The easterly may or may not happen, the GFS makes it weaker and briefer.  GEM goes eventually for a flabby Sceuro - Azores hybrid.

Upon reflection, the Easterly/ NEly can stuff itself. 

It is time for benign spring sunlight and some increasing mildness and warmth.

Now watch the ECM...

Yes as usual - as it comes into the nearer time frame and it's all watered down, ECM not out yet but would not be surprised to see the same. Saying that GFS did do the same with the easterly a few runs back only to bring it back, a few more runs needed before we can be sure this easterly is dead in the water.

Ouch!  Its FI though

A potential N/NE next week still on the loose agenda

Of greater significance are the two systems due Sat and Mon. Rate of cyclogenesis and track and phasing yet to be resolved but broadly speaking it's going to be windy and wet, potentially very windy at times. 

And to think, as you can still read in many published monthly outlooks, we were supposed to have a calm and dry end to Feb 😀

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will clear SE over England later today followed by a ridge of High pressure tonight and at first tomorrow before a further trough approaches the West later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy at first with rain at times and hill snow across the North. Becoming brighter and drier everywhere later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows a strong West to East flow across the Atlantic through this week before it disrupts and splits North and South just to the east of the UK. The flow then weakens later in the run with the main thrust of the flow moving NE well to the NW of the UK later.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable week to come with spells of rain and followed by spells of colder and more showery conditions where some of these could fall wintry over the hills. Then late next week High pressure is shown to move up from the SW with fine and chilly weather with frosts at night quite widespread for the remainder of the period though cloud amounts would likely vary and the far NW could continue to see occasional rain on a SW breeze.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly similar in the short to mid term but instead of showing High pressure persisting close to the UK it is shown to migrate it North later and allows cold continental air to gradually infiltrate UK air space with he increasing risk of wintry showers towards Eastern Britain later as High pressure sets up to the West and North with cold Northerlies across the UK.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters illustrate a lot of High pressure in close proximity of the UK in two weeks time. The positioning of such a High is less clear with a slight preference to it being either across Southern Britain or just to the East of the UK holding preference. Only 5% of the group show any major Low pressure influence from the Atlantic.

http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning still shows a strong and chilly WNW flow early next week with slowly rising pressure from the SW in the final frame of the run. A rather chilly and showery period will accompany this synoptic setup.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning continue to show an unstable Westerly flow from off the Atlantic with frequent troughs crossing the UK bringing rain and showers in fluctuating temperatures for the next 4-5 days at least.

http://www.weatherch...momslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a  continuing spell of windy and changeable weather across the UK with rain and showers for all in alternating colder and milder phases of temperature. then towards the end of the run High pressure builds steadily up from the SW settling things down for most eventually with bright, sunny days in average temperatures but with cold and frosty nights.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows an unsettled period still to come in blustery West winds before drier and brighter weather will start to move North at least across Southern Britain by next weekend as High pressure edges up from the South.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM once again this morning indicates that the prolonged spell of unsettled and windy Westerly airflow of late will come to an end next week as High pressure gains control of the UK weather. Following the spell of sometimes wet and windy weather and wintry showers in the North High pressure is then shown to ridge across the UK later next week ending up close to Scandinavia and this sets up the risk of a cold Easterly feed reaching SE Britain later perhaps with wintry showers and frosts for all by night.

 http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows High pressure well in control across the UK and western Europe at the 10 day mark with fine and dry weather for most in light winds and temperatures held to at least reasonable levels by day.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period has increased to almost all output this morning from the 7-10 days range. What is also increased is the chance of High pressure near Scandinavia later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.1 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 86.7. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.1 pts over GFS's 60.1 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.1 pts over GFS at 41.1.

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep....L_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep...._MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is still a strong signal for High pressure to become much more influential across the UK from later next week but positioning and effects this has at the surface over the UK is very dependent on where this developing feature lies come the time. In the interim period there is still around a week of the current pattern to run with fast changing conditions in sometimes strong Westerly winds and fluctuating temperatures. It's then as we move beyond the middle of next week that pressure builds from the SW. Some output then shows this to lie over the South of the UK with benign and fine conditions with variable cloud cover. However, some output especially the GFS Control and ECM operational with some support from ensemble data show the High steadily migrating North and NE towards and eventually over Scandinavia throwing the door open for the first time this season on a cold Easterly flow to develop across the South. The GFS control run then takes this blocking High towards Greenland with further polar North winds invading the East later and no doubt snow showers should this verify. However, despite this wintry talk there is still a lot of output that shows High pressure based close to the British Isles but more benign weather over the UK with frosts at night but bright sunny days but as I'm sure all would agree a move out of the pattern that has been responsible for much of this season's weather will be a welcome change whatever change that might be. As for my final thoughts I think a period of typical early Spring High pressure will bring a spell of quiet and settled weather with the centre of High over the South of Britain but I am mindful of the increasing options of a Scandinavian High dragging cold East winds across the South later and I strongly believe with a much weakened Jet flow and other synoptic Northern hemispheric changes likely this is a possibility with time.  

