If a dome of cold air builds up over the continent, it can be a bugger to shift. Plus there is feedback from thick lying snow which contributes to blocking and inversion.

Yes it's the cold pool spilling out of the eastern seaboard that drives our weather, not any cold pool that has the audacity to spill west of the Urals which can't seem to hold a candle to the resultant vigorous zonal jetstream.

A settled outlook again this morning, apart from around the periphery of the high pressure. Here in Kent the cloudy and showery picture is likely to persist for some considerable days yet. 

There appears to be growing confidence for a warmish southerly feed circa 192-240 hours as the high pressure retreats into Europe. It would be a welcome parting gift 'if' the atlantic is to return thereafter.

GEM..is keen to bring up a relatively warm southerly and offers something potentially settled in its longer term outlook as the Mid Atlantic High looks set to give another spell of settled weather with the aid of a cut off low over Spain propping it up. 

It's been a pleasant October. 

An unsettled and rather chilly end though Steve

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY OCT 15TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain with troughs remaining close to SE England.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 8000ft across Scotland and Ireland while nearer to just under 5000ft across much of England and Wales. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night and only relatively small chances of significant rain more especially in the North and West later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow currently a long way to the NW of the UK where it remains for some while yet before strengthening early next week and beginning to sink further South across the UK later as Low pressure from the North of the UK slips further South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure to the Northeast with a cool NE flow across the SE. This flow is cut off over the weekend as the High pressure zone slips further South across Britain and away to the South. This opens the door to milder Atlantic Westerly winds and an increasing risk of rain at times. Then through the second week cyclonic and often cold weather prevails with spells of wind, rain and showers and cold enough for snow at times over Northern high ground.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is similar to the operational for the first week but through the second week a pronounced cold Northerly affects the UK for a day or two with rain followed by showers, wintry in the North. then pressure quickkly rises and a frosty cold but dry period looks likely for a time before milder SW winds strengthen and bring rain back rain into the North and West towards the end of the second week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days seems to have unanimously shifted their output towards a unsettled period of weather by 14 days with Low pressure to the NW affecting the UK with rain at times in milder SW winds. There are varying degrees of extent of this unsettled weather with 5% of members going for a major storm system up to the NW at Day 14 with severe gales and heavy rain in places.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows the belt of High pressure across the North slipping South and removing the cold NE flow across the South over the weekend but increasing a milder Westerly flow across the North. Many areas will remain quite dry with the influence of mist, fog and frost by night transferring to the South by the start of next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure remaining in control over the UK with the weak fronts affecting the SE decaying and moving away along with the cool NE flow by the beginning of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today reflects High pressure remaining in control across the UK for the next 10 days but with some fundamental differences developing. The cool NE flow across the South will dissipate after this weekend as the High pressure belt shifts to Southern Britain while the North and most places in general see rather milder conditions take hold by day, only by day in the South but by night too in the North, all due to Westerly winds and rain bearing fronts affecting the North later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure remaining under control across the UK throughout its 8 day period with the centre shifting towards a point close to Southern England early next week but re-establishing nationwide again by next weekend. Largely fine and dry weather looks likely with variable and often large amounts of cloud, a little rain in the North for a time next week and then areas of mist, fog and frost possible in rather cool conditions later in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure changing it's position over the coming 5 days or so shifting the emphasis of the best weather away from Scotland to Southern Britain and importantly removing the persistent NE flow of late away from the SE. Milder and cloudier Westerly winds look like developing over Scotland with a little rain which does show some signs of sprading to other areas too late next week before a cold Northerly flow looks the precursor to renewed and cold High pressure moving back in again from the West soon after the term of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure declining away to the East with some troughing developing across the UK in winds from a Westerly source.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop later next week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.6 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 85.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.3 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 30.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Today's output continues to support signs of change this morning though as I hinted at yesterday it may not be for long and not mean much in the way of rain for some. What we have seen of late is a stalled situation of High pressure to the North and NE of the UK extending a ridge back West over Northern Britain who have seen days now of splendid Autumn weather if with some cold and frosty nights. In the South and SE things have been a little more marginal with cloud and even a few showers at times in a persistent and cool NE wind. Fortunes will switch round next week with the South seeing the best of what should be plenty more fine and settled weather with milder days but still with the risk of mist and fog and a touch of frost at night. The North on the other hand will become breezy and milder generally with a lot of cloud and some occasional rain as fronts increasingly make progress across these areas. Then as we look further out GFS seems to want to set up a more mobile pattern with a couple of cold Northerly incursions, something that is also supported by ECM late in it's run this morning. My feelings are that although I think milder, windier and changeable weather is almost guaranteed to reach the North next week as the Jet Stream strengthens and moves South other areas of England and Wales probably won't see much in the way of rain before pressure rebuilds from the Atlantic later, possibly right across all of the UK with cold and frosty weather returning for many. This is the way I see it but it maybe of course that the Jet Stream's predicted extra strength will keep a much more mobile and possibly milder scenario across the UK such as the GFS Clusters are biased towards today in association with a possible intense Low pressure up to the NW. We will see how things develop over the coming days.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif

