Today tells the story of this summer perfectly: 18C across the Midlands, scraping 20C in London. Cloud cloud cloud. In Kent and East Sussex, sunny spells and 24C at Herstmonceaux.

Then we cross the channel: 31C in Lille. 33C in Reims. That's only a couple of hours from the ferry. And Troyes, at the southern edge of Champagne 3 hours down the autoroute: 36C. Mid 30s again tomorrow across Central and Eastern France.

That something we should address about this serious problem that we cannot ignore it, it a serious thing if this going to operate for modern summer with high uppers, rain and cool maxes and warmer maxes with lower uppers which this week models are showing so I would feel it warmer than this weekend weather.

Once 00z September arrived we would be looking at 2 weeks proper sustained settled spell with temperatures warmer than today maxes and cooler nights.  More like 6-10C to 18-24C in here for 2 weeks so pleasant enough.  My mid month holiday are looking good and would be more guaranteed that it will come off than booking your holiday in August and 100% chance the models will issue you bad charts.  Really feel sorry for most staff at work took a week off.  Surely by now many should learn that taking a vacation in August to stay at home is a death wish.   Good riddance to August as the only month that always ruin things for everyone 2003.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY AUG 31ST 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure will clear Eastern Britain today followed by a cold and showery Northerly flow between High pressure developing across the Eastern Atlantic and Low pressure near Denmark.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up somewhat later with some rain in the NW and mostly dry conditions elsewhere.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast pattern shows the Jet Stream clearing out of the UK to the East over the coming days. The flow becomes split and light well South and North of the UK. through week 2 before it strengthens across the Atlantic from Canada and blows East over Northern Britain towards the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the working days of this week as Low pressure takes it's time to exit the scene East across Europe. Later in the week High pressure topples down across the UK from the West and NW with a settled and quiet spell of weather with warm sunshine by day but chilly and possibly misty nights. Later in the run the High receded back to the SW somewhat maintaining fine if rather cloudy conditions in the South while the North see the return of Atlantic winds and some rain or showers, possibly extending to all areas late in the period as pressure falls generally.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows a very similar evolution through Week 1 with the cool Northerly flow taking until the weekend to be cut off by High pressure toppling SE over the UK. So a showery and cool week before dry and fine conditions develop over next weekend. The trend through Week 2 shows Low pressure slipping South and East across the UK displacing the High with windy and cool weather returning with some rain for all with the weather then turning benign and quite towards the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a 80/20 split in favour of High pressure either ridged across the UK or centred over the top of us with fine, pleasantly warm  and quiet early Autumn weather as a result. The 20% show a more unsettled feed of  cool West or NW winds and occasional rain from Low pressure towards Scandinavia.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cool week across the British Isles with the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West or NW of Scotland and Low pressure over Germany and the continent in general. A showery Northerly flow slowly weakens by next weekend as a ridge slips South over the UK but maintaining a Northerly element to the wind it will still feel cool but become largely dry by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning replicate the raw data fairly well again today with generally Northerly winds and minor troughs running South in the flow especially over the east where showers will be at their most prolific. Elsewhere a lot of dry and fine weather seems likely up to and including most of next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure to the west and Low pressure to the East with a Northerly feed down across all parts of the UK through the working days of the week. then at the weekend the High topples over Northern areas before moving away to the NE early next week. So a lot of dry and cool weather with just scattered showers this week before becoming calm and fine over Northern Britain at the weekend while winds though light veer east in the South before pressure gently falls for all next week as lower pressure threatens from the South and West by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with little differences to the overall pattern from the other output. Towards the end of the run the High to the West edges closer in with a trend to back winds to a less chilly West or NW direction especially over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through this week before the High to the West finally makes it's move across the UK early next week with some fine and warmer weather for a time. Then towards the end of the period at Day 10 Low pressure to the NW declines the High to allow Westerly winds and rain at times to extend slowly SE from the NW towards the back end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from this morning continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time with the suggestions that it could be sliding away slowly SE in the following days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have reasserted their desire to build High pressure across the UK at least for a time through the coming weekend and into next week before a slow decline in conditions again thereon.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.7 pts followed by ECM at 86.2 and GFS at 83.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.7 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.4 pts to 34.8 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the dominant theme to talk about in the model output this morning. It's position is far from ideal for the UK though as it spends all this week to the West of the UK and coupled with Low pressure over Northern Europe winds are constantly fed down from a Northerly source across the UK. So after today's remnants of thundery rain exit the East all areas share similar weather with a Northerly breeze, rather strong in the East for a time together with a mix of sunshine and showers. While there shouldn't be many showers across the South and West some Eastern areas could see some heavy and thundery ones at times early in the period and skies here could stay mostly cloudy accentuating the cool feel. It's not until the weekend when the models show a general shift towards bringing the High pressure closer to or indeed over the UK with increasingly fine and sunny and warmer conditions as a result of the Northerly flow being cut off. Night's could stay chilly and misty though despite warmer days. From early next week on there are suggestions from all of the longer term output of at least a temporary return of more unsettled weather, probably from the North-west but the 14 day clusters from GFS still indicate a lot of High pressure dominated weather even at that point so the jury is out on how or how long any breakdown could or will occur. So for the most part the models look a shade better to me than yesterday morning's crop with gently improving conditions over the UK over the upcoming week and while no heatwave being on the cards if the showers can be escaped there will be a lot of dry, fine and eventually a little warmer weather to be enjoyed possibly extending rather longer than this if the longer term models have disposed of the High cell over the UK next week too quickly.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 1st 2015

