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Rob K
23 December 2015 17:12:38


and there is no end in sight,could the warmest January cet record be under threat too??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


From current output, the conditions look like turning much more average pretty well from the stroke of January 1. January may not be a cold month but it doesn't look (at the moment) like the insane warmth will persist past next week.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2015 22:58:54
Meanwhile across the pond:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/23/scores-of-eastern-u-s-cities-to-shatter-christmas-eve-warm-weather-records/ 

Some stunning potential stats. I love the idea that nighttime lows in some cities could beat previous record highs!

Unlike here though, there's some cold air gathering ready to sweep Eastwards in a week's time.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
23 December 2015 23:34:38


 


This month is going to be one of the most remarkable months,temperature wise, in the whole of the CET record,the likes of which may not happen again for centuries.As Gw pointed out December 2015 is looking like being warmer than every December,January,February,March and November(except Nov `94) on record. Incredible absolutely incredible and there is no end in sight,could the warmest January cet record be under threat too??


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Although CET records go "only" back to 1659. I do wonder if a December like this may have taken place in the early middle ages warming period of the 12th or 13th Centuries. There was a marked warming period in that time - and I feel from what I have read such as it is that this December or a rather a December like it may have taken place before about 700 years ago.


How can we prove it though?


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Stormchaser
24 December 2015 16:17:31

The last seven days across Europe and the UK:



 


we've not even had the most extreme anomalies!


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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Gusty
25 December 2015 14:05:31

After a cold and raw morning with temperatures around 9.5c things have been restored back to normality. Currently 12.7c and rising swiftly.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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moomin75
25 December 2015 15:24:29


After a cold and raw morning with temperatures around 9.5c things have been restored back to normality. Currently 12.7c and rising swiftly.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Actually chuckled when I read your describing of 9.5c as cold and raw.


How we have been spoiled with winter warmth this December. 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Hungry Tiger
25 December 2015 15:36:58


After a cold and raw morning with temperatures around 9.5c things have been restored back to normality. Currently 12.7c and rising swiftly.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


LOL 🙂 Same here - and that's how it felt to me. Shows how we've got used to these amazing mild temperatures.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Stormchaser
26 December 2015 08:29:48
Causally starting Boxing Day at 14*C... With a 12*C low expected tonight and 15*C possible tomorrow.

This is so not right!
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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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schmee
26 December 2015 08:48:04
13.5c here and the wind feels quite mild.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
TimS
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26 December 2015 08:57:07
Been hovering around 14-15C overnight. Warmervthan the July night average. Yet again the heating didn't click on this morning because thermostat never fell enough.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Andy J
26 December 2015 13:38:11

14C here at the moment, after the temp had risen to 13C at 6am this morning.


Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.
Hungry Tiger
26 December 2015 13:50:03

Been up to 15C here.


yet another amazing mild day for this December.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Sevendust
26 December 2015 16:02:27

I had hoped we would break the day record of 16.0'c today but the highest I've seen is 15.7'c.


Last night Gravesend was at 15.6'c at 3am!

Weathermac
26 December 2015 17:59:34

Felt more like a march day today even saw a bumble bee ...it's ridiculously mild it can't continue like this....can it ..

SJV
26 December 2015 18:16:38


Felt more like a march day today even saw a bumble bee ...it's ridiculously mild it can't continue like this....can it ..


Originally Posted by: Weathermac 


Not for much longer! No real cold heading this way but the freakishly mild temperatures look like giving way to 'nearer normal' temperatures.


It has been another mild one today, we peaked at 13.4C here. If it wasn't for the strong winds it might have felt better 

Gusty
26 December 2015 20:35:35

Its more than weird now. The temperature peaked today at 13.4c after an overnight low of 12.2c. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Stormchaser
26 December 2015 22:20:56

Had an overnight low of 13.45*C here which is the highest since 15th November. There was also an overnight high of 14.2*C which is higher than the daytime max of 14.0*C. Weird.


The diurnal mean today comes in at a winter-defying 13.7*C which is a staggering 9.27*C above the 2000-2014 date average.


The month mean gets a boost from 6.38*C above the 1979-2010 average to 6.49*C above so poised to cross the 6.5 mark which it will surely do tomorrow given that GFS goes for a 12*C min and 14*C max (perhaps close to 14.5*C based on high def charts), with that being based on it being 12*C at the moment when in fact it's 13.5*C... the model seems to be struggling to handle the magnitude of the mildness!


There's the suggestion of a few breaks in the cloud which would make for a phenomenal feel to things, but I'm not getting my hopes up in that respect. Looks a bit breezy but not that bad really.


 


On Monday the upper air temps are even higher - not far off 10*C which is crazy - but at the surface it's actually a little cooler with temps generally in the low double digits at best. Yet that's still way above average especially given that the previous night struggles to get far down into the single figures.


Tuesday looks similar, perhaps a bit fresher in terms of the feel of things. Uppers are much lower - not far above 0*C.


Then we have that nasty storm slamming the northwest (potentially) and throwing up another wedge of super-mild air. I wouldn't be surprised to see double digit minimums and maxes in the 12-14*C range again.


Only after that does it truly cool down to something nearer average more widely (though still above). Thursday may fail to reach double figures in many places but it does look like the south will just about get there.


 


What a mad month it has been.


