20*C here with long sunny spells after a sparkling clear morning... luck of the draw!

Interesting model output for day 6 or 7 onward so far today - I'd say it has a 'forced' look to it, by which I mean that a large-scale signal is driving the models to explore a major pattern shift.

In this case, that looks to occur via a significant rise in pressure across much of Europe, starting in 6-7 days time, which has gained some momentum in the output over the past few days.

GFS seems determined to have a deep Atlantic trough to the NW of the UK at the same time, and ECM is also considering the idea.

The GFS 06z op run has edged a little closer to ECM - a comparison between the two (ECM on the right) now displays a reasonably similar pattern across the two, but with ECM a bit less progressive in terms of the trough pushing NE toward Norway:

Knowing how often GFS pushes ridges of high pressure aside too readily, the odds are that the south sees at least a glancing blow from the warmth building across Europe.

It could be more than that though, as the Euro High looks ready to put up a fight against the Atlantic westerlies (example, ECM 00z day 10 on the left). With other parameters (SSTs, soil moisture etc.) looking conducive to heatwave conditions across Europe, we could find ourselves flirting with some significant hot weather not long into June (example GFS 06z day 15 on the right):

Just look at the extent of the 15*C 850hPa isotherm on that GFS chart! This is what the earlier stages of the August 2003 heatwave looked like, and we're only in early June at the time of that chart 

It also serves to highlight the severe convective weather risk for us if we find ourselves in the company of an Iberian-sourced LP 

To summarise, I'm starting to feel a mix of excitement and concern when looking ahead to the first week or so of June. Recent summers have seen the hotter weather focused across eastern Europe and Scandinavia, but this year, the focus looks to be further west. Every year, some part of the globe has seen summer months setting new records for high average and maximum temperatures. I worry that it might be the turn of NW Europe this year, and we all know how much trouble that caused 12 years ago.

BUT we're looking at model output well outside the reliable at the moment, so we can't place much faith in these signals just yet. If anything, we could end up seeing roasting conditions in Spain and France while we recieve an absolute deluge. Just early warning signs, that's all... 

Hang on a sec. Summer is over? 

Bring it on

Local variances eh? 20.6c here and wall to wall sunshine. Typing this from the Lawns pub garden. 

June monsoon 

i was being a bit tongue in cheek but many on here believe in it.

More accurately known as the June Return of the Westerlies, though this year they never really went away.

So do the Met office.

I remember reading a press release on it a few years ago.

I never do believe it at all as it reserved for the tropic countries where they have monsoon seasons unlike in here it just a standard unsettled weather anytime of the year and type of rain always the same all year around.  Plus the temps does not reach 25C at night and 30C at daytime at all.

Look decent at times in here and likely a first car boot sales cancellation next Sunday since April as it continued went well despite quite very poor month in term of temps is the main factor not the rain as it been little every now and then.  Let hope more runs bringing support for a great start to June with nationwide HP everywhere and much warmer temps.  Interesting times ahead and well overdue for real warmth.

If it's heatwaves you're after you need to go where I am - Alaska. It's sod's law that two out my last three holidays have seen record-breaking warmth, first in Vegas in April and then Alaska in May. It's also sod's law that the cool conditions back home will be easing just as I return! (My holiday plan was to fly to somewhere snowy, as I've been snow-starved back home these last two winters. I did find some snow yesterday, but had to fly onto a glacier to see it! And even there, at 8C it was thawing rapidly.)

It just goes to show that when the jet kinks on a large scale it can take weeks and weeks for things to return to some semblance of normality.

Thursday to Monday looks quite unsettled on GFS, thence after settling down significantly according to the GFS.  Something of a trend towards a more settled outlook evident as we change seasons, possibly.

Quite a big warm up from the GFS ensembles from about the 3rd June. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM Op this morning looking toasty by day 10. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Mid 20's from GFS looking at that.......................that will be ok, no higher though

ECM looking very nice in it's extended range this morning...

Shades of May/June 2006? 

Very nice. I can almost feel the warmth from that lovely dark orange radiating from my screen! Still, it's 10 days off and many a winter cold spell has disappeared in a shorter time frame than that so this could go the same way. Too soon for me to start circulating rumours at work that we are in for a heatwave.....

Indeed, we could be in for a decent start to summer.  We should know quite soon where the controlling high will sit.