I'd throw 1984 into that category as well. I remember reading on the internet some years ago that that April was the driest month of the 1980's in many parts of the UK and we had a particularly warm Easter, which I think that year came later in April.

in other words there is no relationship between April and summer weather, one way or the other.  1995 and 96 both had dry pleasant Aprils. I say just enjoy it.

Sorry to go a bit OT. Thought this link is worth a look.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11530817/Spring-sizzle-as-Britain-to-enjoy-three-months-of-warm-weather.html

I remember April 1995 as being a fairly mixed month, with some lovely warm & bright days and others than were very much cooler and more unsettled. The Easter weekend that year started on the warm side but it turned very much colder early the following week with some wintry showers in places. The back end of that month was pretty good though.

April 1996 was mostly dry but I recall it as being a very chilly month, and dominated by easterly winds throughout. May wasn't any warmer, in fact I remember hearing at the time that it was the coldest May in this country for about 70 years. The summer wasn't too bad though, although not in the same class as 1995.

I gave up linking April weather with the following summer after 2012. Remembering the awful spring of 1983 being followed by a fine and dry summer in southern UK, I was hopeful of a similar turnabout in 2012, only to witness the wettest June I can ever recall. I think that there are great examples of Aprils of all descriptions preceding great summers and sadly not so great ones. Pattern matching has been dealt too many harsh lessons in the past few years.

How about this then - Wednesday's pattern of low pressure north of the Azores and to some extent to the SW of the UK combined with a ridge over Europe manages to repeat to large extent 6 days later.

That Greenland High then works with a Scandi trough to bring a colder spell, but the Azores low persists and after a few days drifts far east enough to bring about the third manifestation of Wednesday's pattern in the space of 11 days... though this one is a lot more extreme:

For the past month or so I've been banging on about an unusually strong gradient in SSTs near the Azores having the potential to encourage low pressure to hang about in that area and at the moment the phrase 'lo and behold' comes to mind... but of course most of this is far from set in stone and even if it was, who's to say the pattern won't undergo major changes by the time we reach the summer? What we're seeing at the moment could just be a coincidence.

IF by some chance it does keep on repeating through to the end of this month and beyond, then as the last of the above charts shows, we may find ourselves living dangerously - it really is the ultimate pattern for periodically developing exceptional heat plumes across western Europe and, potentially, the UK. When those destabilise... kaboom  (choose your emoticon!).

ECM promotes a calmer, more restrained outlook, as low pressure is still west of the Azores on day 10, with high pressure only just starting to venture back toward Europe.

It also leads me nicely on to explain that the unusually large SST gradient does extend some way west of the Azores, so my theoretical 'spring-summer SST-driven pattern' isn't all plumes and storms - there's room for periods with high pressure located west of the UK and drifting only slowly east.

What I would give to see this DIY theory of mine at least appear to bear fruit in the real world 

Possible repeat of 2005 in the making?

I remember that year having a warm April, and it was a very thundery year. The storms being a regular thing from late April through to September, it was rinse & repeat with plumes every 10-14 days, and all where potent french imports. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY APRIL 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm front will move NE across the UK today followed by a warm and moist SW flow with a trough remaining close to NW Scotland tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the flow blowing NE across Northern Britain with it's axis shifting further to the NW of the UK later in the week as pressure builds across the UK. Things become more uncertain in Week 2 with the orientation of the flow changing to South to north across Britain later in Week 2..