For the worse chart of the day I have chosen GFS at 276hrs which illustrates our current High pressure long gone with Low pressure across the UK with wind, rain and quite chilly weather across all of the UK.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.gif

The best chart today goes to GFS too but at 114hrs out which shows the current High pressure belt well in control across the UK with what should be almost universal fine and dry weather with some mist, fog and frost chances by night but bright, fine and potentially sunny days.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Oct 16th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY OCT 16TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains extended across Scotland from the East with a cold NE flow across the South of Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 8000ft across the West with values closer to 5000ft towards parts of the East. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining mostly fine and settled with frost and fog patches at night but perhaps a trend to a gradual change to more unsettled conditions from the NW later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split GFS Jet Stream at the moment with the main arm up to the NW slowly becomes more dominant next week as it eases back South towards the North of the UK. For the majority of the run thereafter the flow remains variable in both location and strength with a trendd though to still lie towards the North of the UK rather than further South.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure still to the North with a cool NE breeze blowing across the South for a few more days coupled with a lot of cloud and a few showers. Then after the weekend the High pressure slips South towards the South of the UK with less cool feeling weather in little or no wind and fine if still rather cloudy weather with some mist, fog and frost patxhes possible at night next week. The North looks like becoming breezier and milder with some rain as troughs cross over from the West. Then through the second week High pressure which is never far from the South moves away to the East with a SSW flow developing for all with a greater chance of rain at least for a time as troughs edge East over most parts in generally milder conditions for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational in general theme this morning with the relaxation of the NE flow across the South as High pressure migrates down towards Southern England early next week with more unstable but milder Westerly winds across the far North. Then through the second week High pressure slips away to the East and as with the operational Low pressure becomes dominant to the West with mild and moist SSW winds developing for many with rain at times, quite heavy across the North and West but much less if any towards the East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days still unanimously support Low pressure becoming resident up to the NW of the UK by the end of the second week with varying degrees between members about how much influence across the UK the resultant SW flow affects us with the North and West seeing the main share of rain and wind whereas a lot of members still show a ridge of High pressure close enough to the South and East to ward off much in the way of wind and rain.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today continues to show High pressure gradually relocating to a point to the South or SW of the UK early next week and persisting thereafter. Troughs crossing the North by midweek introduces some rain here with a little rain for the South too shown by Thursday as a weakening cold front cross SE over England and Wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure remaining in control over the UK with the focus on rather milder conditions gradually feeding in across the UK as the High pressure slips South and cuts off the chilly NE flow across the South.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure slipping down to the South of the UK early next week bringing less cool feeling weather in the South as the cool NE breeze subsides. In the North some cloud and rain but milder conditions on a Westerly breeze looks likely before High pressure is shown to build back across all areas for a time with frost and fog issues night and morning. Then towards the end of the run as High pressure migrates to Scandinavia and sets up falling pressure across the UK on a SE breeze with rain on Atlantic fronts moving NE across the UK by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure remaining under control across the UK throughout its 8 day period with the centre shifting towards a point close to Southern England early next week but re-establishing nationwide again by next weekend. Largely fine and dry weather looks likely with variable and often large amounts of cloud, a little rain in the North for a time next week and then areas of mist, fog and frost possible in rather cool conditions later in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure changing it's position over the coming 5 days or so shifting the emphasis of the best weather away from Scotland to Southern Britain and importantly removing the persistent NE flow of late away from the SE. Milder and cloudier Westerly winds look like developing over Scotland with a little rain for a while while the South stays largely fine and bright and less cool than recently. Then towards the end of the run signs of High pressure collapsing away to the SE allows the threat of some rain for all as weak troughs move in from the West though no large scale breakdown is shown even by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a Westerly breeze across the UK with no doubt some troughs in the flow bringing rain at times with the emphasis of this mostly falling on the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop later next week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later and possibly allows some ingress of more unsettled weather towards the North and West.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.5 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.6 pts to 31.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Not much change in the grand scheme of things within the model runs this morning with the emphasis remaining largely based around High pressure which changes it's position early next week to a point close to Southern England which will have the biggest impact to the South of the UK which will finally lose the cool NE breeze which has afflicted these areas for much of this week to allow conditions to fel much more pleasant by dy at least. In the North changes will also be quite marked as gone will be the fine and largely sunny conditions with cold nights in exchange for milder and cloudier weather with some rain at times as troughs move across from the West at times. Then the models become much less clear on whether High pressure builds back across the UK with fine and settled Autumnal weather for all again or whether Low pressure is allowed to make bigger inroads into the UK from the West in response to a collapse of High pressure to the East. The favourite option would have to be that the Atlantic does win back some ground on recent times but I feel the progress is going to be slow and not particularly full hearted with the West and North probably seeing the most rain while the South and East still look like seeing very little over the next few weeks which if verifies would make October 2015 an almost record breakingly dry month. The one factor which I haven't mentioned is that it looks like things will become rather milder for all as winds turn Westerly next week and maybe Southerly later dragging milder air up from warmer latitudes across all of Britain. So in a nutshell nothing alarmist to report again this morning with the emphasis persisting to be one of dry and benign conditions outweighing any risk of anything particularly wet and windy for anywhere.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=276&mode=0&carte=0