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
26 December 2015 23:10:15
It's been within 0.3C of the same temperature for 24 hours now. Almost like there's some sophisticated climate-control in operation outside. And that temperature is 14.4C. Very strange. Warmest December 24 hours I can remember.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Hungry Tiger
26 December 2015 23:12:38


Had an overnight low of 13.45*C here which is the highest since 15th November. There was also an overnight high of 14.2*C which is higher than the daytime max of 14.0*C. Weird.


The diurnal mean today comes in at a winter-defying 13.7*C which is a staggering 9.27*C above the 2000-2014 date average.


The month mean gets a boost from 6.38*C above the 1979-2010 average to 6.49*C above so poised to cross the 6.5 mark which it will surely do tomorrow given that GFS goes for a 12*C min and 14*C max (perhaps close to 14.5*C based on high def charts), with that being based on it being 12*C at the moment when in fact it's 13.5*C... the model seems to be struggling to handle the magnitude of the mildness!


There's the suggestion of a few breaks in the cloud which would make for a phenomenal feel to things, but I'm not getting my hopes up in that respect. Looks a bit breezy but not that bad really.


 


On Monday the upper air temps are even higher - not far off 10*C which is crazy - but at the surface it's actually a little cooler with temps generally in the low double digits at best. Yet that's still way above average especially given that the previous night struggles to get far down into the single figures.


Tuesday looks similar, perhaps a bit fresher in terms of the feel of things. Uppers are much lower - not far above 0*C.


Then we have that nasty storm slamming the northwest (potentially) and throwing up another wedge of super-mild air. I wouldn't be surprised to see double digit minimums and maxes in the 12-14*C range again.


Only after that does it truly cool down to something nearer average more widely (though still above). Thursday may fail to reach double figures in many places but it does look like the south will just about get there.


 


What a mad month it has been.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Looks like a CET of 10C is a possibility.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


27 December 2015 09:24:57

It looks like we may have equalled the highest December minimum temperature on record today for England. The current record is 13.7C set at Whitby on 12 December 1994, the only year that comes close to this year in terms of November and December temperatures in England.


The minimum temperature at Benson in the 24 hours to 09z this morning appears to be 13.7C reached at 1700 yesterday although it may have dipped a little lower between the hourly readings. The minimum figure reported on the SYNOP data is 13.7C but I think that is recorded from 18z to 06z so would not have captured any lower reading between 16z and 18z yesterday.


Northolt and Heathrow were also both close but the temperature in both these locations dipped at 07z this morning taking them out of the reckoning. The temperature at Benson held up at that time.


It would be quite odd if Benson, a notorious frost hollow, has equalled the record for the highest December minimum in England.


The highest UK minimum for December is much higher at 15C at Hawarden in Wales.


 

Hungry Tiger
27 December 2015 13:53:23

Some other stats to add to this December - This December has been warmer than several Mays.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
27 December 2015 14:11:46


It looks like we may have equalled the highest December minimum temperature on record today for England. The current record is 13.7C set at Whitby on 12 December 1994, the only year that comes close to this year in terms of November and December temperatures in England.


The minimum temperature at Benson in the 24 hours to 09z this morning appears to be 13.7C reached at 1700 yesterday although it may have dipped a little lower between the hourly readings. The minimum figure reported on the SYNOP data is 13.7C but I think that is recorded from 18z to 06z so would not have captured any lower reading between 16z and 18z yesterday.


Northolt and Heathrow were also both close but the temperature in both these locations dipped at 07z this morning taking them out of the reckoning. The temperature at Benson held up at that time.


It would be quite odd if Benson, a notorious frost hollow, has equalled the record for the highest December minimum in England.


The highest UK minimum for December is much higher at 15C at Hawarden in Wales.


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


The value for 9am this morning was 12.1°C apparently? http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3658.html 


Stormchaser
27 December 2015 20:34:07

Date Anomalies 7-Day Moving Avg.


 


Here we see a 7-day moving average of the date anomalies (LTA 2000-2014) for my location in 2015. The final few days are based on model projections at the moment but deviations from it aren't expected to amount to much. This chart will be updated once the year is done.


Up until late July, a fairly typical oscillation between warmer and colder than average is observed (this measure shows us how that single hot day to start July wasn't part of anything particularly impressive over longer timescales). Then comes several months of predominantly cooler than average conditions, most notably late July and early August (how typical!). What a contrast that was to one month previously when it was generally on the warm side.


November and December then took hold of the book of typical behaviour and tore it to shreds!


Up until then April had stood proud as the warmest month relative to average, and still holds the title of finest month relative to the norm, having sported decent sunshine amounts and not too much rain - a feat that Nov and Dec have not been able to match in terms of sunshine at least.


Today marks the final super-mild day based on model projections, but despite featuring the two most anomalously warm days, the past 7 days isn't the warmest such period, coming in at +6.57*C which is comfortably beaten by the period 16th-22nd Dec with a truly staggering value of +7.63*C.


Even with climate change, I find it hard to imagine that such an anomalously warm December could possibly be seen again within the next half-century at least. Today I walked in the heathlands of the New Forest, where an abundance of yellow flowers stood out like sore thumbs against the grey, gloomy background.


 


Edit: just to clarify, I do know that gorse often flowers in December, but in my experience it tends to be sporadic and not very extensive. This year most of the bushes are in full bloom!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2015 21:19:07

Staggering chart SC. Let's hope anything like it will not reappear in your quoted timescale. However given my impression of the highly non-linear effects in climate change, I wouldn't be surprised if it is. 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Bertwhistle
27 December 2015 21:21:04


Some other stats to add to this December - This December has been warmer than several Mays.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


36 Mays TBP


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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