And what about the other 20 perbs

i concur the others are all considerably colder!! Hopefully one step forward today as there does appear to be a slow trend towards more winter like conditions at last.

yeh, bbq Christmas turkey lol

Did you check the pressure charts for those two perbs? No good just looking at the 850hpa at this time of the year, they could be high uppers accompanied with a high pressure . 

Edit. I have now and certainly not so warm as you say. That said, the pressure charts are showing these as long fetch southerly winds wafting up from North Africa so would think they are extremely unreliable.

While next week certainly looks mild for virtually all of the UK, there does seem to be some consistency from the GFS and ECM op runs at the moment that it will turn at least a little colder during the week leading up to Christmas. I reckon that were what is shown at T+240 on the ECM 12z to verify, it would feel decidedly chilly in northern areas, and maybe some wintry precipitation to boot.

A downward trend towards Christmas as colder air over Greenland gets picked up in the depression track

Nothing wrong with that K

Whats good for the goose eh

A seasonal Xmas at least ,,,,if verified

Certainly looks as though there will be a lowering of temps,running up to Xmas

I've seen worse Christmas Day charts!

The first "silly season" chart of the year - member 20 of this morning's GEFS. Oh, if only this could come off!

(That's -19.2C at 850 over eastern Kent, 498dam 1000-500 thickness, -5C surface temperature!)

Obviously it's most unlikely to happen, but it does show that it's never, ever safe to write off a whole month in the first couple of weeks.

EDIT: And just to balance things, here's the mildest chart (at 850) from all the ensembles this morning:

Snow lake effect  if only or Dec heatwave

ECM Op showing some interest this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

The ECM 00z output is a bit of a surprise compared with previous runs and other models. Pattern change or just a little bit more chaos thrown into the mix?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Yes  ECM seem s at odds to the GFS zonality

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=300&code=4&mode=0&carte=0

Zonality seems to be the Xmas  day majority.If this ENS verified damaging winds I think.

ECM christmas party yesterday?

ECM ensembles - mild for a week, then a good deal of scatter.

Let's hope that a trend to something more wintry can develop from this. As Darren showed, there is plenty of scatter beyond day 7 and it will be nice to see how GFS plays out in subsequent runs through today.