If the exit poll is correct and the online polls are wrong, then that suggests the methodology of the online pollsters is invalid.

But that post mortem can wait until the actual, real results are in. I think the exit poll is likely to be out by a factor of 10%, but that would still leave Cameron in Number Ten.

Feels like 1992 to me. I'd be surprised if the exit poll is much wrong.

But, despite the talk of a 'win' the majority for any coalition isn't there this time, the Conservatives, instead of 58 LD's propping them up, might have 10 LDs (will they have the stomach?) and a few bowler hatters.

Does not as stable as the last five years to me. if I were a Conservative I'd be hoping the exit poll is wrong and the LDs have more seats...

I share your sentiments in many ways, Saint.

In my opinion, it has been what you mention in your second line above that has led to the rise of the SNP in recent years up here. Many Scots who in the past always voted Labour religiously no matter what now see them as being little, if at all, different from the Tories. The Lib Dems had been a fairly prominent voice here for a while, but the last 5 years has damaged their standing in Scotland severely, and they didn't do any better than Labour did in the last Scottish Parliament election in 2011.

Personally I'm hoping that the SNP get as many seats as possible tonight and Alex Salmond is elected to what has until now been Sir Malcolm Bruce's constituency, because Scotland will need to have a strong and clear voice at Westminster regardless of what happens tonight, but especially so if Dave & co get back in.

Just listening to BBC Radio 4 online and if the exit poll is correct, it would appear to be that UKIP voters in some marginals have seen the light and backed the Conservatives at the last minute.

It's not necessarily that the polls were wrong because if 25% of people were undecided this morning, then it's likely a lot have changed their minds over the past month or so.  The exit polls were fairly accurate at the last election but are not necessarily so this time, although I have a feeling they will be.  

The exit polls don't surprise me as I wasn't sure which way to vote and finally jumped to the other side, which other people I know have also done. 

The exit poll should be much closer than the polls.

If the polls were so wrong though, what's the point of having so many cheap polls, it's worse than noise!

Something else that might have happened is that many more UKIP likely voters got scared at the last minute and voted Con.

Extraordinary rumours swirling - most incredible is that Tories think they might have got Balls in Morley and Outwood. Surely not.

@SamFR

Yup, if the exit poll is right the pollster will do well to get credibility back again...

Anyway, for all the talk of the Scots running the place lets prepare ourselves for Peter Robinson being in the cabinet

Was always likely in my opinion. 

12 months ago I fully intended to vote UKIP; I haven't, I've voted Tory again. 

Fantastic exit poll, but it flies totally in the face of virtually every other poll during this campaign, so I'm sceptical, but this is a large poll, and it is people who have voted. 

That would be just amazing. Plus I hope Wee Dougie has been defenestrated.

As Warren posted above, the YouGov poll was simply a reconnect to previous pollsters to check they voted the way they said they intended to.

[Edit] listening to Radio 4 online - the BBC are wetting themselves trying to talk up the Labour prospects, it is so funny. Why don't they just calm down and wait for the actual results?

Now THAT would be an earthquake. As the piece ends, though - surely not. 

I take it Own Jones will do the decent thing and gas himself by morning!

As for the Brand effect........................

Sunderland South:

UKIP 8280

Cons: 7105

LD: 791

Labour 21218

Green 1095

Matches exit poll apparently.

That would cheer me up no end if he did get thrown out, but IIRC there were similar rumours in 2010 and he still got in.

On the Exit Poll, what a shocker for the Lib Dems, I really don't think it will be quite that bad for them (I hope).

Well, I dunno, that doesn't look like a bad result for Labour in Sunderland S and a big ukip vote...

The £ has shot up since the exit poll results were announced, so the rest of the world seem to want a Tory win.

Yeah, but it is Sunderland, a Parrot with a red rosette would get elected.

The increase of 18% for UKIP and the massive fall of 11% in LD vote is the biggest news.

Swing to UKIP of 7%.

its just an expected Labour figure. The news is UKIP

Matches exit poll apparently for that constituency.

We can only hope

If this turns out as per the exit poll I fully expect Milliband to be thrown to the wolfs.

I have switched off the BBC as their pathetic left wing pro labour bias is sickening.

And it looks like it is early confirmation of the exit poll according to Curtice.

Oh that would make my evening.

Actually it was several % out. Despite what the bloke is saying on BBC, when so many seats are so close, I think it shows how wrong the overall prediction might be.