For the worse chart of the day I have chosen a chart from the GFS Control Run at 276hrs which illustrates a deep Low out in the Atlantic sucking up mild and moist winds from the South across the UK with no doubt some heavy rain on troughs concentrated towards the North and West in particular.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

The best chart today goes to NAVGEM at 168hrs which shows High pressure well ensconced across the UK still one week from now with fine and settled weather for all delivering some mist, fog and frost problems at night and in the morning.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Oct 18th 2015

The weather must be boring - not a post on the model thread in 12 hours - roll on the model chasing in a couple of months 🙂 (no pun intended)

It's Friday and someone has been in the pub since mid-afternoon... GFS 18z +222hrs Issued on 16/10/2015

The end of the world is nigh.

Looks like a more westerly themed weather next week - so sayeth the GFS 12Z - although HP to the SW does enough to deflect the worst of the storms towards Iceland. The PV really is starting to step up a gear around Greenland.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, look at the rain forecast in the Philippines from the slow-moving typhoon! 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=2&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Looking at the interesting post re the "swans", the 3 early years of arrival 1973,80,92 all had very clear N/NE flows around or just after mid October. It may be no more than just hitching a ride on a convenient wind pattern! That said, interestingly the charts for late Oct '62 show s similar pattern to forecast charts for the next week or so. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 18TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge remains slow moving across the UK for the next day or so before declining slowly South through next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just around 6000ft to 8000ft across the UK. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to expand across mainland Russia and the States which extends to 55 deg North in western Russia.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions at times from the NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The split GFS Jet Stream at the moment with the main arm over the Atlantic gradually becomes pushed East across the UK later this week. However, the flow continues to be variable in strength and geared in position to remain to the NW of the UK over all and less strong than is usual for this stage on Autumn.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today has a theme of weather governed by various areas of High pressure close to the UK over the entire run this morning. The current fine period could give way briefly this week to stronger Atlantic westerlies and some rain for a time before High pressure looks likely to build back over the UK by next weekend with some mist and overnight fog and frost. A SE flow then develops with Low pressure to the SW and High to the NE. Most places look like staying dry away from the far SW where a little rain is possible. Then towards the end of the rain winds veer to a light to moderate and mild South or SW flow with a lot of dry weather still this time from High pressure to the South with any rain returning to more NW areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is only similar in as much as High pressure remains close by for much of the two week period but in this run more to the South of the UK keeping rain bearing wind and rain systems most likely affecting the North rather than the South which could stay largely dry after a brief spell of rain midweek. Most areas look like becoming rather milder than currently with a milder SW or west source of wind until the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today supports the South and East looking best for the weather in two weeks time with mild SW winds and a lot of dry weather in the South and East whereas more Northern and Western areas look most likely to see rain at times from Atlantic rain bearing systems moving NE at times in generally rather mild conditions.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a typical North/South divide in the weather setting up through this week with winds settling Westerly and strong at times in the North with some rain at times too whereas in the South apart from the risk of a little rain soon after midweek and perhaps again next weekend a lot of dry and much milder weather overall looks likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure slipping South to a point near Northern France later this week with weakening troughs moving SE across the UK at times with a little rain and accompanied by milder SW winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today also follows the theme of the rest of South is best as High pressure generally stays close by to the South and East of the UK bathing the UK in a mostly Westerly flow, sometimes strong in the North but lighter in the South in overall rather milder than of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows winds switching to a milder West or SW flow with some rain briefly midweek before a North/South split develops with rain then confined mostly to the North whereas the South maintains a lot of dry and benign weather close to High pressure to the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure moving South of the UK and setting up milder Westerly winds this week. It also shows a slow decline in conditions towards some rain at times, especially soon after midweek, more especially in the North with a sceptical trek into more widespread cyclonic conditions in a weeks time before a pressure build over the UK at the end of the 10 day period with a return to overnight frosts and fogs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure up to the NW with a Westerly breeze across the UK with no doubt some troughs in the flow bringing rain at times with the emphasis of this mostly falling on the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output continues to support somewhat milder conditions to develop this week as High pressure slips to the South of the UK later and possibly allows some ingress of more unsettled weather towards the North and West in particular.