8.3C for me please.

Last month it was not enough days in Februaury, now it's BST's fault.

8.85C

9.3

8.75 please.

Thank you

David

Northallerton

8.4 please

7.7 please.

Met Office   Hadley       6.2c.      Anomaly      -0.7c.   Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                        6.27c.    Anomaly       -1.74c.

N-W                               7.06c.    Anomaly       -1.04c.

Mount Sorrel                   5.9c.

My  Mean                        7.2c.     Anomaly       -1.6c.

After a slightly cool start to the month the next two weeks look like being very warm. Current estimate is for the CET to be above 9C by mid month.

Met Office Hadley      6.8c.   Anomaly       0.1c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                  6.89c. Anomaly      -1.12c.

N-W                         7.48c. Anomaly      -0.63c.

Mount Sorrel             7.3c.

My Mean                  7.8c.   Anomaly       -1.0c.

Met Office Hadley        7.5c.      Anomaly       1.0c.    Provisional to  3rd.

Metcheck                    7.21c      Anomaly       -0.81c.

N-W                           8.0c.       Anomaly      -0.1c.

Mount  Sorrel              7.6c.       Anomaly      -0.5c.

My   Mean                   8.4c.       Anomaly      -0.4c.

My   Annual                6.3c.      Anomaly      0.3c.

Here is the table of predictions for April

Not many of us predicting a warm month. 

Better Chances after the 13th If Met Monthly outlook is any thing to go by...

Met Office Hadley         7.8c.     Anomaly      1.5c.  provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                     7.34c.   Anomaly     -0.68c.

N-W                             8.12c.   Anomaly      0.3c.

Mount     Sorrel              7.8c.     Anomaly      0.3c.

My    Mean                    8.3c.     Anomaly     -0.5c.

The way things are going we could well be looking at another April CET in double figures. Certainly the next 10-12 days looks potentially very warm indeed. The figures below could be an understatement if we get plenty of sunshine.

We have seen a very significant number of very warm April's in recent years. In 10 of the last 13 years the CET in April has been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. The April CET for the last 20 years is 0.9C higher than the mean for 1971-2000. The CET has exceeded 10C in 3 of the last 8 years. 2012 and 2013 did buck the trend. Both were very cold with the CET well below 8C. Despite these two years the April CET for the last 13 years has averaged at 9.3C.

The only other month to have seen a similar trend is September but the figures for September have tailed off somewhat in recent years. After a couple of cool April's we seem to have resumed a trend of significant warming.

Previous years in recent times with very warm Aprils have gone on to see a warm May as well and often a reasonable June. But the second half of summer has usually been disappointing with poor July's and August's. Last year was a bit of an exception as July was decent but August was poor. We have had some decent August's following a fairly warm April in the past. 2002-2004 saw three in a row. However, August generally has failed to deliver for some considerable time. August has failed to reach 17C since 2004.

Here is the latest table showing the CET since 1950. All months or years in orange are a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. Similarly those in blue are more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean.

Between 1950 and 1988 there was only one year where the overall mean temperature was more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. Since 1989 there have been 15 such years.

Similarly between 1950 and 1988 there were 10 years with a CET mean more than 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean. Since 1989 there has been only one.

From 1950-1988 the mean CET was 9.43C. From 1989-2014 the mean CET was 10.18C, a rise of 0.75C.

After a very warm 2014 we have now had four months in a row with temperatures close to the mean. I think is now looking very likely the orange colour will return this month.

Warm CET Chart noted for future use...

Thanks for the stats GW!  The way it's looking at the moment, we could have all gone too low! 

It looked a little that way early last month but it evened out throughout March, although I don't think the models were in such agreement about the outlook as they are now.  I just hope temperatures don't peak too soon and fizzle out in the summer.

Here's hoping July will be Dry. ....

Comparing an average of the last four 00z and 12z GFS op runs in March against the latest figures and projections:

1st-4th, late March GFS mean is 6.2*C, actual 7.8*C. Ouch.  To be fair, the final 12z had 7.56*C so the model did catch on eventually.

1st-10th, late March GFS mean is 7.7*C, today's 00z projects 8.9*C. So the output has shifted considerably warmer!

1st-15th, late March GFS mean is 7.8*C, today's 00z projects 9.4*C. An even bigger shift warmer!

Overall, then, looking like another poor show from the models IF the latest GFS op run is close to what we actually experience.

This caveat holds great significance when considering the ECM 00z op run, which days 8-10 shifts the position of the mean trough to sit north of the UK rather than northwest, setting up a much cooler run of days.

Overall though, the signs have more than a whiff of April 2003 about them... though far from identical. Also worth noting how far downhill that month went later on:

There have been hints of this in a number of recent GFS runs for the 10-16 day period, so we may see a dramatic turnaround later this month. Even if that does occur, there's no knowing how much the CET will be affected; the cooler air was mostly to the NW during the unsettled spell in 2003, with the CET finishing at a little over 9.5*C.

The 9.5c will be ok for my prediction.. If it stays that way.... 

Late today been dawdling in the sunshine....

Met Office Hadley     8.1c.    Anomaly   1.7c.  Provisional   to 5th.

Metcheck                 7.54c.  Anomaly   -0.48c.

N-W                        8.35c.   Anomaly   0.26c.

Mount Sorrel            8.0c..   Anomaly   -0.1c.

My  Mean                8.6c.    Anomaly    -0.2c.     

Great stuff as ever GW. April looking warm at the moment 

Met Office Hadley     8.3c.     Anomaly      1.9c.  Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                 7.61c.   Anomaly     -0.41c.

N-W                         8.5c.     Anomaly       0.41c.

Mount    Sorrel         7.9c.     Anomaly     -0.2c.

My   Mean                9.2c.     Anomaly      0.5c