Yes, all the models have converged to forecast a truly miserable week for the east coast

Yes thank heavens we don't have warm sunny weather in summer...

Actually the average summer max temp in Reims is only a degree above London. Just not this year.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 1ST 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather for many next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the recent NE moving flow over the UK now finally exited East of the UK with the flow well away from the UK for most of the rest of the week. A weak arm moves South down the North Sea later in the week and weekend before this too decays as the main thrust of the flow is well to the NW early next week moving NE. It then turns sharply South later next week to the UK or points further South as well as strengthening markedly too and blowing on a West to East course.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the next 4-5 days with showers in places as the pattern of High pressure to the West of the UK and Low to the East persists. With time the High gains supremacy as it moves slowly East across Northern Britain over the weekend and start to next week. This will cut off the cool Northerly flow, veering it towards the East in the South but flat calm in the North. Warmer days are likely with sunny spells but cool and misty nights. Then as the High continues East or NE towards Scandinavia the pattern becomes more complex with various incursions of lower pressure from the South and eventually the West and NW threatening the UK by ending the fine spell with showers then the risk of more windy and wet weather from the NW for all by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run today shows a very similar process to the operational run in bringing the High across the Uk from the West by early next week displacing the cool northerly feed with light and variable winds, warmer weather with plenty of sunshine by day and misty nights. Then the passage of the High to the East on this run maintains much more of a ridge across the UK with fine and warmer weather for many with no real major breakdown indicated within the 14 day time frame.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an estimated 60/40 split in maintaining an influence from High pressure positioned to the South or SW of the UK for most areas away from the far North in 14 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a continuation of the cool North or NW flow across the UK until at least the weekend when the High to the West of Ireland gently moves East to be approaching the western coasts of the UK by early next week. Sunshine and showers chiefly across the East would be the pattern until the weekend when drier and less cool weather encroaches in by day at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a continuation of the rather cool and showery feed of Northerly winds blowing down across the UK for the remainder of the week with less cool air gradually feeding down from the NW towards the weekend perhaps with some rain as a frontal wave slips SE over the UK..

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very little change in the current pattern of weather over the next 3-4 days with sunshine and a scattering of showers for all areas in a cool breeze. The pattern is then complicated by a frontal zone moving South at the weekend perhaps with some thick cloud and rain before High pressure finally makes it's move across the UK and on towards Scandinavia next week. This cuts off the cool northerly flow and things are shown to warm up considerably next week as winds freshen from the East and SE dragging warm continental air to all. Pressure falling to the SW at Day 10 would have to be watched over the coming days following Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme with little differences to the overall pattern from the other output. Towards the end of the run the High to the West edges closer in with the same theme of the rest of the output suggesting much less cool air eventually affecting the UK under fine conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through the remainder of this week. We have to wait for the passage of a trough South across the UK towards the weekend before the High to the West finally makes it's move East across the UK, cutting off the Northerly feed and introducing fine and much warmer conditions. Then through next week the High recedes away to the East over Europe but we have to wait several days before any major signs of breakdown become shown, on this run from the West and SW

