20c forecast for end of the working week in SE according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead forecast.

Excellent, with decent cloud breaks we should get 17C up here by then. Sun getting strong too.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A large High pressure area will remain centred across the UK through the next 48 hours.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the West next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South across the UK next weekend and early next week before breaking up late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK to start this week with fine and dry weather. Later in the week it is shown to decline away SE allowing a trough to cross East on Friday giving some rain for all. Pressure then rebuilds close to the South with fine weather here while the North stays more changeable with rain at times. Then late in the run High pressure spreads it's influence back across all areas with fine and dry weather for all as now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational again this morning in the first week or so but it is much less decisive about the late in the run High pressure with Low pressure spoiling the party for many still with further rain at times and temperatures yo-yoing day to day.

THE GFS CLUSTERS  The GFS clusters today continue too wrestle with High pressure type synoptics with the dominating cluster this morning indicating NW winds around High pressure to the West and SW. Rain is possible but more likely over the North than the South. The minority clustering shows High pressure ranging from being over or just to the North of the UK. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows a Hiatus in the High pressure pattern at the end of this week as a trough crosses East over all areas with some rain before pressure rebuilds across the South of the UK at the weekend with more fine and sunny weather though cloudier skies are more likely under a fresher West or SW wind in the North

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure slipping away from the UK later in the week setting up a Southerly flow. The 84hr chart of this morning looks very different to the comparative 96hr chart released last night as the former shows a more active pressure pattern over the Eastern Atlantic sending a trough East over the UK later not shown on the 96hr and 120hr charts.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today goes all out in taking the UK back into wet and windy weather next week as the High pressure area currently sitting across the UK moves away SE with steadily falling pressure with troughs and Low pressure over the UK by next week with wet and windy conditions for most

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too begins to wind the Atlantic up a few gears towards the end of it's run too though High pressure just about holds on for the South and East in the covering period with rain arriving across the North and West then with a freshening SW wind..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM also shows more unsettled conditions developing next week as High pressure to the SE loses it's grip. A South or SW breeze will be the precursor to this with pleasantly warm weather before troughs spread East occasionally over next weekend and more coherently next week with by then strong winds and rain at times for all in average temperatures..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is continuing to show a decline in High pressure with a SW flow likely over the UK in 10 days or so with rain at times for all but more especially across the North and West. In a SW breeze though temperatures should be average if not slightly above in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to strengthen their trend towards the likelihood of more unsettled weather arriving from the Atlantic next week as High pressure declines away SE. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.3 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.3 pts over UKMO at 90.2 pts and GFS at 86.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.9 pts over GFS's 62.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.4 pts over GFS at 45.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS With cloud amounts having broken up across the UK more readily than was hoped over the last 24 hours there is every chance of some very pleasant temperatures at times this week with some lengthy spells of sunshine as High pressure holds firm across the UK. There will be some areas still at risk from low cloud and grey skies at times and these may float around to various places through the week making day to day predictions hard to quantify. A Southerly flow looks like developing later in the week as the High slips away to the SE with even warmer air for some before cloud increases from the West and a trough crossing East through Friday brings a spell of rain and in the West wind for a time. Thereafter there is a split concensus between High pressure building back across the UK for next week but a growing trend for a more mobile Atlantic regime to develop under stronger SW winds and rain in places from quite early next week. It's too early to call which of these scenarios is more likely to be true as the Jet flow pattern looks responsible once more moving back South across the UK somewhat next week. However, in the meantime let's enjoy our first real taste of Spring with temperatures for many the warmest since the warm few days of Halloween last year but gardeners and growers beware night's are still sufficiently long through this week to permit frost in places especially low lying areas though this then looks much more unlikely next week as the wind and cloud amounts will testify too.   

Issued at 08:00 Monday April 6th 2015

GFS (left) wants to trash the party this coming weekend as a small low zips across Scotland bringing some cloud and a spell of rain for all parts, this least notable in the SE.

Thankfully, ECM (right) keeps that feature out west of the UK with only a glancing blow for the far NW. It's a similar story from GEM. UKMO doesn't have the feature at all! So GFS seems to be by far the worst case scenario, with little support from the other models.