Issued at 09:00 Thursday February 26th 2015

Thanks GIBBY as always 

Forget the Easterly for now, we have enough cold and snow to worry about in the first part of next week, particularly on Tuesday, although potentially something significant on Monday. 

Here's today's video update;

Short Cold Snap Or Prolonged Cold Spell Next Week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Quite a cold week coming up, but a 3-4 day wonder or something more significant, that's the question.

Thanks for the video Gavin.. Took my thermals off but am going to keep them handy the next week or so...

Shame its an outlier

As my mum always said, Never Shed A Clout Until May Is Out... 

I think at the very least we will see some widespread snow next week. Regarding the easterly, the support on the ensembles has actually increased, so the downgrades on the OP runs is not really that meaningful, regardless whether or not we sink or not is a question that cannot be answered now. 

March 3rd could be quite a snowy day with a bit of luck and not just for the usual suspects.

No Spring yet ?

The Atlantic seems determined not to be entirely walled off... we've hardly managed that at all these past few months.

Still a window for snow showers in a NW flow for many of us on 3rd March, which is not a particularly unusual occurrence what with the seas being at their coldest. What would be unusual would be if any accumulations managed to persist beyond the morning away from high ground.

Timing will be a crucial player as usual. In an ideal world, the more persistent frontal feature would move through at around 7 am, giving the coldest starting point and maximising the potential to block out solar input and keep those temperatures down. Obviously this ideal scenario can't be served up to everyone in any case... but say it crossed the UK between roughly 4am and 8am, that'd be good going.

In a world dominated by sod's law (probably the real world, then...) we would see the frontal feature pass mid-afternoon. In that scenario a rain to snow transition would be the best many of us could hope for, with accumulations depending on whether the ground is cold enough following what could be a sub-zero night with any luck.

Usually, a wintry mix is the end result down in these parts, with no real accumulations to speak of, so that's where I'm going to set the upper limit of my hopes at.

A nice post SC.

However..If this is what its come to now I think I will pass thanks . 

it certaintly is a very cold westerly, probably just as cold as any half decent northerly at this time of year, although that still means 5-6C in the south and 2-4C in the north, I think we will see snow showers rather than wintry showers though with temps temporarily dropping close to freezing and dew points being in the range of 0 to -4C. 

LOL

Spring will arrive Marcus.

but when will winter- perhaps 2015-16 ?

As has been the case all winter looking like next week's brief cold snap has been watered down and the easterly disappearing quicker than any snow cover this winter 

Speaking of spring, if it's not a cloudy high could be quite pleasant next weekend according to GEM:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0&carte=0

GFS not quite so nice but still a lot milder than it was showing a couple of runs ago:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0

ECM dumped the Easterly too and quite nice as well:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0

Would not be surprised to see Easter snow this year though, be about right!  Gavin P, are you starting an Events Easter look ahead soon? I think it's roughly late November you start the Christmas one, Easter arguably is not as big as Christmas but you are guaranteed four days off so important to a lot of people and it can be Winter or almost Summer as per a few years ago.

JFF here's the CFS run for good Friday now - looking unsettled and cool but not cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=882&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

Yes some inevitability about the dissolution of the phantom easterly, but the good news is my beans are safe and sound

An easterly in March that delivers is as rare s an easterly that does the same in any month, so the thought of a cold, drizzly, gloomy three days didn't inspire me too much. It may re-appear of course as has happened, but it seems the signal that GFS and ECM got wind of earlier this week was another ruse in a season of ruses.

The first half of next week looks wintry, it looks like what happened in the first week of March 1995.

FAX charts for that period are going to the ones to look at.

This is the latest 84hr FAX chart
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax84s.gif


Troughs embedded in the flow are the ones to watch.

We are also at the time of year where solar heating comes into play so I would expect some heavy and possibly wintry showers across the south at times next week. Frost at night