theweatheroutlook

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Sevendust
23 December 2015 16:39:50

Anyway - Back to the immediate issues and GFS now has two potentially damaging storms on the 30th and NYD

Maunder Minimum
23 December 2015 16:41:44

GEM still at it!

Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015122312/gemnh-0-228.png?12


GEM has suddenly become my favourite model - pity its verification stats are not as good as the others. 

New world order coming.
Retron
23 December 2015 16:53:36
Looks like MetO's joined the bomb squad...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

There's a certain unease to seeing these sorts of charts. Although any one of them is unlikely to be correct, the more models and runs that pop up with an intense low the more likely one is to actually appear - not really what's wanted at any time of year, let alone Christmas week!
Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
23 December 2015 17:07:39


 


 


I think in the pattern we are in, up to 10 days is pretty clear and we can extrapolate that further ahead. The METO see cold as unlikely to the end of their forecast period - they see the Euro High's best mate the Azores High becoming the player, or that is the implication from their forecast, more positive NAO/AO 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Someone on here tried to point out to me that your merely a novice to all this ??? reading your posts over the last few days I'm thinking that isn't the case. Let's not be fooled by your post tally eh?


 


I think it would benefit many on here if you were to start posting links etc ?


 


Cheers


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
23 December 2015 17:11:43
Evening all.
I can't remember who mentioned it about a week ago but a direct hit from one of these bombs or sting jet is a real concern atm.
Of even more concern is the amount of rain again in the North West- it's just terrible for these poor folks.
Whatever weather we all prefer, a quieter spell be it mild or cold is something desperately needed here.
Lots of interest in the models currently- it certainly isn't boring!
David M Porter
23 December 2015 17:17:14

Evening all.
I can't remember who mentioned it about a week ago but a direct hit from one of these bombs or sting jet is a real concern atm.
Of even more concern is the amount of rain again in the North West- it's just terrible for these poor folks.
Whatever weather we all prefer, a quieter spell be it mild or cold is something desperately needed here.
Lots of interest in the models currently- it certainly isn't boring!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I think everyone will agree with you on that Jacko, especially those members who live in or around Cumbria.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Retron
23 December 2015 17:23:27

The sense of unease only deepens upon seeing some of what GEFS is churning out right now!




Yuck, quite frankly.

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
23 December 2015 17:26:04


LP winding itself up


 


 



NW is in for a battering , lets hope this doesnt verify



A couple of days later we have another one , some way out and can clearly change but its not ideal , its certainly a very wet and windy run

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
23 December 2015 17:29:01

Evening all.
I can't remember who mentioned it about a week ago but a direct hit from one of these bombs or sting jet is a real concern atm.
Of even more concern is the amount of rain again in the North West- it's just terrible for these poor folks.
Whatever weather we all prefer, a quieter spell be it mild or cold is something desperately needed here.
Lots of interest in the models currently- it certainly isn't boring!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I wouldn't disagree with that Jacko, I just hope there are some weather enthusiasts who look at the charts and are getting a heads up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
23 December 2015 17:30:19


 


Someone on here tried to point out to me that your merely a novice to all this ??? reading your posts over the last few days I'm thinking that isn't the case. Let's not be fooled by your post tally eh?


 


I think it would benefit many on here if you were to start posting links etc ?


 


Cheers


 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Ian Brown???

Retron
23 December 2015 17:30:26

And still the charts keep coming from GEFS. I've never seen so many sub-930 lows floating around. The second chart isn't quite as deep, but Scotland would end up blown on top of Norway if it came off!




Leysdown, north Kent
Fothergill
23 December 2015 17:32:24

APERGE has 100-150mm in the NW over next few days, and that's before the potentially big storms hit in the run up to the new year. Looks like a nasty stormy spell of weather upcoming, seems to often happen around the New Year.


Retron
23 December 2015 17:33:17

Final one for now - this is the deepest non-tropical low I've ever seen on an Atlantic chart. It looks like the GEFS has picked up on some phasing/sting jet activity as Jacko and Gooner suggest - hopefully it'll un-pickup on it soon.


Leysdown, north Kent
Phil G
23 December 2015 17:33:18

Evening all.
I can't remember who mentioned it about a week ago but a direct hit from one of these bombs or sting jet is a real concern atm.
Of even more concern is the amount of rain again in the North West- it's just terrible for these poor folks.
Whatever weather we all prefer, a quieter spell be it mild or cold is something desperately needed here.
Lots of interest in the models currently- it certainly isn't boring!

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I mentioned the possibility of hearing about sting Jets the other day when GFS processed some stormy charts at the end of, and into the New Year.


Don't think these lows are moving that fast to have the sting jet characteristic and the jet over us doesn't look quite as strong, but on two occasions at the moment they look quite hideous over our shores.