Here's hoping we can manage to hold on to fine conditions so that it's not just those on spring break who get to make the most of more than two fine days 

ECM this morning all the way out to 240 hours holds HP close to the UK but with a breakdown looking imminent just after then:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

GFS is in agreement though at the very FI far reaches, we have something which could turn it a bit chilly:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=372&mode=0

GEM seems to want to do this much earlier:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=0

Interestingly this mid month change is in line with the JMA and CFS charts that Gavin P did last Friday - but for the foreseeable near future it looks settled and warm in any sunshine. Whether the mid month change occurs to cooler less settled conditions or we hang onto High pressure remains to be seen.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 7TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to be centred across the UK with light winds for all both today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming settled and dry with some sunshine and average temperatures but with a risk of occasional night frosts. Perhaps becoming more unsettled from the West next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South towards the UK next weekend and early next week before breaking up for a time later in the period and realigning across Southern Britain at the end of the run.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK moving slowly East and SE across Europe in the coming days with a light Southerly flow developing. A cold front moves East over the weekend with a little rain for all and an introduction to cooler conditions and a North/South split in conditions thereafter. The North will see SW winds and rain at times while High pressure maintained to the South and SE of Britain will return fine and dry conditions here before a general shift to unsettled, colder and windier weather for all in association with more vigorous Low pressure arrives at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar to the operational in sequence this morning with a brief spell of rain at the weekend freshening things up for many but maintaining a lot of fine weather to the South thereafter as High pressure rebuilds. Then late in the run as the operational the Control Run shows a dip back a month or so as cold and unsettled weather arrives from the North with rain or wintry showers at times.
 
THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters still have the jury out on the conditions likely across the UK in two weeks time. The Clusters show a variety of options none with overall dominance but mostly surrounding the position of High pressure in relation to the UK and the conditions that will likely bring. There is a split between High to the West and SW with cold Northerlies or rather chilly NW'lies or a gentler Westerly or Southerly with High pressure to the East. The biggest split though favours a NW flow with high pressure to the SW. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure over the UK currently receding away to the East and SE later in the week. A cold front is then shown to cross West to East across the UK at the weekend followed by a recovery of High pressure over the South next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts look very similar to the raw data with High pressure moving slowly East with a light Southerly then stronger SW flow developing at the end of the week. A cold front bringing rain crosses East at the weekend followed by a build of High pressure from the SW again by 120hrs.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure slowly receding away East through the week with a slow change to more unsettled weather introduced by a cold front crossing East across the Uk early in the weekend. The rise in pressure thereafter from this run is less pronounced maintaining a breezy West flow across the UK for all parts next week with some rain at times before a hint of a cold Northerly with showers moving South os shown at the end frame of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a cold front crossing East at the weekend with a little rain for all briefly. Pressure then recovers for a time across the South with fine weather here though Northern Britain looks less likely to share in much of this before a stronger Westerly flow for all by the end of the run looks like bringing more in the way of cloud and at least a little rain for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM also shows High pressure declining away East later this week before a cold front crosses East across the UK bringing a little rain for a time on Saturday. Thereafter the pattern looks like being breezy for a time under a Westerly especially in the North before conditions become complex but benign with High pressure never far away to the South or East and the UK lying in nomansland synoptically probably delivering several days of quiet if rather cloudy weather with just a little rain most likely across the West and North in the last few days of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a Westerly flow across the UK with some evidence of likely troughing somewhere around the UK with some rain possible at times in temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to strengthen their trend towards the likelihood of more unsettled weather arriving from the Atlantic next week as High pressure declines away SE though this may be restricted towards the North. 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.7 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.5. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 91.1 pts over UKMO at 89.9 pts and GFS at 87.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.7 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 48.1 pts over GFS at 44.3.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Changes are slow across the UK over the coming few weeks with the main theme of High pressure continuing to hold sway for much of the time at least where Southern Britain is concerned. This week shows High pressure continuing to bring some fine, warm Spring weather for all before all models support a cold front from the West preceded by a warm Southerly flow bringing a change to cooler weather with some rain on Saturday. Thereafter it looks like Southern areas will return to High pressure based conditions, fresher feeling but dry with average temperatures. Further North it looks likely that rather more unsettled conditions will prevail with some rain at times and later still there is a theme between GFS and GEM that a surge of cold air from the North could arrive in the second week with all the computations that may bring in the form of wintry showers and unwelcome frosts by night. However, this has by no means cross model support at this stage but will need to be watched in subsequent runs. Until then though we have a fair amount of Spring warmth and settled weather to come this week and next week too looks quite reasonable at times at least across the South.   

