theweatheroutlook

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schmee
07 July 2015 17:16:41
No thunder here. We have a corridor of very heavy rain running in a 2.5mile strip south of Guildford and north of Billingshurst.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Phil 2804
07 July 2015 17:22:22

Inside of Aberdeen Airport flooded, I would recommend anyone with Facebook searched for the Fubar News page to see photos and video of the aftermath of epic storm here today. 

KevBrads1
07 July 2015 20:43:55
Some really torrential showers today with thunder thrown in

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schmee
07 July 2015 21:24:27
14c clear.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
richardabdn
09 July 2015 10:30:09


Thunderstorm here in Aberdeen. Extensive flash flooding across the city really bad flooding in Bridge of Don and towards Potterton. Three storms in a week, must be a city record and just in time for my annual summer holiday here. 


Originally Posted by: Phil 2804 


Coincided perfectly with me being abroad as did last years sole storm and the last major storm in August 2010. Now I'm back you can guarantee there will be no more storms just more NW'ly crud.


Here are my stats for the three storms I missed:


2nd July: 9.2mm total with 6.6mm in 10 minutes between 0120 and 0130 GMT. Peak rain rate 225.8mm/hr.


4th July: 20.4mm total, peak rain rate 36.4mm/hr


7th July: 43.8mm total, 21.4mm between 1400 and 1430 GMT, peak rain rate 80.6mm/hr.


The rain rate of 225.8mm/hr on 2nd July was the highest in my 10 years of records. Previous highest was 209.4mm/hr on 9th August 2010.

Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


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2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Arcus
10 July 2015 15:02:24
Some nice jellyfish clouds forming here as convection hits the dry layer and virga forms beneath the domed cumulus cloud.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
LeedsLad123
10 July 2015 15:17:59

We have virga as well, and AcCas.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Charmhills
10 July 2015 16:04:32

Some nice jellyfish clouds forming here as convection hits the dry layer and virga forms beneath the domed cumulus cloud.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Same here.


Sadly to stable to fire.

Loughborough, EM.

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ozone_aurora
10 July 2015 16:37:38

Some thunder and lightning just off the SW coast of Wales and around Brest.

Sevendust
10 July 2015 18:22:27

Narrow band of high based storms marching across SW England at the moment. Not exactly forecast!

picturesareme
10 July 2015 18:30:55
Sky over portsmouth has been looking somewhat convective.

Castellanus, mammatus, cumulus, etc
Arcus
10 July 2015 18:32:59


Narrow band of high based storms marching across SW England at the moment. Not exactly forecast!


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Agreed - forecast was for some thundery stuff N. Pennines northward Dave, but clearly there was an underestimated erosion of the cap further south.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2015 18:34:35


Narrow band of high based storms marching across SW England at the moment. Not exactly forecast!


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Just seen our local forecast Dave and only the odd shower mentioned and you're right no mention of any thundery activity.

Sevendust
10 July 2015 18:37:43


 


Just seen our local forecast Dave and only the odd shower mentioned and you're right no mention of any thundery activity.


Originally Posted by: JimC 


I wasn't expecting it but this afternoons skies seemed to indicate instability 

JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2015 18:49:56

Just had a peek outside and there's some classic mammatus  clouds up above and looks quite threatening at the moment.

picturesareme
10 July 2015 19:15:05
As mentioned there has been plenty of mammatus about this evening, however I can see some rather large impressive looking stuff out to my west at the moment. Sadly the camera on the iPhone is crap, and the zoom even worse, so I can't get a decent picture of this.
JimC
  • JimC
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2015 20:15:17

A couple of pics from earlier, it's still looking like we could get a taste of something here soon, probably just rain knowing the kind of luck I've had this week.


UserPostedImage 


 


UserPostedImage 

Stewart
10 July 2015 20:15:22
Was just about to post about the mammatus above right now; clearly widespread across the south/southwest. Been a beautiful day here though.Brief active spell coming up?
Stewart
Southmoor or Harwell, Oxfordshire
jeffbeanpole1
10 July 2015 20:17:42
Good continuous lightening display across the Bristol Channel from here during the last hour. Only heard a rumble once but saw at least 15 lightening strikes. A friend captured a good image of a single strike.
Llantwit Major, Vale of Glamorgan. Wales. 15m ASL.
picturesareme
10 July 2015 20:30:16
UserPostedImage 
nsrobins
11 July 2015 22:17:40
Low risk of some robust convective elements scattered around Sun pm. Best guess for the odd thunderstorm would be M40 corridor and down and around M25 north 3pm - 6pm
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Stormchaser
11 July 2015 22:28:17
HIRLAM is keen on decent breaks in the cloud for most of England tomorrow with some heavy showers in the afternoon.

I'd be happy with that given temps nudging 20*C or so - better than the totally cloudy version of events 🙂
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Keep Calm and Forecast On
nsrobins
16 July 2015 07:38:54
Despite the enthusiasm of Estofex I am not so convinced of widespread activity tonight. The models are mixed with respect storm mode parameters, and a night of robust storms and frequent lightning is not likely IMO.
However - the leading edge of the moist unstable plume that will clip the SE after 18Z could well trigger elevated activity so best guess for a few storms tonight would be Kent maybe Sussex up to London. The main Atlantic frontal system could also trigger a storm or two further North as it engages with the glancing blow from the south. I can't at this stage see anything like the recent event on 4th July.

Disclaimer: Even at this timeframe, forecasting intensity and distribution of plume axis convection is a challenge so pinch of salt with this one!
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jiries
16 July 2015 07:46:33

Despite the enthusiasm of Estofex I am not so convinced of widespread activity tonight. The models are mixed with respect storm mode parameters, and a night of robust storms and frequent lightning is not likely IMO.
However - the leading edge of the moist unstable plume that will clip the SE after 18Z could well trigger elevated activity so best guess for a few storms tonight would be Kent maybe Sussex up to London. The main Atlantic frontal system could also trigger a storm or two further North as it engages with the glancing blow from the south. I can't at this stage see anything like the recent event on 4th July.

Disclaimer: Even at this timeframe, forecasting intensity and distribution of plume axis convection is a challenge so pinch of salt with this one!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Unlikely to happen as we had no sun for nearly a week and still overcast and cool here.  I always remember the 90's storms was well made to happen after days of sunny weather increasing humidity at the end and very high temps.  

nsrobins
16 July 2015 09:23:22


 


Unlikely to happen as we had no sun for nearly a week and still overcast and cool here.  I always remember the 90's storms was well made to happen after days of sunny weather increasing humidity at the end and very high temps.  


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Why do you think you need sun for a week Jiries?


In the right airmass a few hours of heating is often more than enough to fire local convection. Imports of course arrive from the south where conditions can be quite different to here.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO

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