theweatheroutlook

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bluejosh
06 December 2015 14:57:27

Are we setting up for another "Wintober"? I certainly hope not


 


 


[quote=Brian Gaze;740020]


We could see a pattern change although I remain doubtful. The real weather news is in the here and now. Flooding and storms in the north coupled to extraordinary warmth in the south. A couple of weeks until Xmas and these things are growing in my garden again. Incredible.



[/quote


 

Bugglesgate
06 December 2015 15:04:26


 


That big cluster looks like edible Coprinellus micaceus mushrooms.


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


 


Let's get Brian to  eat some  and if he doesn’t re-post we can assume you are wrong

Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
doctormog
06 December 2015 15:06:58


 


 


Let's get Brian to  eat some  and if he doesn’t re-post we can assume you are wrong


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


 


Or if he posts charts like this one it could have been of "magic" variety


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Solar Cycles
06 December 2015 15:34:53


 


 


Or if he posts charts like this one it could have been of "magic" variety



Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Looks like the latest OPI index.

SJV
06 December 2015 15:48:28


 


 


Or if he posts charts like this one it could have been of "magic" variety



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Another good example of when the mean is useless 

doctormog
06 December 2015 15:52:27


 


Another good example of when the mean is useless 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
06 December 2015 15:56:05


 


 


Or if he posts charts like this one it could have been of "magic" variety



Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yep, a very good guide that is!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
06 December 2015 16:22:57

under soil heating you secret mildeeee 


 



We could see a pattern change although I remain doubtful. The real weather news is in the here and now. Flooding and storms in the north coupled to extraordinary warmth in the south. A couple of weeks until Xmas and these things are growing in my garden again. Incredible.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Bertwhistle
06 December 2015 16:23:01


 


That big cluster looks like edible Coprinellus micaceus mushrooms.


Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Possibly; if so, edible before they start to blacken, like their cousin the shaggy ink cap.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Polar Low
06 December 2015 16:30:52
Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
06 December 2015 16:42:09
One sure signal before it gets colder is the appearance of Jacko4ever telling us that mild weather is on its way after a two day cold spell.
Kingston Upon Thames
JACKO4EVER
06 December 2015 16:51:53

One sure signal before it gets colder is the appearance of Jacko4ever telling us that mild weather is on its way after a two day cold spell.

Originally Posted by: Sasa 


yes don't worry, I'm here lurking in the backgroundlaughing

Polar Low
06 December 2015 16:51:57

Im sure Peter would say it would not not take much to get a cold uk outbreak from there its interesting that ecm plays those euro heights lower its usually gfs that plays that card.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 

Maunder Minimum
06 December 2015 16:57:36


Im sure Peter would say it would not not take much to get a cold uk outbreak from there its interesting that ecm plays those euro heights lower its usually gfs that plays that card.


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


What is heartening are the raised height anomalies in Nova Scotia, which is so often a depression spawning, zonal factory for the UK.


Mild in Canada can spell cold for the UK.

New world order coming.
moomin75
06 December 2015 17:01:52
Desperate 12z. Not much sign of anything remotely resembling cold weather in the foreseeable. Just more wet and windy and that spells bad news for much of the country.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
06 December 2015 17:02:28


 


What is heartening are the raised height anomalies in Nova Scotia, which is so often a depression spawning, zonal factory for the UK.


Mild in Canada can spell cold for the UK.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Agreed , used to watching numerous LP's shooting out from there

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


David M Porter
06 December 2015 17:08:29


 


What is heartening are the raised height anomalies in Nova Scotia, which is so often a depression spawning, zonal factory for the UK.


Mild in Canada can spell cold for the UK.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Kevin Bradshaw posted a chart in the winter prospects thread earlier showing some unusually high temps across north-eastern parts of the USA at the moment. Maybe if those conditions can hang on for a while longer there, it may actually come to our aid further down the line.


If I'm not mistaken, the same parts of the USA experienced some extremely cold weather both last winter and the one before; this likely had a hand in the zonal conditions we had for the first half of last winter and for the entire season the year before.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Maunder Minimum
06 December 2015 17:09:51

Desperate 12z. Not much sign of anything remotely resembling cold weather in the foreseeable. Just more wet and windy and that spells bad news for much of the country.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


What are you talking about Moomin? - the 12z is an improvement on the 06z and shows a pretty decent cool down compared to how things have been.


If the charts were showing a howling easterly, I guess you would find grounds to complain.

New world order coming.
David M Porter
06 December 2015 17:11:29

Desperate 12z. Not much sign of anything remotely resembling cold weather in the foreseeable. Just more wet and windy and that spells bad news for much of the country.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


GFS seems to be all over the place right now in terms of prospects further down the line, Kieren. Both of this morning's runs had more HP influence for at least some of the UK, whereas the GFS is a zonal fest to the end and gradually getting colder with time. Should make for interesting viewing though over the coming days.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
06 December 2015 17:33:27


 


What are you talking about Moomin? - the 12z is an improvement on the 06z and shows a pretty decent cool down compared to how things have been.


If the charts were showing a howling easterly, I guess you would find grounds to complain.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Pretty zonal and nothing to write home about MM. I accept however it's a marginal improvement on the 6z but looks like an awful lot of patience will be required this winter. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
06 December 2015 17:47:07


Op and Control fairly similar up to this point



Control is still keen on a brief Northerly

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
06 December 2015 17:49:10


Pretty zonal and nothing to write home about MM. I accept however it's a marginal improvement on the 6z but looks like an awful lot of patience will be required this winter. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Its actually much better , I agree ( as I posted earlier ) the 6z had nothing , I think you are not wrong when you say patience is needed......possibly Feb , and by then most have given up.........

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


KevBrads1
06 December 2015 18:02:26

q


 


Kevin Bradshaw posted a chart in the winter prospects thread earlier showing some unusually high temps across north-eastern parts of the USA at the moment. Maybe if those conditions can hang on for a while longer there, it may actually come to our aid further down the line.


If I'm not mistaken, the same parts of the USA experienced some extremely cold weather both last winter and the one before; this likely had a hand in the zonal conditions we had for the first half of last winter and for the entire season the year before.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


It looks like staying very mild for whole of next week and weekend. New York could be in the high teens next weekend. 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
briggsy6
06 December 2015 18:15:27

I still remember Feb '86. A whole month with lying snow and at month's end strong winds leading to severe drifting. The ditches in the park near here (West London) were full to the top with drifted snow. Then as March began a change in wind direction and it was all over in the space of a day or two. I've never experienced another month to match that since, though Jan '87 had lower temps.

Location: Uxbridge
moomin75
06 December 2015 18:20:08


 


Its actually much better , I agree ( as I posted earlier ) the 6z had nothing , I think you are not wrong when you say patience is needed......possibly Feb , and by then most have given up.........


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Blimey Marcus. Saying Feb now? That is almost you throwing in the towel.  Feb would be good though as that's  when I get back.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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