Met Office Hadley        19.0c.     Anomaly       3.5c.   Provisional  to  5th.

Metcheck                    18.81c.   Anomaly      2.85c.

Netweather                 19.69c.   Anomaly      3.2c.

Clevedon Weather        18.8c.    Anomaly      0.5c.

Mount   Sorrel             19.1c.     Anomaly      2.6c.

My    Mean                  19.9c.    Anomaly       0.5c.

My Annual    10.6c.   Difference  4.9c.

Met Office Hadley       18.3c.     Anomaly    2.8c.    Provisional  to  6th.

Metcheck                   18.53c.   Anomaly    2.07c.

Netweather                19.11c.   Anomaly    2.62c.

Clevedon Weather      18.6c.     Anomaly    0.7c.

Mount    Sorrel           18.8c.     Anomaly    2.3c.

My   Mean                  19.02c.   Anomaly    0.2c.

Here are the predictions for July. I fear we are going to see some large prediction errors again this month, for a third month in a row. Unless another heatwave comes along towards the end of the month many predictions are I think going to be way too high again.

Given we're likely to be under 18C by tomorrow's update, I'm already starting to think I've over-cooked it at 17.0...

Everyone from GW to Lanky looking good I thinx! 

It's only going one way. Forgot to have a go this month but it seemed it wasn't going to be hot for long

Met Office Hadley        18.1c.     Anomaly       2.5c.  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                    18.15c.   Anomaly       1.69c.

Netweather                 18.81c.   Anomaly       2.31c.

Clevedon   Weather     18.4c.     Anomaly        0.5c.

Mount     Sorrel          18.6c.      Anomaly        2.1c.

My     Mean                18.7c.      Anomaly.        0.7c.

My Annual    10.4c.   Difference   4.7c.

And... We've gone under 18c;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

17.8 to 8th July....

We've lost nearly 7C in a week (admittedly from a ridiculously high starting point) Got to be one of the most impressive CET collapse's for a long time?

Up and down the rest of this week.....

Had                       17.8c   A    2.1c.

Metcheck               17.66c.  Anomaly   1.20c.

Netweather            18.39c.  Anomaly   1.9c.

Clevedon Weather  18.1c.    Anomaly   1.2c.

Mount   Sorrel        17.8c.   Anomaly    1.3c.

My     Mean            18.3c.   Anomaly    1.1c.

Last update from me for a while. On holiday for a week from Saturday

Unusually my CET estimate is currently slightly above the provisional Hadley figure. Even so the CET is on an inexorable trend downwards after this weekend. Over the next three days it should be fairly stable. Next week looks somewhat on the cool side.

Current output suggests by the 23rd we will be down to 16.67C which is only just above average. So we are still on track for another very close to average month. That would be the 5th month this year to be very close to average.

Thanks GW! 

16'S look's favored at the mo.. But a late month warm push could take us back into the 17's... 

Meanwhile Hadley is "in"

17.4 to 9th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

There's a chance of sneaking in a couple of warm days Thu-Fri next week which would ease the pain for those who went with the high 17's or low 18's.

Otherwise, the far south(east) continues to be the favoured location for warmth next week, often a few degrees above the CET zone.

...which means that a late month heatwave is very much a requirement if the CET is to finish as close to 18*C as I would like it to 

Met Office Hadley   17.4c.    Anomaly     1.7c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck               17.72c.  Anomaly      1.26c.

Netweather            18.13c.  Anomaly       1.63c.

Clevedon Weather   18.2c.   Anomaly       1.1c.

Mount  Sorrel          17.9c.   Anomaly       1.4c.

My   Mean               18.4c.   Anomaly       1.0c.  

Looking at some of the latest model outputs and it looks like the CET will be going back up again.

Not Much Changed Today.....

Met Office Hadley            17.4c.       Anomaly       1.6c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                        17.69c.     Anomaly       1.23c.

Netweather                     18.15c.     Anomaly       1.66c.

Clevedon   Weather         18.2c.       Anomaly       1.1c.

Mount    Sorrel                17.9c.       Anomaly       1.4c.

