Personally I'm still expecting the jet to forecast up for November... In-line with Terry's forecast for November of course! 

Don't tell me the jet stream is going to put us all out of the forecasting business! 

Not that 'up' is the most insightful of forecasts anyway 

Curiously enough, the longer range models have in general been keen on a wild November for some time now, yet trawling through the analogue years has come up with no clear signal for the month. It all seems to hang on a particular progression of the MJO and global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM). I can imagine the chaos if the MJO misbehaves (which would change the GLAAM outlook as well).

Good point James.

If the MJO loses it's mojo, and the GLAAM stops rocking, we'll be claiming PPI on the OPI as the NAO goes AWOL leaving just the AO and SST to rescue our anomaly.

And that wouldn't be very nice at all.

😉

FFS 😂

Throw MJO, GLAAM and the rest in the bin - the only long range forecaster of any merit, is the Siberian swan:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11926752/Britain-faces-longest-winter-in-50-years-after-earliest-ever-arrival-of-Siberian-swan.html

More emphasis this morning on showery conditions in the south thanks to the cold pool and the weak trough over continental Europe. The north remains predominantly dry throughout. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY OCT 13TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just over 8000ft across the far SW while nearer to 5000ft the further North and East one goes across the UK. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only very small chances of rain at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining positioned well to the NW of the UK for a considerable while yet before a slow trend to bring it further South later in the period when it becomes sharply undulating between 50-55 deg North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather continuing to be influenced by High pressure to the North and then NW with a chilly NE flow across the South and East of the UK in association with Low pressure across Southern Europe. Some showers are possible across the South-east. Then later in the period the High slips further South cutting off the chilly NE flow but opening the door to the NW for a surge of more unsettled and windy weather briefly with an equally chill North or NW flow for a time, especially over the North and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost identical to the operational today ending the period back where we started with a ridge across the North of the UK with a cold NE flow across Southernmost Britain following a short period of windy and cold North or NW winds for all with showers, wintry on hills in the North.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 65/35 split in favour of something a little more unsettled likely by Day 14 with Low pressure to the North extending influence down across all areas with some wind and rain in a Westerly flow. there is still 35% of members that disagree with this outcome with fine weather from a ridge across the UK persisting.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows very little change in conditions synoptically in the coming week with High pressure remaining close to or over the North or NW while the cool NE or east flow persists across the South perhaps with the odd shower at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning still show High pressure in control through the rest of this week. however, the pattern is not straightforward with fronts biting away at the edges of the ridge delivering occasional cloud and rain or showers to the Northern, Southern and particularly SE fringes of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows High pressure across the North for another week at least while Southernmost Britain largely maintains a cool NE or East flow and with Low pressure persisting across Southern Europe enough influence from that could give the occasional shower in the extreme South at times. Towards the end of the run High pressure finally slips away to the East opening the door to fronts moving in from the West with some rain at times for many by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is largely quite similar only differing in as much that High pressure slowly slips South to lie across the heart of the UK in a weeks time cutting off the cool NE flow from the South and delivering countrywide fine and settled weather with frost and fog night and morning likely becoming an issue.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows very slow changes in the next week with the same pattern of quiet and settled weather for many with frost and fog patches night and morning in the North and rather more cloud and a chilly easterly breeze across the South at times with just a few showers. This run then shows High pressure sinking slowly South across the UK later next week with fine and quiet weather in the South with frost and fog patches more likely here while the North slowly becomes breezier and more changeable but milder with the risk of some rain late next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure having moved out into the North Sea but maintaining largely fine and settled weather across the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains little evidence to support anything other than fine weather under High pressure continuing across the UK for some considerable while again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.4 pts over GFS's 50.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.7 pts to 30.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is still sound support for few changes in the weather over the period of most of the forecast output this morning. A large blocking belt of High pressure from Eastern Europe remains positioned over the North of the UK. While there is a lot of fine weather for many due to this the far South remains afflicted by a cold and blustery NE flow in association with lower pressure over Southern Europe. This could give rise to a few showers here at times but help restrict the widespread mist, fog and frost that could be encountered here if winds were lighter. However, the North will see plenty of this as the synoptic pattern remains slow moving. It's not until later next week that signs of a slow move in the High is shown with the popular consensus being for it to drift slowly South across the UK which could bring the worst of any fog and frost issues further South as the cold NE flow finally decays at the same time as pressure falls over the North with an increasing threat of westerly breezes returning with occasional rain late in the period. It should also be mentioned that GFS seems attracted towards delivering a cold NW, North and then NE flow across the UK late in the run which could deliver some snowfall to Northern peaks and moors but all very speculative at such a range. So without any major shift towards a more unsettled and long lasting pattern shift within the next two weeks we can continue to enjoy largely pleasant weather given the time of year while those of us looking for day to day nuances have to keep focused on chasing areas of cloud or the odd shower and the extents of overnight mist, fogs and frosts rather than anything more disruptive to travel.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=312&mode=0&carte=0