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night continues to endorse the prospect that the UK could lie under High pressure in 10 days time all part of a theme to drift it across the UK and away to the East from around the 10 day point on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models all support High pressure moving East across the UK from the weekend with no strong trends on what happens thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.2 pts followed by UKMO at 96.0 pts and GFS at 95.1 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.7 pts followed by ECM at 86.2 and GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.6 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.5 pts to 34.6 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The models continue to show the very slow progression towards High pressure crossing into the UK from the West later this coming weekend. In the interim period what we have now looks like sticking for some time to come yet with a cool Northerly flow persistent across all areas. While a reasonable amount of dry weather is likely for many showers are likely too, locally heavy towards the East but with some bright early Autumn sunshine too. Also at the end of this 4-5 day period most models suggest a trough running South early in the weekend which brings a spell of cloud and rain South which in it's wake is the catalyst that prompts the High to the West to move across the UK, cutting off the cool feed and replacing it with little or no wind, warmer sunny spells by days and misty nights. There are various options shown from then on as models differ somewhat on what to do with the High next week. Most output shifts it to the East with some warm and dry weather for much of the UK with sunny spells as winds settle from the East or SE, strongly on GEM. Once the High moves to the East other output suggests that a ridge will be maintained across the UK and dry and very pleasant weather continues for many as a result whereas in the 10-14 day time-frame some suggestion from both ECM and GFS that some ingress of more unsettled weather from either the South, West or NW is knocking on the door at that time. However, there is little common ground between outputs at that range this morning so I will treat these long term evolutions with little confidence at this time. So there you have it, we have 3-4 days more of these chilly and showery northerly winds before warmer and calmer conditions look likely from late in the weekend and much of next week with a hint only of a breakdown at the end of the forecast period. All in all the above indicates typical early Autumn weather especially once the High takes hold from the weekend. This could of course involve some cool morning's of mellow mists and fruitfulness with some fine almost summer-like afternoons. It also suggests that there will be very little in the way of rain across the UK for a while once this week's showers clear out of the way.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 2nd 2015

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens

Quite a lot of members going on the warmer side and hopefully a heatwave to be develop when time come near as perfect timing for my mid month 1 week off. 

Bugger off jet stream and don't rush back!

Obviously people were so excited by the 12z's they've not had a chance to put their thoughts in a post

Some pleasant settled weather to come after some showery coolish stuff over the next few days. GFS doesn't go mad on the settled stuff, with a generally cool and somewhat unsettled spell setting in after our HP has wandered off.

ECM looks intriguing at T240 with an active LP butting up against a strong Scandi HP.

All in all pretty typical fare I guess - a few warmer days, a few cooler days and a few wetter days. 

Not bothered with the ens tonight - given the differences between GFS and ECM later on I'd say where the HP declines to is the thing to wait for then the weather after that should become a bit clearer.

My first thoughts on the ECM 12z 240hrs chart tonight were 'if only it was January'. High pressure over Scandinavia and Greenland. Low pressure to the SW. Strong ESE flow...ring any bells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