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.6 pts over GFS's 50.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.3 pts to 32.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Changes are afoot in the weather pattern across the UK almost from immediately as the long lasting cool NE flow across the SE is far less pronounced now and will dissolve away entirely over the next day or so. In it's place winds will slowly freshen from the West this week bringing much milder air and also some rain. This will be most pronounced across the North but all areas may see some around the midweek period before High pressure never far away from the South builds back across some if not all areas again next weekend. Thereafter the main theme of conditions look like reverting to a familiar North/South split in the weather across the UK with the most unsettled conditions looking likely across the North but even here some dry and fine spells look possible. The South on the other hand look like maintaining a lot of dry and benign weather conditions which could mean the month could end up remarkably dry for many nationwide. While at times through the period occasional gales are possible in exposed Northern and Western areas the South looks likely to avoid such a risk and with winds everywhere maintaining a West or South of West source temperatures will recover strongly both by day and particularly by night with little risk of frost and significant fogs raising the months CET to more respectable values than might otherwise of occurred had we maintained winds away from a Westerly source. So all in all still a very subdued drift through Autumn for many and while some cloud, wind and rain look inevitable at some point for most given that we are approaching the end of October things could be a whole lot worse with still a lot of very acceptable weather conditions for much of the time over the next few weeks especially but not exclusively over the South and SE.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

For the worse chart of the day I have chosen a chart from the ECM Run at day 8 which shows Low pressure across the UK with rain and strong winds for many though it has to be said that it commands little support from other output.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

The best chart today goes to the same model at just two days later than the worst chart period and shows High pressure re-establishing across the UK blocking all attacks from the Atlantic once more and delivering fine and dry weather with overnight mist, fog and maybe frost too.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 19th 2015

thanks gibby for the output, be glad when this HP breaks into something more worth while watching, I for one am getting bored with this HP set-up.

Thank you Martin for the output.  Need some Telescope weather for sky watching.

Thank you Martin

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY OCT 19TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A High pressure ridge is moving South over the UK with a freshening Westerly flow developing over the North later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level ranging from just under 5000ft across the North and just above 8000ft over the South. The snow cover above 60 deg North continues to seasonably expand but the progress looks largely halted this week.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still a lot of dry and quiet conditions but with interventions to more unsettled conditions from the NW increasing with time.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The recent split in the Jet Stream at the moment will become overpowered soon by a West to East moving flow across the North of the UK later this week and beyond. Towards the end of the period it looks as though the flow will retreat away back well to the NW of the UK again later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely anticyclonic in regard to Southern Britain though the North does appear to have a spell of windy and very changeable weather for a time later this week as deep Low pressure crosses East just to the North. On the other hand High pressure is shown never to leave the South by much with only the briefest of spells of rain soon after midweek. High pressure then builds back over all of Britain next week with frost and fog issues no doubt before the end of the run shows a large blocking High across Scandinavia with a chilly SE feed across Britain and rain bearing fronts from the Atlantic largely held at bay well to the West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The general theme of the Control Run is largely simmilar to the Operational with the added ingredient of a larger swipe across all of Britain of a deep Low pressure crossing and affecting most of the UK towards next weekend with rain and strong winds for all for a time. Then through the second week this run too supports High pressure building back across Britain and then away to the East and NE setting up a similar SE flow to that of the Operational later next week