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday April 7th 2015

Thanks Martin. 

Here's today's video update;

Weather Set Fair To Mid-Month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Bit of an interruption on Saturday though. 

The GFS 06z operational shows what happens if the jet to the east of the Azores lacks the punch needed to drive the low pressure NE from there... it just hangs around near those islands, at times even retrogressing west a bit.

The result is a sequence of charts capable of delivering one of the warmest Aprils on record.

Something to keep an eye on in the longer range.

Nearer term, after a fresh looking day on Saturday with rain across the north but nothing much down south, there's a potential spoiler low for a swathe of the UK on Sunday that needs watching.

This tracked across England on the 00z GFS and ECM op runs, resulting in a cool, wet day (maybe just morning in the case of ECM), but it's kept well west of the UK on the GFS 06z op run, allowing a fine day for most of us.

Aside from that, the output is strongly in favour of a lot of fine, warm conditions, at least relative to average (i.e. 15 to 18*C) and perhaps in absolute terms on some days (19 to 23*C in my books).

We - and most of central/western Europe - seem to be on the warm side of the high pressure with southerlies for the coming week, so spare a thought for Greece and Turkey who are on the other side and getting northerlies, unseasonably cold for this time of year.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

See the chart at the bottom for the anomalies

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 8TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to be centred across the UK drifting slowly East with light winds for all both today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more changeable over the North with rain at times next week while the South and East stays largely dry and bright and possibly quite warm at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow well to the Northwest  of the UK tracking NE between Scotland and Iceland. It sinks slowly South travelling NE across England at Wales at the weekend before drifting back slowly North early next week. Towards the end of the run this pattern becomes much more complex and eventually disjointed as pressure rises to the north of the UK too.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure over the UK moving slowly East and SE across Europe in the coming days with a light Southerly flow developing. A cold front moves East over the weekend with a little rain for all and an introduction to cooler conditions and a North/South split in conditions thereafter. The North will see SW winds and rain at times while High pressure maintained to the South and SE of Britain will return fine and dry conditions here before High pressure builds to the North and eventually NE of the UK later with Low pressure to the South sucking a cold and raw Easterly flow with some rain or wintry showers across the South of the UK in this run for two weeks from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very different in Week 2 although the sequence of events in Week 1 is very smilar to the operational. the differences lie in High pressure not showing such a build of pressure to the North of the UK and maintaining the heights to the SE of the UK. This has a very different complexion on the weather than that shown by the operational run with the South and East often fairly warm and dry with some sunshine and just occasional rain while the North and West maintain more cloud and more frequent outbreaks of rain or showers in average temperatures.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show variations on a theme of High pressure across the Atlantic with a NW flow down across the UK looking quite likely in two weeks time. The clusters disagree on the proximity of the High to the West with a bias towards it being far enough to the West to allow some unsettled and chilly NW winds being very possible with some rain or showers across the UK. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows a Westerly flow with a few fronts crossing East early in the weekend followed by a rise of pressure across the South returning fine and dry weather here though cooler than currently. In the North the weather becomes breezy with some rain next week under a stronger Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts put the meat on the bones of how the incoming troughs from the West early in the weekend and again early next week displace the current fine and warm Spring weather with something cooler and more seasonal with some wind and rain at times across the North and West early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure slowly receding away East and South through the weekend and start to next week with colder and more changeable conditions likely to affect the North through next week and eventually to the far South too late in the run as a small but significant Low hugs the SE coast at 10 days on this run with resultant chilly and unsettled conditions likely in a cold NE flow ahead of High pressure slipping East into the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more unsettled and windier pattern next week as the weekends trough and subsequent ridge open the door to stronger Westerly winds across all areas next week with rain at times for all from Eastward moving troughs, the rain always heaviest and most persistent across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is much kinder synoptically next week with High pressure remaining well in control over or just to the East and SE of the UK next week. This would result in the weekends rain on the cold front being very brief before fine weather returns for many. Next week would then likely bring fine and rather warm conditions across the South with any rainfall restricted to the far NW with a slack pressure gradient likely at the end of the run still keeping the UK in a rather warm SW drift across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart on the face of it shows a slack Westerly flow across the UK but this is made up of various options ranging from High pressure close to the South and resultant fine weather to something rather more changeable under Low pressure to the North where rain at times is most likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends shown within the models this morning is quite weak with a mixture of fine and dry options under High pressure to the South mixed with several evolutions of cooler and unsettled weather with a few cold scenarios too from GFS and GEM.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.9 pts over UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 87.6. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.5 pts over GFS's 62.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.5 pts over GFS at 43.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The current fine weather with high temperatures will come to an end at the start of the weekend as all models indicate a cold front pushing East across the UK bringing a little rain but a more significant drop in temperatures by some 5-7deg C. The weekend will be fine for the South once the rain clears whereas the North may stay somewhat more changeable from that point on and it's at that relatively early point in the output that differences between the outputs become apparent. There are a variety of options on the table for next week and beyond ranging from a strong Westerly with rain at times for all and fine weather under High pressure bringing a return to the conditions we have currently at least for Southern Britain later next week with even a few wintry scenarios spelled out, notably from the GFS operational in two weeks time and less dramatically by GEM in 10 days. Which scenario is correct is hard to call at the moment but my own feelings are that something along the lines of ECM or the GFS Control run may well be closer to the mark which will maintain a lot of dry and fine weather towards the South and East of the UK with some quite warm conditions at times whereas the North will see troughs flirting by at times delivering some rain at times in a stronger breeze. So all things considered I think that despite a few unsettled and unsavoury model runs this morning we will probably end up with quite respectable conditions in the South for a few weeks with some light rain on occasion and temperatures on the high side of average whereas the North finds fine and dry conditions much shorter lived and less reliable with temperatures more suppressed here to average.   