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows warm conditions in a SW flow with High pressure to the SE for the first half of this week. Later in the week a new High from the Atlantic will cool things down for a time but maintain largely dry weather with plenty of sunshine. The High is then shown to settle across the UK for some considerable time delivering fine and steadily warmer conditions again before a slow decline of the High to the SE later could return the risk of rain from the NW albeit briefly as pressure is shown to rebuild yet again from the West by Day 14.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in it's first 7-9 days with warm High pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with just a brief cooler blip with a few showers towards the middle of next week before warm air surges back North by the end of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters show a bias towards winds likely to be blowing from a point between West and North in two weeks time. Quite a high percentage of the pack indicate High pressure quite close to the SW ensuring some dry and fine weather but any flow from the North could lead to lower temperatures and the risk of frost by night.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure to the SE with a warm SW flow until Thursday when a new cooler High pressure moves in from off the Atlantic, settling across the UK and allowing daytine temperatures to recover well again, back to above average levels by day but maybe some chilly and misty nights inland next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts on the face of it are not that inspiring as a lot of weak troughs splice High pressure but they are very weak with a lot of chances for warm sunshine to break through their cloud cover before a cooler High pressure still with some cloud over the South takes control.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure in control for much of the period, firstly to the SE and then a new High building across the UK at the end of the week. warm weather will turn cooler alter in the week as the new High forms. Later in the run the High quickly collapses and Low pressure to the NW deepens and takes control of things with rain and stronger winds for all by the end of the 10 day period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar track to the other models but holds the new formed High late in the week further to the West which could allow a lot more cloud into the mix for many and this accompanied by a chill wind from a North or NW direction.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is showing a pattern which has been shown by it's 10 day mean chart for days now with High pressure dominant through the period eventually centred to the West of the UK. The warmth of early in this comng week and perhaps again briefly at the weekend will be less pronounced with time as a chilly North drift especially near the North Sea Coast could ensure chilly conditions here and temperatures closer to average elsewhere with rather a lot of cloud flowing South down over the UK at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to the SW and a slack NW flow down across the UK returning temperatures to close to average with variable cloud cover, a lot of dry weather and just a little rain principally over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning have reduced the risk of a cold Northerly in Week 2 as High pressure looks like holding sway near the UK.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.1 pts over GFS's 60.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.0 pts over GFS at 41.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output reflects a lot of dry weather to come across the British Isles over the next few weeks. If you live in the far NW you may think this is nonsense as rain will be heavy and prolonged here until Wednesday but elsewhere High pressure at first to the SE and later over the UK will ensure fine weather for all. Temperatures will be up and down a bit with this early week's warmth cooling off quite quickly by Thursday and Friday from the North as the new High forms from the West. Next weekend could see daytine temperatures above average again for a time and before we move through week 2 with conditions then totally dependant on where that High relocates. There is still some disagreement on this with GFS Cluster data eventually pushing it likely to a point to the SW of the UK while others like ECM hold it to the West and others to the South and SE with rain bearing fronts bearing down on the UK from the NW as per GEM. Which is right or whether a different evolution to any of those shown in this morning's output have sanctioned is anyone's guess currently but it looks like the most likely result is that dry conditions look like continuing on for some considerable time for the rest of April which if turns out to be true will make it a very dry April indeed for many. If I was to be picky it looks unlikely that sustained high temperatures are likely with this week's summer warmth at times probably falling back towards something more average for the time of year more likely next week..

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday April 14th 2015

Temperatures look like returning to average after this early warm spell this week

Towards the end of the month looks more generally unsettled which seems quite likely given the dry , warm start to April (apart from the far north)

Yep big contrast in temps from north to south, pay back for when the north hog's all the cold/snow in winter 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015041312/nmmuk-0-51-0.png?13-19

Ah yes snow, we got some of that 2 years ago. 

Sorry was a typo  

The north should of been Sheffield 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY APRIL 14TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A warm and moist SW or West flow covers much of the UK today with a weakening cold front moving South over Scotland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast shows the main flow currently running East over the far North weakening over the coming days and then steered well away to the North of the UK for much of the remainder of the run driven by High pressure centred near the UK through much of the run period today this morning.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows plenty of High pressure across or around the UK over the coming two weeks. The position varies from day to day with a bias of it being just to the North and NE of the UK with a cool East wind at times in the South but with very little rainfall anywhere and some warm days at times chiefly but not exclusively in the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in Week 1 with plenty of High pressure driven fine and sunny weather  with moderate warmth in the sunshine but chilly nights. In the second week this run shows more ingress of low pressure from the West eroding the fine weather and introducing some rain and showers at times to many areas and near average temperatures.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters continue to show mixed messages in two weeks time with a mix of High pressure to the South and SW with varying degrees in the extent of influence of Atlantic Low pressure to the North or NW while a 20% or so mix indicating a much more High pressure based pattern across the UK by then.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure developing and intensifying across the UK towards and over the weekend with fine and sunny conditions for many under light winds, chilly nights and though days not as warm as currently in the South they will remain very respectable in the sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the increasingly High pressure area across the UK late in the week and weekend with a weak front on it's Southern flank gradually dissolving away South taking it's warm and humid air with it and replacing it with fine and sunny weather if less warm by the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows a build of High pressure but this model places it further to the north with a cool East wind across much of the UK with dry and fine weather and the best of the sunshine in the West. The run also still likes the idea of attempting to introduce colder and more unsettled conditions from the North later as pressure falls across and to the west of the UK in cold air aloft.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure once formed across the UK in a few days time maintained through to the end of the run with fine and settled weather for all with some warm sushine by day but with chilly Spring nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is showing High pressure too with the centre well defined at the weekend gradually become less so next week in as much as by the end of next week pressure is slack and lower than earlier in the week introducing the risk of some cool and more unsettled conditions with the risk of showers increasing almost anywhere