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days today strongly supports a flow from off the Atlantic across the whole of the UK in 14 days time. There is varying degrees of effect this may have on the South closer to higher pressure there but 15% of ouput goes for a deep Low to the NW and rain and gales for all. Conversely 15% show High pressure close to Northern Scotland with fine and dry conditions for all should that evolve.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a change in weather type this week with a gradual shift to a Westerly flow with a couple of rain bearing fronts crossing East or SE across most parts, one soon after midweek and another next weekend when a for substantial change looks likely countrywide as Low pressure moves in closer to the North, close enough to bring wind and rain at times to most in time for the new week next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning also shows High pressure declining and moving away to the South this week with several troughs in the Westerly flow delivering some rain at times, chiefly over the North but to the South too at times especially by next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today pulls out all the stops on the rad to a big Autumn storm to start next week. Before this happens it shows a slow decline into windier and more changeable conditions especially in the North with occasional rain and showers in a blustery wind as High pressure declines away to the South and Low pressure areas cross East to the North of Scotland. Then next week a rapidly deepening and vigorous depression is shown to move slowly ESE across the North of the UK with a period of severe gale or even storm force winds across many parts with heavy rain and then showers, becoming wintry in the North as we move through the early days of next week culminating in a chilly and raw Northerly with further showers especially in the East midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is not available this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning looks a lot like UKMO this morning which if evolves as shown would mean some rain for all over the next 7 days as Low pressure to the North of the UK and attendant troughs move down across the UK with most of the rain but not all over the North especially at first in the period. Then following an active cold front next weekend with rain for all pressure builds strongly from the NW across the UK in cold air setting up a spell of cold and frosty weather with fog patches possibly freezing in places slow to clear. Then towards the end of the run and later next week pressure looks like ridging towards Scandinavia and following a cold plunge of air over Europe looks like this could be driven West across the UK on a strengthening Easterly flow late next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows slack Low pressure across the UK with High pressure still well to the SW and more significantly over Russia with any amount of different options possible across the UK at that time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from this morning's output supports somewhat less benign weather than has been the case of late as High pressure relinquishes some grip and opens the door possibly to any direction next week. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leading UKMO at 99.6 pts to 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.4 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 87.5 pts then GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 56.8 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.7 pts to 32.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Changes continue to be shown across the models in relation to what pressure pattern we had set up last week. What this means in overall terms of weather for the UK depends on where you live with the North probably seeing the biggest change as the quiet anticyclonic conditions of last week giving way to a stronger Westerly flow with rain at times as fronts pass through. In the South High pressure also releases some grip but takes rather longer to give way to the South far enough to give rise to much in the way of rain down here but it should feel milder here as the cool NE flow backs Westerly this week. However, it's next week which looks quite interesting as there seems growing signals for High pressure to build back across the UK early in the week. The precursor to this could be a deep and in the case of GEM a vigorous Low moving SE over the UK or Europe and giving rise to rain and strong winds or in the case of GEM severe gales and some disruption to travel. Whichever, path this system takes it appears to be dragging a lot of cold air down over the UK behind it and with the rising pressure and subsequent High pressure that follows could result in a very chilly and frosty period with frosts and freezing fog issues by night and possibly by day too for a few. What's more interesting is that ECM today shows the High then ridging towards Scandinavia later next week and with a very cold pool shown over Europe aat that time there is every indication from the Day 10 chart that this could be swept West across Britain in a very chilly Easterly. This signal for High pressure to build back towards Scandinavia later next week is also shared by GFS in their outputs which though less cold than ECM would block attacks from the Atlantic again and add to the dry theme of the Autumn once more. Interesting times are shown in the models this morning and if anyone thinks that we're staring down the barrel of a sustained mild, windy and wet period after the demise of our current High pressure should think again.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1801.gif

Not a hard choice for the worst chart of the day today as the 7 day+ chart from GEM indicates a powerful and vigorous depression swinging across the UK with gale or severe gale force winds and heavy rain and possible disruption developing for many early next week.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

The best chart today goes to ECM at day 10 which shows the return of a blocking High across the UK ridging towards Scandinavia and while cold this would certainly block any rain bearing systems from off the Atlantic for a while again.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Oct 20th 2015

Thank you Martin. Like the cold pool, chilly, frosty, freezing Fog  for  the end of the month...

Looks like turning increasingly changeable late this week with some rain at times.

Uncertainty in fi though.

Yep, slowly but surely we seem to have a breakdown creeping up on us?