Issued at 08:00 Wednesday April 8th 2015

Spotted some unusually strong disagreement at just four days range between the 12z op runs of GFS and ECM.

It appears that while GFS sends a weak disturbance on a run through the central swathe of the UK, ECM is having none of it.

Not only does this affect how wet (or not) Sunday is, but it also has serious impacts on the ability of high pressure to stay in control next week, with GFS shoving it down toward central Europe by next Wednesday while ECM keeps it firmly across us. Both bring another southerly flow, but GFS' version is short lived and quickly breaks down. I prefer ECM's more sustained option, which goes on to fend off an intrusion from the southwest and line things up for a reload from the south:

With this in mind, it's good to see UKMO producing a day 5 chart almost identical to ECM this evening, despite it's day 4 chart being halfway between ECM and GFS with a slight kink in the isobars suggesting that the weak disturbance could still be present even with pressure at 1025 mb.

As an estimate, UKMO probably takes precipitation just a little north of where GFS takes it - so perhaps more than just southernmost counties escaping dry. ECM doesn't show much evidence of the feature on the synoptic or 500mb charts, but if it is there, the rain is most likely somewhere in the vicinity of Northern England.

The latest runs have delayed the feature a bit, which is good because until now it was looking to make a mess of Sunday daytime... now the odds are increasing on it arriving in the evening or later. Could be some useful stuff for the gardens without intruding too much on outdoor activities - unless you're very ambitious with the BBQ! 

At least have no effect on this Sunday as it still under strong 1025MB at 6am when boot sales are open so what happen later it likely just a passing clouds and mostly dry here.  Overall it better to rain at some point this month either at nights or during the week days and not a repeat of April 2007 which was the only summery month we had with no rain and constant warm weather.  I would worry if this month do the same thing.  

Time for a new thread, the first one for more than 2 months!

Closing shortly.