if only it was July - cracking summer chart.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 2ND 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Cool and showery this week before things warm up from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow very slack over and around the UK with the main arm harmlessly away to the North of the UK over the coming days. The flow dives South over the North Sea over the weekend before gradually becoming an undulating pattern in the vicinity of 50-55deg North across and to the West of the UK through the 2nd week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a cool Northerly flow blowing down across the UK through the next 3-4 days with showers in places as the pattern of High pressure to the West of the UK and Low to the East persists. Then over the weekend the large High to the West of the UK migrates East across Britain delivering fine, sunny and less cool weather. This then persists for several days but then becomes eroded from the NW by Atlantic troughs edging SE. The pattern deepens in Week 2 with Low pressure taking control across all areas with a pattern of rain or showers at times setting up an early Autumn period of blustery winds and average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational with a period of fine and less cool weather at the weekend as High pressure moves East over us. Then as with the operational this declines in favour of a stronger Atlantic Westerly pattern of winds for all areas with rain and showers at times in Week 2 with winds quite strong at times with gales towards the NW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have switched much more in favour of a more unsettled period of weather by mid month as Low pressure off the Atlantic takes control most likely positioned to the NW of the UK. This pattern is covered by at least 65% of members while the other 35% show less unsettled conditions at least for the South while the North and NW are almost blanket covered in unsettled conditions by all members in 14 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a continuation of the cool North or NW flow across the UK until at least the weekend when the High to the West of Ireland gently moves East into the UK but as weakening feature. Nevertheless the cool Northerly winds will become a thing of the past by the end of the weekend with fine and less cool weather by day with sunny spells while nights remain calm and come increasingly misty in rural parts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a continuation of the rather cool and showery feed of Northerly winds blowing down across the UK for the remainder of the week with less cool air gradually feeding across the UK later in the weekend as troughs clear away to the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very little change in it's output this morning to that of yesterday morning. After several more days of cool and potentially showery weather a band of cloud and a little rain early in the weekend clears South with High pressure crossing East over the UK with fine and sunny and less cool weather as a result. Through next week the High moves away NE to Scandinavia and a strong but warm SE flow develops with increasingly unsettled weather nudging up from the SW towards the end of the run as pressure falls to the West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme in as much as High pressure is shown to move across the UK late in the weekend with less cool and fine weather for all as a result. Then as this pulls away East next week a ridge is maintained across the UK with fine and relatively warm conditions persisting for many areas although the NW may cloud over under a SW wind with a little rain by midweek..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a cool Northerly flow being maintained across the UK through the remainder of this week. We have to wait for the passage of a trough South across the UK towards the weekend before the High to the West finally makes it's move East across the UK, cutting off the Northerly feed and introducing fine and much warmer conditions. Then through next week the High declines to the South or SE and more changeable conditions are introduced ino the North and West though on this run effects in the South are muted with a lot of fine weather persisiting out to the end of the run with rain at times returning only to the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows that the previous day's of High pressure is showing signs of moving slowly away to the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have changed little in firstly their movement into the UK of High pressure at the weekend and secondly in the confusion and disagreements in where the High migrates or dissolves away to in the period that follows next week and beyond.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM tieing with UKMO at 96.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.5 pts followed by ECM at 86.1 and GFS at 83.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.5 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.8 pts to 34.5 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS We still have three or four more days of this stark reminder that we are entering Autumn now with Northerly winds dominant over all of the UK until the end of the weekend with sunshine and showers and jolly cool nights. It looks like a band of cloud and occasional rain will slip South over the UK at the start of the weekend and behind this is when the High to the West of the UK makes it's move into the UK from the West. The main result of this will be to cut off the cool Northerly feed and bring warmer sunny spells by day though cool misty early Autumn nights are still likely. That is as far as any guarantees in the weather that follows goes this morning I'm afraid as all models then show a cocktail of various and very different options as far as what happens next week and beyond. GFS (well supported by the Control and Cluster runs) shows a full blooded change to Atlantic Westerlies and unsettled conditions for all from not long after midweek next week while GEM is still on the track of a strong Scandinavian High, strong SE winds and fronts moving up into the South from the SW. NAVGEM holds High pressure to the East in control as a ridge from it maintains fine weather over much of the South and Central slice of the UK leaving UKMO and ECM with a much slacker looking Hgh entering Britain at the end of the weekend and start to next week before ECM moves on to maintain fine conditions across the majority of the South with only the NW seeing any meaningful attack from Atlantic Low pressure. So which is right? That is anyones guess this morning and I don't think it will be resolved until we get the High out West into the UK later this weekend before we can pin down anything that might evolve thereafter. So concentrating for now on what is more or less certain a trend towards less cool, fine and dry weather is likely for all at least for a time commencing this weekend and probably lasting well into next week for some and possibly more. Thereafter, it's a case of more runs needed I'm afraid.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 3rd 2015

Thank you Martin for the output. People gone back to school and it turns out nice again ....

