Agree

June 1995 was another one that must have had a pretty cool CET for the first half of the month. There were some warm days in isolation here during that period but it wasn't until the final 10 days or so of that June when the heat became persistent, the first of that summer's big heatwaves.

Still the best overall summer I've experienced, and by some margin as well.

With respect Matty I think some support for those reporting on temperatures below average of late should be given as I live not far from you and I have only on one day reached 21C this year so far and it certainly hasn't been in the last few days. Night times on the other hand have been well below average for what seems eternity. One must remember Daytime weather includes the night hours too and taken over 24 hrs temperature values have been below average for some while. It's all down to perception and while it might look and feel like Summer by day even here in the West Country of late the nights especially have numerically been 'bloody cold' for early June and not just the odd night here and there either--it's been going on for weeks. While it might look and feel Summery in the sunshine of late we should be achieving better values than we are. If it was cloudy with these temperatures as it was somewhat today the perception of Summer quickly becomes lost. Looking at tonight's 12zs true summer warmth might develop over the South next week with better temperatures by night too.

Whatever the temperature I'm back to the UK at some point next week so you can bet your life it will feel cold to me whatever the temperature.

And I think that's the difference. Feel cold? Is cold? I don't think temperature is relative. Cold is cold no matter what time of the year, and the days have not been cold. Not hot or as warm as you might hope in early June, but cold? Certainly not here. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 10TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will persist across Central Britain today with a thundery trough edging into SW England tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the Jet much weaker and lying to the North of the UK. The Southern arm will lie across the Mediterannean early next week while the Northern arm regroups to lie North of the UK again, sinking slowly South across the UK later next week before breaking up again through the rest of week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today again shows a move towards true Summer next week at least across Southern Britain as the thundery low pressure areas near Southern Britain over the weekend move away East and pressure builds across the South from the Azores. With warmer and humid air temperatures should be much higher than currently with plenty of warm sunshine with Northern areas though warmer less settled with a little rain at times. Late in the run another burst of thundery energy from the South is shown to affect the South of the UK despite High pressure being maintained close by to the South again later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a lot of High pressure based weather but after next weeks warmth from the Azores High it becomes less favourably positioned to ensure maintained warmth with cooler air shown back again with some showers at times in the second week

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows thundery Low pressure clearing away East early next week as a ridge from the Azores High moves in by Tuesday. Low pressure out to the NW may affect the NW at times though by midweek next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK becomes home to thundery Low pressure along with NW Eurpe in general before the NW show things cooling down again and clearing by the start of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows the thundery showery air at the weekend slowly replaced from the West by a ridge of High pressure. warm and eventually very warm weather reaches the South on this system after midweek with the North somewhat more cloudy and damp while all areas see a drop in temperatures somewhat by the end of the period though High pressure remaining well in control for all..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows thundery Low pressure slowly exiting the SE early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure from the Azores sits on our doorstep by midweek next week with fine very warm and sunny weather in the South by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows strong support for High pressure from the Azores to be ridged across the UK from the SW delivering fine, warm and sunny weather to many especially in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for High pressure to re-establish across Southern Britain from the middle of next week, better positioned to deliver much warmer air than of late.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.6 pts with UKMO at 82.03pts and GFS at 81.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 42.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.5 pts to 20.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models are continuing to develop a much more Summery look to them at last as the cool Northerly aspect wind and cool temperatures by night look to finally becoming a thing of the past next week as High pressure ridges up from the Azores across the Southern half of the UK at least. There is still some jostling around between the outputs on the overall longevity of this anticipated very warm period with some outputs indicating the chance that cooler and potentially showery air might return later but the ECM long term mean looks pretty solid on suggesting a very favourable position for the UK in 10 days and the GFS' s clusters aren't bad either with some sort of link between High pressure to the SW and a possible secondary build of pressure over Scandinavia. I must mention also that parts of the North may be on the fringes of this fine weather with some cloud and possible drizzly rain affecting the far NW at times later next week and this cooler air may extend further South at times through the second week but Eastern Scotland at least could benefit from very warm temperatures too in fohn effect conditions too for a time if things evolve as shown. While June is proving to be an OK sort of month so far in weather terms temperatures have never been that impressive and very low by night but I feel the bar is about to be raised and by the middle of next week it could be that two thirds of the UK at least could share some fine very warm days and warm nights with plenty of sunshine and the mostly dry start to June (after the first few days) look like being maintained with the exception of the local downpours of the coming days.

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 11th 2015

I was in London, so don't know what it was like in Bristol, but none the less that temperature still isn't cold, despite what it may have felt like lol. I'm not being pedantic for the sake of it. Certainly not warm I'll give you that

Excellent and informative post James. Thanks and well done.

As James posted above about the SST's.  I don't understand why there such a cool pooling residing in N Atlantic and around UK shores when we didn't get any thing cold last winter?  Surely it will have to rise up as summer sun are in full force over the ocean unless the Gulf Stream are shutting down already?  

Jires, did you not spend the winter in the UK?

Last winter was dominated by northwest winds, and this is the reason the sea temps are so low in the northeast Atlantic.

😊

I did but didn't see anything very cold either from the NW, just the temps are the same thing under NW flow in winter with mid to high single digit temps here.

but the polar maritime waters filtered south for extended period of time whilst the warmer Gulf Stream was cut off, this is why the sea is so cold up there.