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z)  The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows High pressure ensconced near or over the UK with largely fine and settled conditions most likely with any rain bearing Atlantic based weather systems weak and steered well away from the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.7 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.1 pts over GFS's 61.0 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.4 pts over GFS at 42.4.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the driving force of the model output from both sides of the Atlantic today with all output showing strong support for a UK based High pressure area developing late this week and lasting some considerable time before some longer term output explores the possibility of a decline in conditions in week 2 but none of that shown indicating any major shift away from settled weather. The current fine and very warm conditions across Southern England will be replaced by a new High on Thursday and Friday with cooler and for a time cloudier conditions perhaps with the odd shower as an old front clears South. Then through the weekend and much of next week there will be plenty of sunny days with light winds and temperatures near or somewhat above average by day but cool near East facing coasts and universally cool by night with some unwanted grass frosts at times. All areas look like staying dry with even the far NW largely fine. As I indicated earlier as we move through Week 2 the extended outputs do suggest some moderation in High pressure as Low pressure in one shape or shallow form offers the risk of cool and showery conditions becoming a possibility late in the second week but at such a range not much credence can be put on this yet. So lets all enjoy what looks likely to be a sustained fine period and though not always overly warm especially by night at least the bright Spring sunshine will be welcomed for many though I have heard locally that some Farmers and Growers could do with a drop of rain for the Spring crops down here in the south and SW.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday April 15th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Questions To Answer For End Of April;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Last week of month still uncertain. Very warm tomorrow too.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY APRIL 15TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move South across England and Wales today and tonight with pressure High to the South declining slowly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity is likely as the flow over Northern Scotland realigns well North and South of the UK from the weekend and next week strengthening slowly and relocating close to the UK by the end of the period as pressure falls.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late there will be some pleasant High pressure at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure recedes away SE and a cold NW flow with rain or showers looks likely towards the end of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in theme this morning with the best weather in Week 1 as pressure stays High across the Uk with fine and dry conditions though often with a chilly East wind across the South. This run too illustrates much more unsettled weather in Week 2 as Low pressure pulls down from the North with windy and sometimes wet weather alternating with chilly and showery conditions as well.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today as the majority of members show High pressure to the South or SW with some or quite a bit of influence shown by Atlantic fronts and depressions either to the North and NE of the UK..

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK at the weekend and early next week but with a central position over the North or just West of Scotland and Ireland later a chilly East feed looks like affecting the South at times where it may also become rather cloudy and cooler especially near East facing coasts with the best conditions to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the weak front currently moving South across Britain dissipating across Southern England in the coming days to leave High pressure well established across Northern Britain with dry and fine weather for all but with an increasing and cool East wind developing across the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather colder and more showery weather feeds down across the UK from the North late in the period as pressure falls.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure well in control over the next 168hrs or so with the centre up to the Northwest of the UK or over the North for much of the time maintaining fine and dry weather though with chillier conditions for the SE for much of the time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is a little different in that while High pressure remains dominant to the North of the UK for the next week with fine weather and the same chilly East flow across the South at times a shift towards more Atlantic based Westerly weather type looks likely as we move into the second week especially in the NW as High pressure returns to a point SE of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK with some shallow Low features possibly giving rise to a few showers across the South and the threat of colder North winds shown to the area of the norwegian Sea which could become signifiacant with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards colder conditions from the north or NW is hinted at later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.1 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.4 pts over UKMO at 88.9 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.4 pts over GFS's 61.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 42.9.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main focus on the outputs this morning remain the longevity and extent of High pressure near or close to the UK largely maintaining the fine and bright weather for some considerable time. However, having said that the positioning of the High is such that wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures such as those the South have enjoyed of late look more unlikely to be maintained after today as an Easterly or NE flow is likely to develop across Southern Britain from tomorrow dragging cooler air and more cloud in off the North Sea and while I hope the North Sea doesn't become infilled with extensive low cloud and mist it there is a distinct possibility that it will and if it does the South could see some chilly and cloudy conditions rather than the bright and sunnier conditions that would then focus on the West and NW where the highest temperatures would also transfer too. For those looking for more maintained dry conditions this looks more universally likely with little if any frontal rainfall anywhere after today for some considerable time. Then we have to look to the outer limits of the model runs today to see another general thought feeling between the models that a push of more unsettled and from some colder weather looks increasingly likely from the North later in the second week with rain at times for many and perhaps even wintry showers over the North but all this remains a long way off and is naturally open to change. So in a nutshell a lot of fine and dry weather for the next few weeks for all but the main caveat being it will not always mean wall to wall sunshine and high temperatures especially in the South where it may feel rather chilly at times in a brisk East wind and a lot of cloud at times.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday April 16th 2015

