Nearly all recent GFS runs have outgunned a cool start with a very warm spell starting in around 10 days time, leading to positive anomalies by mid-month.
The majority have also suggested that warm conditions are likely to persist beyond day 16 when considering the broad scale pattern and likely progression going forward.
There's also a strong signal from CFS for a strong positive height anomaly to develop in the vicinity of Spain and France with a low height anomaly to the west of Iberia, which is about as toasty a pattern as you can get really.
This all leads me to give a model + signal derived prediction for an unusually warm May at
12.8*C
This could be make or break for the model method v. other methods! 
Edited by user
30 April 2015 22:12:25
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Reason: adjustment
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