Atleast one model looking at unseasonably cold Autumn weather for Europe next week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 3RD 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East and High pressure to the West of the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of rain returns to at least the NW later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow situated well South over Spain and North over Iceland. The Northern arm links to the Southern arm via the North Sea over the weekend while staying well to the NW of the UK for the start of next week. Through the second week the trend is for the flow to sink South over or to the South of the UK with time resuming distturbed cyclonic weather patterns over the British Isles.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a few more days of this cool Northerly flow before the HIgh pressure to the West of Ireland finally makes landfall across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week with less cool and bright days though nights will remain cool and misty. Through the second half of the run the High slips slowly away East and South but still maintains some influence for many until the final days of the run when Atlantic Low pressure bring a batch of rain and strong winds East over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational in Week 1 with a lot of dry, fine and gradually less cool weather by day affecting all areas from the weekend. Through the second week the High is shown to edge East into Northern Europe and becomes a blocking feature with low pressure to the West and SW unable to make much inroads into the UK and affecting just extreme Western regions. Things do become a little more changeable at the end of the period as weakening troughs stagger across the UK from the West.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show quite a mixed bag with the bias slightly in favour af an Atlantic influence most likely in 14 days with Westerly winds bringing the risk of times especially in the North. Having said that there are quite a few members who show influence of High pressure to the East of the UK playing some role in keeping things rather drier and warmer.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving gently east across the UK later in the weekend and the start of next week. A period of sunny skies and light and less cool breezes looks likely for all areas up to the middle of next week at least and while nights will still be cool and misty days could become rather warm in the sunshine.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in too over the weekend. It also shows a cold front wavering Southward early in the weekend with some rain for a time. As the High moves in to start next week we could be chasing rather large amounts of cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK for a while.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a somewhat different picture as we move deeper into next week. The High moves in across the UK as with the other outputs but then declines it away SE through next week to bring Low pressure down into the NW by midweek and all other areas by next weekend with rain at times in blustery Westerly winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar theme in as much as High pressure is shown to move across the UK late in the weekend with less cool and fine weather for all as a result. Then as this pulls away East next week something of a ridge is maintained across many parts from the East. However a weakening trough is shown to stagger across the UK towards midweek with a little rain in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. The High is then shown to migrate to the NE which opens the door to atlantic troughs to make some progress into the Uk from the West later next week. By the end of the run we look back in a familiar pattern of High to the East and SE and Low to the Northwest with rain at times a risk for all but chiefly across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows that the High centre transfers to the East by Day 10 and with the Azores High in position a weak trough is at risk of affecting the UK again by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their theme of moving High pressure across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter the waters muddy with variable evolutions towards slightly less settled weather indicated.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM tieing with UKMO at 96.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.6 pts followed by ECM at 86.0 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.4 pts over GFS's 53.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.9 pts to 35.0 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The models are rock solid this morning in bringing High pressure East across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week, displacing the cool Northerly breezes that have afflicted us this week with something warmer and dry with sunny spells but with chilly nights under clear Autumn skies. It's the 'thereafter' which is less clear but there does seem to be some coming together that the High looks likely to edge away east of the UK by the middle of next week. It's the speed of the decline of pressure that is unclear with some output maintaining largely High pressure close to the East, NE or SE and holding rain bearing Atlantic fronts away. GEM though shows a much more stark dip into unsettled and Autumnal weather for all by the end of next week and most other output that looks out to that point indicate something of a trough edging across the UK at some point with at least a little rain. My own train of though think that ECM might have the best handle on things this morning as in my opinion I think High pressure will move away to the NE or East and allow Atlantic fronts into more NW areas while the South and East stay largely dry and fine and relatively warmer. I notice this morning that there is an ex tropical storm in the Atlantic mix in about a weeks time and the positioning of this will have to be watched as while not directly affecting the UK the unpredictability of it's movements in the Western Atlantic could have knock on effects on synoptics for our little part of the World come the time. Nevertheless, nothing too bad on the horizon this morning and in fact some very pleasant early Autumn weather looks likely for many areas for several days as the transit of the High across the UK occurs.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 4th 2015

After how the GFS perform very poorly during the summer with HP always strong feature from mid range onward now showing raging zonality pattern when few days ago was showing HP all the way.  Will this come off or zonal pattern will be downgraded it as it come near as they kept downgrading the HP prediction before.

If early Autumnal weather do come off I do not expect anything else in winter just same temperatures as we having now but a few degrees down only.   Going for 1992-1993 winter I expect as Autumn arrived early last month like August 1992 and never stop until Spring 1993 so this year going the same path.  My brother's in-law in Chicago heard news they are expecting a harsh winter again so rightly correct after a good hot summer there.

Book your holidays abroad to see snow folks!

This summer was cooler than average in Chicago - and winter forecasts are currently going for above average.

So.. confused again. 

Based on a cool august, some media reports in Chicago that the winter will be harsh over there, and your writing winter off over here on September 3rd 😂😂