at first with rain at times and hill snow across the North. Becoming brighter and drier everywhere later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week before it disrupts and splits over Europe with the main flow dragged South over Europe with a weaker northern arm across Scandinavia. Later the flow becomes more diffuse and weaker as High pressure develops close to the UK and remains over Europe.

 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable period under a broad Westerly flow between Low pressure crossing East to the North of the UK and High well to the South but edging North later. The result of this will be less potent polar maritime colder air interventions with milder SW winds at times as a result with rain most likely over the North and West. Then later still High pressure deveops across the UK with fine and settled weather for all with bright sunny spells by day but some night frosts and patchy fog.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly singing from the same hymn sheet with strong Westerly and occasionally cold NW winds with rain and wintry showers steadily giving way later to anticyclonic conditions with fine and dry weather far more dominant for all areas of the UK late in the period

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning are very determined to bring High pressure close to the South or over the UK in 14 days time with fine weather for many as a result but a SW flow over the North with a little rain too. A 15% cluster though show a Scandinavian High with a strong Southerly flow over the UK.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning still shows a strong and changeable spell this morning within it's time span of 6 days with spells of rain alternating with colder and brighter periods with showers, wintry in the North.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a series of troughs crossing the UK over the next 48-96hrs. This turns the weather repeatedly milder then colder with some rain and showers at times for all right out to the start of next week.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a spell of strong and for a time cold West to North-west winds and showers, wintry on hills following the alternating mild and chilly pattern of the rest of this week and the weekend. towards the end of the run it too shows milder air returning around High pressure having built close to the South by then.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains it's theme from yesterday showing a strong Westerly flow across the UK through the next week with some milder weather at times but with colder interludes too with rain then showers turning wintry over the hills of the North at times.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the unsettled westerly period of weather coming to an end about a week from now as a large High pressure bases itself over the Uk towards the second half of next week with dry and fine weather developing for all with sunny days in average temperatures and frosty cold nights.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control across the UK and western Europe at the 0 day mark with fine and dry weather for most in light winds and temperatures held to at least reasonable levels by day.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period has increased to almost all output this morning from the 7-10 days range.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.0 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 86.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 65.7 pts over GFS's 59.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 46.4 pts over GFS at 42.5.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The biggest thing of note from today's output is the increased momentum of securing High pressure developing or moving close to or over the UK in a week or so. Before we get there it looks like the same unsettled and windy weather that we have become accustomed to of late has a little while to run yet with rain and showers for all on occasions in fluctuating temperatures from day to day. It's then left to the strong and chilly West or NW flow of early next week to be the last in the series as pressure builds from the South and SW. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of influence this takes over Northern Britain but Southern areas at least look like becoming dry and fine by soon after midweek and probably the North too soon after as High pressure looks like settling across the South or all of the UK. While day-times will be dry, bright and possibly sunny in light winds temperatures will probably be held to average levels in the strong march sunshine while the nights could be cold and frosty under clear skies. If of course the High ends up further South then northern areas could stay rather cloudy and mild in a SW Atlantic feed. There is still the hint of the UK High becoming part of the European version which will be present at the time too but the chances of anything of note on a cold Easterly feed across Southern Britain looks unlikely at this stage with any part of this being shunted down over the Southern European nations rather than the UK. So in Summary a change in the weather is on the way. After a further period of changeable weather over the next week it looks like dry and almost springlike weather may arrive later this week but although days will resemble Spring no record breaking high temperatures look likely and night's could still be jolly cold and frosty where skies stay clear.  

Issued at 09:00 Wednesday February 25th 2015

Whilst it's quiet in here (and before it goes next run) it's nice of the odd GFS ens member to give us a little bit of late season fun:-

No it won't happen, yes it's pointless picking one ens member in deepest FI but it's still pretty

That aside there is a lot of HP solutions in FI - some milder, some colder but it's a fairly strong signal for some quieter weather if nothing else. 

Nearer term it's on the chilly side of average with a few milder interludes. Should be cold enough for some wintriness at times - chiefly to the North and with elevation but wouldn't be surprised if the odd flake fell down here if the timing was right

Interesting ECM FI today too 

according to fergie over NW start and end of march looking cooler than average, mid march is average temps,  this thread is doing well

Indeed latest GFS 06z run is very interesting in FI and builds on this morning's ECM:

Almost gets there:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=234&mode=0

But destroyed by LP running in from the west:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

But pressure never really is that low to the east of Scandy and we have another go at the end of the run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Certainly no March 2013 but hints of March 2005 as others have mentioned; of course as usual all JFF as still FI but now that ECM is starting to show similar things it's gaining interest. Must be spring as here comes winter   

Or March 2006. That month saw one of the heaviest snowfalls I can remember here in the middle of the month and it didn't turn milder until the last few days.

There are some interesting runs starting to appear in the models now, more so than we've seen for much of the time during the winter.

GFS 12z is not without interest with cold air close by and in fi and southerly tracking jet/lows bringing a lot of rain to Western Europe including us.

I wouldn't take much to alter the pattern south wards further and would be the main buzz ward for later next week.

The less said about the 12z GFS the better. 

It would be good in mid-winter.

A few weeks of consistently significantly lower solar activity (correct me if I'm wrong) than we've been seeing for the past year = re-emergence of some element of northern blocking in the models.  Could this be more than just coincidence?  Frustrating that these forecasts are showing up in March, and not January.

David

Northallerton

An Easterly from the Control small support though

ECM 12z brings in cold easterlies in fi.

Some cold stuff lurking to the East

First thoughts included "oh no, not again..." when viewing the 12z GFS and ECM operational runs.

Trouble is, something as extreme as happened two years ago would be an extraordinary occurrence and remains very much an outside bet. There's a far greater risk of it being cold, but not cold enough for many of us.

I do live in fear of another March 2013, a month that had the far south endure day after day of bitterly cold winds but without significant, accumulating snowfall as a payoff. Some snow did fall, but only on a few days, and in each case solar heating in the preceding hours or days had made the ground too warm for it to settle.

Anyway, the time of year is one that favours blocking highs, due to a reduction in westerly momentum that usually takes place at some point between late February and mid-March.

For which reason I'm feeling more inclined to believe in those Scandi Highs in the 7-10 day range than I would if it was mid-December, for example.

Give me a classic Channel Low engaging with a beast from the east to produce a southern blizzard, and March 2013 will be forgiven 

The focus should be on the weekend and a series of deep depressions set to cross the UK.

If the main three are to be believed, some sharp gradients could develop Sat night and Monday delivering potential severe gales.

Possible early warning to be issued.

Tell me this isn't happening - I've just put my early beans in!

WINO

You better unpack them then Neil,

I've just made a mental note not to engage in the potential for later next week in any way whatsoever, until it is within +24hrs at the very minimum LOL.

You have a while yet Neil

Broadly speaking, it has bean an odd winter...ok, I'll get my coat and do a runner....