Last night's 12z ECM control run continues the theme of recent days - a northerly plunge at 192, then low pressure attempts to move in from the west. There are a less-cold couple of days, but then another low comes along and gets deflected SE'wards as pressure builds again to the west. Strong northerlies and NE'lies result, again drawing cold air over the UK.

It may not be a textbook cold spell, but one thing it's not is day after day of mild murky weather such as we're having now (in the south, at least!),

Another good building blocks run from the ECM this morning.

Maybe even a snow event for the SE at day 9

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

By day 10 we have GReenland , Scandinavia and Arctic highs not bad!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Yup, it's a fun one - starts with snow over Devon and Cornwall at 204, then by 210 most areas south of the M4 see snow falling.

It's all still looking good for a change away from this mild drek in a week's time. (And no, I'm not expecting widespread snowfall at this stage - a break from the past couple of weeks of near-constant mild and gloomy weather will be welcome enough!)

You would have nothing to post if we didnt chase that pot of gold

Not forgetting a deep Icelandic low and higher heights over Spain too .

As others have eluded there is an attempted pattern changer in the offing that hopefully may bring something more seasonal and somewhat brighter in the 7-10 day range. Ensembles are uncertain.

Looks like that Icelandic low would turn into a slider 

Temps returning closer to average.

If we all settled for mild zonality in December then this thread would be empty , apart from Jacko Sorry Jacko.

Posting charts 10-14 days out also gives a clue on verification as we get to day 0

On that I disagree. Anyone who knows anything at all about the UK's weather must know that a lot of the time, it is hard to be certain or anything even approaching it wrt what the weather will be like a handful of days ahead, let alone a few weeks in advance. In other parts of the world, forecasters can possibly make longer term predictions with more certainty, but with our highly variable climate that is very difficult indeed.

I love cold and snow and of course its exciting to see some cold members of ensembles.However unless cold members are in the large majority excitement is premature (Currently its 66:34 in favour of mild  on GEFS at 384h)

I do think it is possible to make calls for a  month  providing the call is not in any detail but is broad circulation type ie NAO. My call for December is overall NAO+.Reasons: very strong El Nino,opinion of successive METO 3 month forecasts and little sign of sustained cold in model output over the last month.Whether call is right or not is measurable by the daily and then monthly NAO actuals. The odd cold spell within the month does not make the NAO +call invalid.

Not buying into anything at T240 or beyond although you can see potential changes if you get clustering.

However, the GFS pack, as they have been for quite some time show a broad spread at that range and the ensemble mean is certainly not cold as a result.

As someone posted earlier, it looks like it may get less mild with time but I would expect that at some point anyway given the ongoing anomaly.

The content of some on these last few pages re bickering and sweeping statements about this that and the other is one reason why I no longer post my summary here and on the other side in Winter. Joining in would not be good for my mental health. After all it is only the weather and as far as I'm concerned there are far more important things in my life at this time of year so prefer to keep my thoughts contained within my website.

The 6z GFS is trickling out. I have to say that at 192 hours it looks remarkably similar to the ECM.

Indeed Michael. A temporary coldish high was in place on the 0z at this stage. Never has a pattern change been more welcomed by all ! 

I'm going to stop here but such a chart would be drawing in dry and cold continental air. A neutral NAO would be a novel experience too. 

One more from me I promise.

I don't think too many people would be disappointed to see a chart like this given the date. 

Aye - the whole run has been a pleasure to see roll out.  Plenty of interest in it.

Definitely an improvement on the 00z - long may it continue. As others have commented, the Polar vortex is being ripped apart - the variations in the output reflect the uncertainty that brings. It is not guaranteed that a disrupted vortex will bring cold to our shores, since we could end up on the wrong side of a meridional jet, but it increases the chances of getting some proper winter weather. At least there is hope now, instead of despair.

Out of the last 55 years a White Xmas has been reported 38 times

Snow lying on the ground has only been achieved 4 times in the 55 years

The whitest Xmas ( most snow lying on the ground ) was 2010 , 80% of the weather stations in the UK reported snow on the ground.

2004 was our snowiest xmas ( most weather stations reported snow falling )

Some interesting stats