Never thought I'd be so thrilled to see 8 or 9c

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH FOLKS. Whatever you think about my posts and my opinions,there is no excuse for this bullying. I am off for 6 weeks now so the rest of you can carry on the MODEL discussion in my absence, good luck finding your cold spells and your wintry dreams. For what it's worth, I think something will materialise before too long.

Happy Christmas and no hard feelings. 

xxxx

I don't post on here much these days for reasons two fold. 1. My work doesn't give me the time and 2. For reasons like the last page on here. All this constant sniping at poor Moomin is so counterproductive in a normally compelling read. Let's face it the guy has his reasons for stating what he thought at the beginning of the month and he has turned out to be right. Well done to him. It might not be what 90% of posters on here want the models to show but it's pointless slandering an individual for stating what he sees in the charts especially as it's turned out to be true of late. For my part I agree fully with him that it's going to be well into 2016 at least before any major change. The rise of pressure to the East pronged Post Christmas is as useless as a chocolate teapot if it's an Easterly your after as long as the Jet flow continues to be both strong and riding over the top of the High as it will just gently push it back SE.

P.S. I don't want to sound like a Moderator but I am really surprised the Mods have allowed this banter and sniping at individuals to go on. It's more like what happens on the other channel. I suggest everybody just chill out, it's only the weather and it's nearly Christmas.

I've just deleted a whole lot of nonsense from this thread involving Moomin and a number of other posters.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with a bit of light-hearted banter; that is one of the things that keeps this forum going. However some of that has been posted in here this evening is bordering on personal, and that isn't acceptable. I have had my own criticisms of some of Moomin's posts in this thread as many of you will know, but I have always gone out of my way to ensure it is of the constructive type and never in any way personal.

On topic from here on in please.

Will pressure build to the NE???

I'd settle for what the 18z is showing

This is the sort of evolution that looks feasible-ridge ,HP cell , scandi HP

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=288&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=0

Be interesting to see if there is any ENS support.

Lol, since I've been gone apparently the MO thread has become like UIA and I'm not the cause! I think the mild weather is getting to everyone, people need to chillax just a little! 

Anyway I'm going to bore everyone with my polar vortex stuff again. Still digging those 500hpa temperature charts. However on the 18Z I found this.

Not only has the polar vortex weakened but a bit has chipped off right next door to us! Well I'm sure thatl bring a couple of chilly days. 

Anyway the details arn't really important at 288hr anyway; the point is we are seeing a very consistent gradual weakening of the polar vortex on the GFS; its a trend that should make us optimistic (well it makes me optimistic anyway) about the start of January.

By 384hrs the polar vortex is heavily under attack.

Well it has a big gaping hole in it anyway. 

What do people think, is there anything too all this? Dr Cohen actually thinks the polar vortex is going to weaken too, although I'm sure her reasoning is more scientifically rigorous than mine.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Just to add, I know people are going to get vaguely excited by the 18Z chart since it shows something slightly more interesting in deep FI. However I want to enphasise there is a fundemental consistency here; this is not an outlier. It just so happens that the 18Z weakens the polar vortex more than previous runs and it just so happens that the biggest weakness is next door. However the underlying theme of a gradual weakness has been very consistent for the last couple of days. Personally I think that in low res people need to concentrate more on the 500 level, because details are simply unreliable at this timescale and the 500 level has far better verification stats. I'd also recommend having a look a little above the 500 level to see what is going on in the extreme upper trop and lower strat.

Its encouraging, if subtle.

Oh wow, more interest for you guys!

Just checked 10hpa. Yet another attack on the polar vortex.

I'm starting to really feel a disturbance in the force now for Early January. Hopefully it won't just be some waffle about bering highs that never comes to anything this time! Can anyone else sense something in the air?

Chance of a touch of ground frost on Christmas eve

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015121618/graphe6_1000_297_108___.gif 

It's crazy how relentless the mild/wet/stormy weather has been for the past few Winters.

Surely some cause for concern over river levels in the run up to Christmas Day for Cumbria and other north-western areas?   I hope the emergency services on their short term timeframes are more forward thinking than the government are with their longer term time frames with regard to flood mitigation...A notable rain shadow effect on a transect through Snowdonia to north Norfolk!

and a mild end to the year for England according to the 0z Op as the high gets smashed southwest by a raging jet, a possible outcome for the touted high that develops to our NW around Boxing day

There is no doubt this month and probably early January can be written off for cold,but all of those looking for cold do not despair,just remember early 2013....The first 10 days of January were v mild then BANG! cold for the next 12 weeks culminating in the incredible March of that year.

There is a long,long way to go yet!!