Yes MM. Still nowhere near anything remotely interesting. Before we know it we'll be looking into January and beyond with not even a sniff of frost in the first winter month.

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A lot of the operational runs recently seem to be swinging between a continuation of the recent unsettled pattern and a change to something drier and possibly colder; I'm not sure how much consistency or otherwise there has been among the various ensemble and control runs from the models for later in December.

Personally, I would be more inclined to write off the rest of December at this time if virtually every op, control and ensemble run from each of the models were all showing atlantic zonality dominating the rest of this month and pressure remaining stubbornly high over central and southern Europe. It doesn't, to me anyway, seem as clear cut as that just now.

 

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New thread coming along in time for the ECM 12z run, closing this thread shortly.

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