Remarkable output again this morning.  Ignoring the silly operational outlier this morning it looks increasingly likely that December 2015 will be frost free down here in the south with the CET record smashed.

yeh I too thought the op had been at the Christmas sherry!

its more of the same for the foreseeable for sure

Or it could just carry on like this until we get blocking in April.

Indeed or we could, in the theme of extremes, get the coldest January or February in over 50 years. Or something in between.

Anyway back to the model output and the next few days look somewhere between mild and scorchio albeit sadly not dry and sunny. Beyond that, as the op run outlier of the 00z GFS run illustrates, other options are available and possible.

Wow,  if that comes off post Christmas it will be more like March:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

(Oh, forgot  apart from 20th / 21st November it HAS been March since November!)

But perhaps tied in with Quantam's and Squish's excellent posts perhaps this is a hint of it deep in FI?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0

However it's all back to square one by 384 hours but this is the GFS so it likes to do that but nice to see an area of HP not to the south of the country for a change.  I agree I think something is brewing for Jan / Feb, the weather rarely stays this mild for so long without a sharp correction.  Not to say it couldn't happen and have a record breaking mild winter, but if it does I suspect early summer will be foul as CFS is already hinting at though of course any LRF is JFF.  

Agree with all the posts on here about Moomin, everyone has their opinion and all very welcome whether you agree or not, if you want to be personal go to another lesser forum - good post by the mod and gusty regarding this.

It comes to something when the Op dipping down to -6c for a day during its entire run is regarded as a cold outlier!

The situation really is desperate and as bad as anything in the internet era.

For those expecting a change in January I think they will be very disappointed, the MetO gives no such indication and I tend to agree, this isn't your typical winter mild spell which can flip overnight this is a mega ElNino induced hemisphere wide warm spell that will not subside until the ElNino reduces in the early Spring.

The pattern is well and truly locked in by the distortion of the ElNino, winter 1998 was very similar and the pattern didn't change until March, I don't think it will this year either.

Andy

Happy xmas to you and your family moomin take care and you were right and your posts were not off the mark in fact they make me chuckle at times even thou im a coldie

Have to disagree with you there - it more commonly does than doesn't.

We will get our "winter" in the spring I am afraid.

Winter 1997-98 had a wintry start, a very mild spell, an easterly, a quiet spell than a stormy spell into the New Year, a colder anticyclonic ending to January, a chilly start to February then an exceptionally mild 2/3rds.

There is no way this December can be compared to the December of 1997. Winter 1997-98 was as a whole, very mild but there were great variations from an easterly to a tropical SWly airstream, strong vicious cyclonicity to benign anticyclonicity.

Good job your here Kev with the facts eh?

People are trying to compare this winter with that last very strong El Niño, you can't because the current spell is unprecedented! There has never been a spell like this in recorded history for this stage of the year. It's a spell that started effectively since the end of October with one or two breaks. 

The futility or at least vagueries of pattern matching. As you say, uncharted terrirory

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

We will see guys but to be honest Kev talking about the brief cold spells in winter 1997/98 is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

Up north we have seen similar spells so far this winter and no doubt others will follow but the overall theme of a very mild winter will persist.

Yes, this ElNino is even stronger than the 1998 event but that's hardly going to result in a colder winter!, something could flip of course but I really think it's unlikely, warm air from the ENino has spread across the NH lower latitudes increasing the temperature gradient with the pole thus increasing the intensity of the Jet Stream, I can't see what will change that until the ElNino subsides?

Andy

Indeed, I think Stormchaser mentioned it one of his always interesting posts that this 'locked in' pattern since November is more to do with something abnormal outside of El Nino in the tropics. From what I can gather most El Nino effects don't start until late Winter but happy to be corrected!  

Unless/until the MetO change their thoughts on the later part of this winter, there is no reason to write it off as a whole. As it is, we're only at 17th December so the winter is still young as far as I'm concerned.

GFS still seems to be toying from time to time with the idea of some kind of change post-Xmas. Yes, only small straws to clutch at but better than nothing I suppose.

Logically you are right of course David. However, in years past, I have seen exactly the same sentiments expressed at this time of year, only for the borefest of mild gunk to continue right through January and February.

Something dramatic has to happen to force a change at this time of year, but it may happen of course.

I popped in to see if there was anything in the data to cheer me up.   Seemingly there isn't.

I can't remember a year like this with so few Fantasy Island cold spells showing up either.  Looks locked in for the foreseeable, which makes me sad. 

Lets have a look at the continuing trend to weaken the polar vortex. Now as I said the 18Z yesterday was a little more significant than previous runs, so it should be no surprise that the weakening was toned down on the 0Z. However on the 6Z the weakning is pretty evident again. Again this is all consistently happening after 192hrs so let's start there. 

This is a pretty robust polar vortex, there is some fraying around the edges however note the central core of cold temperatures at the 500hpa. Indeed the geopotential height contours are about as symmetrical as it is possible to be, with the polar vortex essentially centred directly above the north pole. However, this is not to last as we will see...

By 240hrs the polar vortex is still strong, however it is becoming a little distorted. Over America a chunk is about to be chipped off, while over the central arctic the core of cold temperatures and low heights is becoming stretched and distorted. 

By 300hrs the polar vortex has been pinched into a sausage shape and there is a rather large hold developing in our part of the world too. It is possible that if the weakness manifests itself in the right way we could actually even see a cold spell by this point; however that is secondary to the bigger picture here which is the weakening itself. 

By 360hrs we see a very unhealthy looking polar vortex, there are bits of debris in the low lattitudes everywhere, including a rather large piece in SE europe. A large hole has developed in the European part which has invaded so far into the arctic that it has split the polar vortex in two with a major vortex lying over the Beaufort and a minor vortex over siberia. The distortion is becoming rather significant at this point.

We finish up with this; essentially we have a small polar vortex sitting to the north of canada, and a load of debris over Russia and SE Europe. Although the polar vortex may attempt to regroup; its possible the damage here could be irreparable and we could see a collapse.