Agreed.

GFS wants to go for a typical autumn set up in the longer term this morning - suggestion of wind and rain there for November 1st.

My God the models are all over the place, last night ECM had a strong zonal flow while GFS developed a huge Euro high at +216 but this morning it's the other way round!

Useless

Andy

Every time the atlantic tries to ramp up High pressure inflates over Scandinavia creating an atlantic stand off. I wonder if this pattern will continue to establish as we move into winter. Interesting times ahead. 

Bad news for the GP this weekend.

Hi to all Model Outputters.

Well it does look like some Low Pressure Polar Vortex Splitted to two areas is expected after this Sunday's High Pressure gives way from the UK.

NNW Russia NE Europe and whole of Central North Atlantic Large Cold Pool with Polar Major Low Vortex in charge with bands of Heavy rain and Short waves trofs and mild/cold fronts at times for the aforementioned areas that does affect Britain as well.

Central Europe, SW of North Atlantic and this extend across East and SE and West Greenland - Major Slow Moving N Hem and Temperate MLB Highs also in place, where moist cool and mild airmass and clear skies- dry conditions are expected with cloudy weather on the SE flows and on the NW'esterly on the NE parts of them.

The Setup is of near average Autumn weather with normal amounts of rain, no flood problems and it will from Monday 26th to Friday 30th be not particularly cold at all for the UK.

Some Snow over Svalbard and NE Norway plus Finland and the West Russian side more particularly the NNW Russia area, very cold NNW winds during that period for them, includes Moscow.

😀💦🌧💨🌦.

Is he ill ?

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek9.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek10.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek11.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek12.gif

Not many would complain if this is how it pans out

JFF of course

I wouldn't complain, that's for sure.

Yes, The ECM falls in with the GFS for 1st Nov.  Will they both now perform a volte face?

I bloody hope not! The above chart looks good to me.

Andy

Depends on the set-up that brings those temps. Dry & cold, whilst much better than wet & mild, doesn't really get my juices flowing.

Coldest temperatures in the middle of the country would suggest a stagnant mid winter anticyclonic set up.  Dry and Cold beats wet and mild IMO. 

Looking at Scandi and Europe it looks like something from the East , I understand why you'd say that , it was of course an IMBY favoured post as we do very well in that set up

Another fairly nondescript set of runs this morning imo.

Takes a while but eventually LP sinks the block, running over the top of Scandi and sinking the colder air well South and East.

Here in the UK relatively mild, wet at times and probably drier the further south (and east) you go. Frosts probably non-existent.

ECM seems fairly keen in FI on setting up a bit of a Euro High, which would be even more boring down here although would certainly keep the heating bills down (or at zero for me as I'm just using the woodburner atm ).

Or that could be bitter east/northeast winds where its nearly always a degree or two higher near the coasts than inland areas.

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek9.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek10.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek11.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek12.gif

Not for the first time CFS hints at a colder start to the NY

J F F of course

While the trick is not to take the 240 hrs medium range outputs at face value, I have never seen such unanimous agreement at that time frame in the latest batch of runs. In this case, they are all mostly showing high pressure to be the dominant force at around the 5th Nov, that would suggest odds on favourite for Guy Fawkes night to turn out dry, mild and settled - at least for this end of the country.

Like I said, it is just something I've noticed this morning. Doubtless it'll all look different by the end of today.