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif


 


 


 

Solar Cycles
23 December 2015 17:34:29
Some bloody nasty charts being progged for the New Year, are we seeing the PV ramping up another gear or the beginning of the end of its demise.🤔
JACKO4EVER
23 December 2015 17:34:32


 


I wouldn't disagree with that Jacko, I just hope there are some weather enthusiasts who look at the charts and are getting a heads up


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


yeh, and I know it's GFES and its tendency to overcook lows, but some of the charts this evening are quite frankly frightening. Let's hope they downgrade or we could end up with a miserable end to the year for many people 

Retron
23 December 2015 17:37:30


yeh, and I know it's GFES and its tendency to overcook lows, but some of the charts this evening are quite frankly frightening. Let's hope they downgrade or we could end up with a miserable end to the year for many people 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling a bit perturbed by some of those pertubations tonight! GEFS has clearly picked up on a signal, low-res or not, and it's a development of the past few runs. Surely it can't ramp up any more, can it?


The MetO chart is also of mild concern tonight, as it doesn't usually go for big, deep lows on its day 6 charts. If even that's picking up signs of one, well...


 

Leysdown, north Kent
idj20
23 December 2015 17:39:36

Getting that dreaded "Oh, here we go again" feeling. Looks like it may be a good idea to make sure the buildings insurance is up to date or renewed if some of those outputs are anything to go by on.

Would be interesting to see ECM's take on it. Yes, GEM still maintains that easterly theme but I think it's going to be on its own with that one.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Retron
23 December 2015 17:43:42


Getting that dreaded "Oh, here we go again" feeling. Looks like it may be a good idea to make sure the buildings insurance is up to date or renewed if some of those outputs are anything to go by on.

Would be interesting to see ECM's take on it. Yes, GEM still maintains that easterly theme but I think it's going to be on its own with that one.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Remember folks that Meteociel offers a handy table view of the GEFS:


http://meteociel.com/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1&table=1


Click a location on that map and bam, Bob's your uncle. Choose "vent 10m" for windspeed, bear in mind it's mean windspeed in km/h, not gusts. Perturbation 17, the one with the 915 low, has mean windspeeds of 83MPH to the immediate south of the low!


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Charmhills
23 December 2015 17:44:15

I must admit I love a good stormy spell.


Bring it on if we can't have anything cold and seasonal for now.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gooner
23 December 2015 17:49:17


 


I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling a bit perturbed by some of those pertubations tonight! GEFS has clearly picked up on a signal, low-res or not, and it's a development of the past few runs. Surely it can't ramp up any more, can it?


The MetO chart is also of mild concern tonight, as it doesn't usually go for big, deep lows on its day 6 charts. If even that's picking up signs of one, well...


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions


Yes Darren as you say even UKMO are showing a hell of a storm, this one could miss the BI .......hopefully

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
23 December 2015 17:50:08


 


I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling a bit perturbed by some of those pertubations tonight! GEFS has clearly picked up on a signal, low-res or not, and it's a development of the past few runs. Surely it can't ramp up any more, can it?


The MetO chart is also of mild concern tonight, as it doesn't usually go for big, deep lows on its day 6 charts. If even that's picking up signs of one, well...


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


yes as you say MetO are also onboard in the shorter timeframe- perhaps this is the pattern change? We could well be on the cusp of a very stormy spell. Very interesting model watching for sure- it may well in the long term smash the HP over Europe and lead to a more seasonal feel. Time will tell. 

springsunshine
23 December 2015 17:54:39


 


Remember folks that Meteociel offers a handy table view of the GEFS:


http://meteociel.com/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1&table=1


Click a location on that map and bam, Bob's your uncle. Choose "vent 10m" for windspeed, bear in mind it's mean windspeed in km/h, not gusts. Perturbation 17, the one with the 915 low, has mean windspeeds of 83MPH to the immediate south of the low!


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Some of those charts look frightening and potentially highly destructive looks like somewhere is going to get a right battering and/or soaking.Not good!

Whether Idle
23 December 2015 18:13:49


 


I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling a bit perturbed by some of those pertubations tonight! GEFS has clearly picked up on a signal, low-res or not, and it's a development of the past few runs. Surely it can't ramp up any more, can it?


The MetO chart is also of mild concern tonight, as it doesn't usually go for big, deep lows on its day 6 charts. If even that's picking up signs of one, well...


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Its  bad news this evening Darren.  Not only has the tiny chance of an easterly in the offing entirely gone but the might of the Atlantic will be shown over the next week.  As a householder who has been the victim of storm damage I am feeling a sense of unease as these deep stormy lows are predicted.  We must all hope that at the time the reality is far less extreme.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Fothergill
23 December 2015 18:31:19

ECM now also predicting a nasty low on the 29th. Extremely tight isobars there


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