Bit on the cool side but not bad after the weekend storms

Been a clear band of cloud visable out over the sea for a few hours now. Whilst sitting here enduring this chilly wind I'm looking towards that cloud and thinking 'that's our warm weather coming in' 😄

The trend seems to be that High Pressure, whilst not in the best place, will be closer generally which should allow some heat build day on day and bring something more akin to summer in max. temp. terms

I don't think it is that simple. While anomalies may be on the low side in the Atlantic, I wouldn't say actual SSTs are much different from normal. Probably no more than a degree or 2. Too little to have much of an impact I would have thought? Blues and reds on a map often look far more dramatic than what the reality may suggest.

Next week seems to be all about the angle of the jet stream across the Atlantic - does it flatten out and then take on a more SW-NE orientation as per the ECM 12z op run, or does it revert to a NW-SE orientation as per the GFS 18z?

Both solutions offer a lot of dry weather after the blip Friday-Saturday, but GFS struggles to provide warm temperatures away from the far south and southwest. ECM offers a taste of 'proper summer' for most parts Wednesday onward with low 20's maximums possible for many parts, perhaps sneaking up into the mid-20's in the far south and southwest.

Notice another similarity between the two solutions - generally speaking, west is best if you're looking to escape the cooler and most likely cloudier airmasses getting into Scandinavia and some central parts of Europe... or at least escape the worst of it in the case of the GFS 18z. That run really does do everything it can to hold the high pressure further west than has been the consensus of late - hopefully just a wobble and not a trend.

It's interesting to see persistent signals from the likes of GFS and CFS for high pressure to start visiting Europe more in the longer-term... but what this suggests to me is another attempt by the atmosphere to make a large scale adjustment that it has attempted several times already since early May but with only partial success. Will this time prove to be the one that finally allows some longer-lived areas of high pressure over Europe? The timing is a big deal for me as I'll be visiting the Balearic Isles in just under a couple of weeks time.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 11TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies across Northern areas today with a thundery Low over France moving North into Southern Britain later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow generally to the North of the UK and though undulating somewhat north and South through the two weeks it does more or less remain in situ as High pressure remains fairly close to the South of the UK for much of the time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today is a nice run if it's fine and warm summer weather your after with the thundery Low pressure of the weekend moving away East by Monday and allowing High pressure to build over or just off shore of the UK delivering increasingly warm and sunny weather for many with just the North experiencing a Westerly breeze and cloudier skies for a while next week before these areas too come into the fine and warm weather too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is equally set fair with High pressure becoming under control of the UK weather from early next week and lasting through to the end of the period with some very warm and sunny weather at times especially in the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to have the greater chance of being dominant to the UK in 14 days time though there are some options that show some more unsettled weather possible from off the Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure building strongly across the UK behind the thundery rain event at the weekend, settling over Southern Britain by midweek with fine and eventually warm weather developing for all but especially over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the thundery Low over France edging up into Southern and central England before receding away East and SE again by the end of the weekend with a strong build of High pressure across the UK by Tuesday of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too shows High pressure building again next week, near Southern Britain with some fine and increasingly warm weather developing. Northern areas will still be affected by a Westerly breeze and more cloud and as a result cooler conditions but even here a lot of dry weather with the highest temperatures looking likely to be across the SW of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure out to the SW of the UK later next week with the weekend thundery rain clearing away to leave an improving picture next week with the South seeing the best of the improvements with fine and increasingly warm weather under variable cloud while the North sees more cloud and perhaps a little rain as troughs brush through.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too has High pressure developing strongly across the British Isles through the early days of next week as the thundery Low pressure at the weekend weakens and moves away SE. It then largely remains in situ for the rest of the run with fine and warm summer weather for many areas as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging for a sustained period of warm and sunny conditions under a tradiltional Summer ridge of High pressure stretching across the UK from the Azores.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has strengthend further for the UK to become strongly influenced by Summer High pressure over or close to the South of the UK in the mid term.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.4. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.6 pts and GFS at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.8 over 42.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.3 pts to 21.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The models have strengthened their affirmation that High pressure is likely to lie across the UK next week with fine, sunny and very warm conditions looking very likely especially across the South and SW. Northern and NE areas may be at risk of somewhat cloudier Westerly or NW breezes and as a result somewhat cooler conditions at times but even here there is likely to be some fine and warm weather too. As an extension of the Azores High pressure this High pressure should contain more humid weather than of late and this should be most noticeable by night with some much warmer nights expected next week then many parts of the UK have experienced so far this season. After the thundery rain events of the coming few days there looks to be a famine in rain amounts thereafter especially in the South where some parts (going by this morning's output) could see the period up to the end of the run completely dry from Monday. Of course I muct add the caveat that though dry weather looks pretty guaranteed the positioning of the High will be instrumental into providing any one place with the highest temperatures but going on todays performance from the models the SW looks best favoured for this. It's nice to report on a set of models that more or less sing from the same hymn sheet and for once I think I can confidently say that the UK is heading for it's first spell of proper summer weather when we can share in all elements that fine weather can bring at this time of year and that includes high temperatures, something that has been sadly missing in the recent spell of good weather.

Next update from 08:00 Friday June 12th 2015

Thanks Martin, sounds good!

Over on Net Weather they're getting ahead of themselves as usual declaring the last third of the month is in the bag now for warm sunny weather. I'm I missing something.

GFS is showing this at the moment with settled weather and temps around the mid twenties in some parts of England. Let's see if the next run continues with the same theme.

Still only one model of course.

New thread coming along in time for the GFS 12z run, closing this one shortly.