Donate to browse the TWO website without adverts until 31st December 2024. You'll also get access to extra features and supporting our ongoing development.
For full details please see Advert free access on our website.
Remove ads from site
The models remain very poor, I doubt if deep down anyone really expects a change from this mild regime for the rest of the winter.
The current output, albeit fascinating from a temperature record point of view, remains frustrating for the lack of cold but also the lack of much to discuss in terms of synoptic change.
In a vague attempt to discuss the Model Output there does seem to be continued signs of a pressure rise to our east after Christmas turning our wind direction more southerly and resulting in the rise of 850hPa temps as seen in the GFS ENS. However, as can be seen from the 2m temps, this does not necessarily equate to a rise in temps at the surface, especially under HP if centred more to the west. Ok, a southerly is not going to produce a winter wonderland, but the HP influence may bring temps back to average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
I do
The charts are getting depressing for me! Why is that Euro High so dominant? What is needed to shift it? My skiing holiday is looking doomed already; Ill need an amazing amount of snow there in the first two weeks of January!
Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton
Some friends I know have already cancelled their skiing trip for late December- their Alpine resort is snowless. They were supposed to spend Christmas and New Year in a winter wonderland- no chance of that!
The last of the sequence but GFS wants to build a huge HP out to the North East. Just want some cold air out there to draw in, and the other 99 ingredients!Originally Posted by: Phil G
Yes the ENS show a trend to a more Anticyclonic circulation post Xmas however most of HP development is to the south or south east.Even the few ENS which develop an easterly have the HP pushed away SE by the powerful jet to the NW.Unless some northern blocking develops there is little chance of HP to the east delivering.And yet.....once HP starts developing near the UK there is a chance albeit a small one of a change in pattern
However my money would still be with METO and continuing NAO + flow until mid January at least.
The "rest of the winter" is an awfully long time at the moment.
As things stand we have another two and a half months to go of the meteorogical winter, and as anyone in Scotland will testify March, although technically a spring month, can often see snow up here.
12z continues the theme of the last run with little variations, obviously a strong signal for high pressure over Germany/Poland area.
Ending with a much colder spin off from the PV
Originally Posted by: Gooner
some of that fabled cold zonality eh Marcus?
Should be good for those up north, JFF of course 😀
More like ending on a blustery cooler westerly flow with wintry showers over northern hills. We are scraping the barrel with that one Marcus. Tough times.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
We live in hope though Steve, well I do anyway.
This chart from early May would spark some interest at this time of year:
http://www2.wetter3.de/Archiv/DWD/15050100_DWD_Analyse.gif
The weather is 6 months out of kilter with the seasons.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3843.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38417.gif
I would go for snow for the North rather than wintry showers ........be gone on the 18z though
Run the model sequence from m idle of February until middle of March: - ALl a long way off and JFF but still - at least there are some decent looking wintry charts on/in the horizon:Originally Posted by: tallyho_83
LOL
If only eh Tally
">http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1614&mode=0&carte=0&run=0
I've just ran that chart through..it takes until the 8th March to get a proper chance of snow into the SE.
JFF of course..but this ain't funny.
Naaaahhhhhhh
Alot earlier than that Steve , its as early as March 6th
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...
Originally Posted by: Fothergill
but things can only get better....
Originally Posted by: picturesareme
Arctic High makes an appearance, and the Polar Vortex looks as though it has split.