Yes quite a chilly east wind in the south by Sunday

I wonder what weather that would have brought us in January?   Drizzle probably.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY APRIL 16TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will slowly develop over Northern Britain with the remains of a weak front over Central areas moving further South and dissipating entirely by tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry, settled and occasionally warm weather across the UK. A little rain is likely at times especially later in week 2 with temperatures returning nearer to average.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A period of generally weak Jet flow activity remains forecast with the flow steered well North of the UK due to High pressure near the North of the UK itself. Later in the run though still fairly weak the flow will be directed South of the UK towards Spain and Portugal as Low pressure becomes more of a feature around the UK.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows High pressure across or near to the North of the UK over the next week or so with fine and dry weather with sunny spells and although the positioning of this could mean somewhat cooler temperatures than of late especially across the South there will be some pleasant weather to be enjoyed at times for all with the best warmth and sunshine likely in the NW. Later High pressure declines and the UK becomes much more at risk of rain or showers as pressure falls from both the North and West with temperatures not that warm either at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is much kinder than the operational and though it also shows some decline in the influence of High pressure through the second week the path to that involves High pressure largely remaing close to the SE with just occasional rain likely focused towards the NW with any rain reaching other areas slight and short-lived.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS clusters remain mixed for two weeks today with the overlying trend being for some sort of High pressure to the SW with a light NW flow down across the UK in what would be pargely average temperatures for early May.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure well established across the UK next week, remaining centred across the UK with light winds and dry weather for all with sunny spells and temperatures very respectable for many if not hot but with some chilly nights.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show any weak fronts near the South dissipating leaving the UK in the circulation of a High pressure over Northern Britain with a chilly NE flow over the South at times tempering the temperatures and dragging in some cloudier patches as well.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today loosely follows the trend of GFS by maintaining dry and fine weather across the UK over the next week as High pressure holds firm before rather more unsettled conditions develops as pressure falls from the NW with Low pressure gradually taking over control with rain at times by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains High pressure across the UK right out to the end of the run although High pressure becomes more in the form of a ridge from High pressure by then well to the NW of the UK and fine weather holding on across the UK though never impressively warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today has differed slightly this morning with the shift of High pressure to the South of the UK by 10 days time setting up a more traditional NW/SE split in the weather by then with rain at times especially across the North and West. In the short term there will be plenty of fine and dry weather as High pressure remains centred across the top of the UK

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night is beginning to trend towards something more unsettled as Low pressure over the Atlantic edges into the UK from the West and NW with High pressure receding away to the SE by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends this morning maintain High pressure well in control of the UK for most of the term of the outputs on offer today though a shift towards more unsettled weather with time is indicated still by some output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.3. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 89.1 pts and GFS at 87.0. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.3 pts over GFS's 61.9 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 47.7 pts over GFS at 43.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the models this morning especially in the short term with High pressure remaining dominant across Britain for the reliable future, probably centred a little further North and NW than would be ideal but ensuring a lot of fine and dry weather across all areas of the UK for some considerable time. Temperatures may be suppressed somewhat especially near the East coast where more cloud could drift in off a chilly North Sea at times. Elsewhere there should be some pleasantly warm sunny conditions especially in the sheltered West but clear skies overnight could bring the risk of grass frosts still so gardeners and growers beware. Then looking into the crystal ball of week 2 the general consensus is still for a slow decline in High pressure with the risk of some rain or showers slowly increasing across the UK probably from the West and NW as High pressure recedes away to the East and SE. Details of any such decline in conditions is very sketchy still and not very consistent in type so any deterioration in conditions remains at more than arms length and uncertain for the moment so we can all continue to enjoy the pleasant mid Spring conditions with little rainfall and average temperatures.

Next update from 08:00 Friday April 17th 2015

Looking generally very settled for the next 7 to 10 day range.

Average to warm temps to.

Dry spring... Wet summer. 

Not necessarily e.g. 1975, 1976, 1990, 1995 and March/April 2003.

We may as well enjoy the fine weather while it lasts. After all, it'll do what it wants whatever we post on here.