My      Mean                    18.4c.       Anomaly       1.0c.

I think the general trend will still be down... Have a feeling, as GW predicts, that the the final number will be very close to average (somewhere around low to mid 16's)

It depends on the balance of power between a mid-Atlantic trough and a Scandinavian trough.

Small changes in the strength of the jet stream seem to make all the difference in recent model output... it's been totally unreliable with wild swings and roundabouts

After GFS and UKMO favoured the Scandi trough this morning, they've both backed off this evening, GFS just a little and UKMO quite a lot. Unfortunately a fair bit of the 'warm' weather across the middle swathe of the UK involves nights in the mid-teens and days in the high-teens, maybe low 20's but with not much sun to be enjoyed.

GFS 12z CET return estimates for this coming week:

Mon 16-17*C, Tue 17-18*C, Wed 16-18*C, Thu 19-21*C, Fri 15-17*C, Sat 12-15*C, 15-17*C.

So a slight rise possible Tuesday through Thursday, then a drop Friday-Sunday, based on the raw values from this particular model run.

Funnily enough the run throws out a UK high for lower-res but it starts unusually cool, gradually warming up through to day 16. I'd be looking for the high to set up further east or at least south as I doubt the late-month warmth would be enough to undo the damage done by five days of clear, fresh conditions.

Not that we can at all count on finding ourselves looking at a decent high in the first place 

I 'spose if things go as shown by GFS I'll at least have the satisfaction of having got the overall pattern right for the month even if I was way too optimistic on the CET. Should have gambled and favoured the cool down more than the hot start

The 18z op is a bit warmer Tuesday-Thursday which is nice to see, though ECM doesn't look quite as warm for that period. Small margins!

Obviously ECM offers much higher CET prospects in the longer term so I'd still take that run as a whole over the GFS option 

Just home from holiday and I'm really surprised that mine was one of the lowest guesses this month.  I think this proves what I've often thought, that we tend to put in our predictions according to the weather at the time we're making them.  I had to make my July guess early as I was going away on 24th June, so I went fairly average as the temps at that time were average.  Most of you would have made your predictions when the country was baking in a heatwave and have gone considerable higher. 

Met Office Hadley       17.4c.      Anomaly      1.6c.   Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                   17.65c.    Anomaly      1.19c.

Netweather                18.09c.    Anomaly      1.6c.

Clevedon Weather      18.1c.      Anomaly      1.2c.

Mount    Sorrel           17.9c.      Anomaly      1.4c.

My   Mean                  18.3c.      Anomaly      1.1c.

My Annual     10.3c.   Difference   4.6c.  

Down slightly today.

Met Office Hadley         17.3c.      Anomaly         1.5c.     Provisional    TO   13TH.

Metcheck                     17.61c.    Anomaly         1.15c.

Netweather                  18.0c.     Anomaly          1.51c.

Clevedon Weather         18.0c.    Anomaly          1.3c.

Mount  Sorrel                17.8c.    Anomaly          1.3c.

My  Mean                      18.2c.    Anomaly          1.2c. 

Met Office Hadley          17.3c.       Anomaly       1.4c..   Provisional  to  14th.

Metcheck                      17.51c.     Anomaly       1.05c.

Netweather                   17.96c.     Anomaly       1.47c.

Clevedon Weather         18.0c.       Anomaly       1.3c.

Mount   Sorrel               17.8c.       Anomaly       1.3c

My   Mean                     18.1c.      Anomaly        1.3c.

15.3C (+0.3C) here

Time to be doing this CET... Been out all day......

Met office Hadley     No update...

Metcheck                17.40c.     Anomaly   0.93c.

Netweather             17.87c.     Anomaly   1.38c.

Clevedon Weather    17.9c.      Anomaly    1.4c.

Mount   Sorrel          17.7c.      Anomaly    1.2c.

My    Mean               18.0c.      Anomaly    1.4c.

Ooooooopppppsssss....

Someone at the UK Met seem's to have let the CET domain expire!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

How embarrassing. How embarrassing.