For the worse chart of the day I have chosen the 312hrs chart from the GFS Control Run which shows a deep Scandinavian Low pulling very strong and cold NNW winds down over all areas with plenty of showers, wintry on all high ground of the North and an eventual shift back towards better weather but with overnight sharp frosts for many.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0

The best chart today goes to NAVGEM 1 week from today with High pressure shown locked over the heart of the UK which would deliver a continuation of fine weather for all but with probably much risk of overnight frost and fog patches.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Oct 14th 2015

and cold...I suspect a few spots in the SE could be looking at single figure max's Fri/Sat.

A few hints in the models of things gradually turning more unsettled as high pressure ebbs away southwards, albeit very much FI for now.

Rather more unsettled than looked likely for my neck of the woods over the next few days but not bad elsewhere. GFS ens are also showing a bit of a warm up in the medium term too which may help my CET guess, although the signal is less certain and prolonged further North.

All rather benign at the moment really - roll on the silly season and occasional bouts of wailing and teeth gnashing I say 

nothing exciting on the horizon HP with us for about 8-10 days so nothing really of a breakdown as yet at close range,

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY OCT 14TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 10000ft across Western Ireland while nearer to just under 5000ft across much of England. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only relatively small chances of significant rain more especially in the North and West later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow remaining positioned well to the NW of the UK for some while yet before moving gently South on it's West to East axis at the same time as strengthening next week. It then blows quite strongly across the UK and Northern Europe later in the period where it remains for the rest of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather influenced by High pressure to the North and NE for a while yet with a cool, and somewhat showery flow across the SE persisting for a time. Then through next week the High pressure to the North slips down across the UK and end up to the South, switching winds to a milder Westerly flow with a North/South split in the weather developing with rain at times in the North but with dry and fine conditions in gentler Westerly winds across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is almost identical to the operational in the short term though it makes rather less of the North/South divide in conditions from next week, maintaining a UK based High pressure zone across the UK for longer with the eventual removal of it towards Europe late in the run and setting up a mild Southerly flow across the UK with maybe some rain edging into the far West at the end of the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seem to endorse a 85/15 split in favour of Westerly winds flowing across the UK at the 14 day time point with rain at times across the UK especially in the North and West. Only 15% of members this morning show a continuation of a cooler anticyclonic pattern likely in association with High pressure to the NE at that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO

UKMO today shows very little change in conditions in the short term under a ridge over Scotland and a cool NE flow across the SE with a few showers at times. Then towards the start of next week the cool NE flow is cut off as the ridge slips South introducing less cold and cloudier Westerly winds across the far North by the early part of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning still show High pressure in control over the North of the UK close to Northern Scotland. In the South a cool NE flow and a complex array of troughs maintain rather cloudy skies at times with some showers and rather limited amounts of bright weather.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today also follows the general theme of shifting the axis of the ridge of High pressure currently over the far North to move further South over the next week to lie to the South of the UK by midweek switching winds to a milder cloudy Westerly then with some rain at times developing across the North by the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows High pressure less inclined to move South next week and although the cool NE flow in the SE may become a thing of the past next week most of the UK will lie under a belt of High pressure with sunshine and fine weather persisting with frost and fog night and morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning follows the main theme of the morning being the High pressure belt gradually moving South to lie to the South of the UK by later next week. This means many more days of this cool and anticyclonic weather with a NE flow and showers persisting for some while yet across the East and SE. Then as the High slips South next week the cool NE flow will be cut off and winds will eventually shift to a much milder Westerly with cloud and eventually some rain at times likely across the North later next week although it looks unlikely from today's charts that much of this will reach the South within the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure declining with the chance of more unsettled conditions edging into the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output is for somewhat milder conditions to develop later as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 97.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 85.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.1 pts over GFS's 50.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.0 pts to 29.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is a wind of change shown across the output this morning which does show a pattern shift later next week onward. In the meantime it's business as usual as High pressure to the NE and North maintains a ridge across the North and West of the UK with a cool and somewhat showery NE flow across the SE but fine and bright weather elsewhere with mist, fog and frost patches at night. Then as we move into next week the NE flow over the South dissipates as the High pressure ridge over the North slips South. This will probably mean the worst of the fog and any frost problems will transfer to the South for a time with the North becoming milder and cloudier as a Westerly flow develops. Looking further ahead still and it appears the theme is for Westerly winds to become established across the UK meaning milder weather but the price to pay being rain at times developing with time, mostly across the North and West with only a little in the South as High pressure never looks far away from here. From my own perspective I feel that despite quite a lot of cross model support for High pressure to shift South and bring back milder Westerly winds caution should be observed at such a range as High pressure can become quite stubborn to shift now we're entering more Autumnal weather patterns and I think models may shift back towards UK based High pressure rather longer than currently shown. What is a feature of this morning's output again is the lack of anything unpleasant featured for any part of the UK over the next few weeks as our benign and quiet Autumn of 2015 thus far continues.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

For the worse chart of the day I have chosen one which isn't particularly bad which just reflects how benign this Autumn is synoptically. In this chart Low pressure to the NW would bring wind and rain for many but not that much ion the South in an overall relatively mild pattern.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

The best chart today goes to UKMO at day 5 as it shows an extensive ridge lying NE across the UK maintaining fine and settled weather for all at that time point with just the twin perils of frost and fog night and morning the only weather issues nationwide.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 15th 2015

Thanks Martin.

Indeed, there appears to be the seeds of zonality being sown towards the end of the month. The signal for a stormy and unsettled November has been strong. Verification will be a real feather in their caps.

Indeed, however believe it when I see it - on Gavin P's excellent JMA / CFS Friday I remember a few weeks back CFS was going for a blocked October with perhaps signs of breaking down towards the end, however it had the HP in the wrong orientation but the general theme has been right so far. JMA had to do a big flip as it was going for an unsettled October.  

To be fair given our default climate in the autumn/ winter it is unsettled, so if you guess it enough times  you will be right at some point (!), but LRF's even for a month ahead are proving reasonably unreliable at the moment most of the time. Whether that's due to the cold pool to our west or the El Nino, hard to take any LRF seriously at the moment and would not be surprised at all if pressure remains high around the UK and this is another blip of unsettled weather.  More runs needed as always to see whether this is the start of a breakdown for an extended period , or just an unsettled week on the way before HP resumes once again.  

GFS interesting right at the end in FI (on the 0z) as hints of a warm southerly setting up for the end of October:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

A plausible chart so needs watching to see if the theme is repeated.

Just a real pity that we didn't have more of the current HP dominated set-up 3 months ago, isn't it? The UK in general terms would have had a much better summer than the one that transpired.

Some tentative signs of more unsettled weather as we move into the last third of this month, as heights are predicted to rise again over the arctic.

Maybe some early season cold-shots to throw into the mix

Looking forward to the first of your snowy photos Mike.

Ah, like the Bewick swans is this the earliest recorded sighting of the Greater Pompey Driftbeast? 😎

Now.... that chart is right up my street

An interesting chart that. It would produce calm, settled weather in the UK, but it brings eastern promise. What w ewant at this stage of the season, is a build up of snow and cold in Nordic and eastern fringes of Europe - down the line, that would encourage high level blocking, plus the enticement of eastern promise.

its a shame that chart is not with in a reliable time frame, and what else comes with our weather are RED HERRINGS,

Does that actually happen? I don't think it matters much how much or how wide an area snow lies over the continent. A simple westerly push from the Atlantic will scarper severe cold and snow from Europe at a whim most of the time.