WM, whats your take on the model output atm? I know it looks bloody awful in the reliable but there are some subtle hints as we head into new year of some colder stuff? Surely enough to keep the coldies like Marcus interested?

 Undercutting low gets started as early as 3rd Jan but it's the following low approaching the SW at T+276 on the GFS 06 that really makes things look exciting when looking at the UK precip. type tab.

Indeed, it's impossible to do a thorough scientific analysis but if this is kept up for enough years we'll be able to see if a pattern of lower accuracy at Christmas emerges.

Hmm, wonder if there's anywhere with archived model accuracy stats?

Hmm again - I think I've got an extra few charts to add to my daily "sweep" that I keep!

Here's last year's accuracy chart, FWIW. There was a marked dip shortly after Christmas, but that would have been too soon to be the lack of data on Christmas Day (as it's a T+144 verification, we'd be looking for a dip on the 31st). Let's see what this year brings!

Yes it does look truly dismal doesn't it, for everyone not just cold lovers. I have my doubts about the 06z today. They tend not to verify too well compared to the 0z and 12z's (see Brian's post yesterday). 

Therefore I would discount this mornings 06z as a blip. 

Thanks Retron for the info. Let's see what this years verification stats bring.  

Unfortunately (but perhaps not unexpected) GEFS 06h  shows only a minority,(35%) of ENS from 192 to 288h , having any  eastertly component over the UK.

Had it not been for this insane El Nino, the block might have won. But we all know it will get blasted away in the reliable trimeframe and we get the nightmare of endless rain and mild southerlies

Merry Christmas

Your probably right WM, however there is one very worrying scenario that I hope does not take hold. It has nothing to do with mild or cold, but its the resilience of the block to the NE. I am worried we may end up with endless stalemate- the Atlantic throwing all it can against the UK only for these fronts to stall and become slow moving due to higher pressure NE. One to keep an eye on- if this happens with the recurrent long fetch SW component to the conveyor belt of moisture then we could be in real flooding trouble throughout the UK.

Yes I think I guessed something like that might be the case Roger; but at the time I could only see the 00z ensembles still, so it gave me a really nice moment. I'm going to stick with..you never know.

The ECM control run has widespread blizzards across the Midlands, southern and SE England at T+222 as low pressure moves eastwards and deepens, pulling in some cold air in its wake. The epicentre in the midlands is shown as having a foot of snow in 6 hours!

Different time, different place, but the same basic mechanism that brings snow on the 0z operational ECM.

Neither are likely in my view (as pinpointing specifics like that even 3 days out is tricky!) but it's something to keep in mind: deep low = lower 850 heights = more chance of snow than would otherwise be the case.

The post also showed that although 0z and 12z verify better, the difference in verification between them and the 06z and 18z is so small as to be negligible/non existent!

Ultimately on any single run, it has as much chance as being likely as any other single run, does it not?

Retron-

How do I find ECM control run for times like 222? My options on chart viewer only seem to give ECM options at 216 and then 240 and I'm not sure if the one shown is a control or operational run.

Cheers

Bertie

I remember one year we got some cold 12z runs on Christmas Eve but I can't remember it happening for 00z or 06z before.

I think it's best to remain cautious about any model output until 27th though! 

[quote=doctormog;745800]

And while it may only be a blip/FI eye candy/gone in six hours, it does clearly demonstrate the risks of claiming to know the weather for the rest of winter. While this scenario may very well not come close to fruition...it could.

[/quot

Spot on

The way to do it is to use your "flexible friend" - Accuweather Pro has the full run it all its glory, including snowfall, partial thicknesses and so on.

Note that if you do have a credit card, you can get a month free providing you cancel before the time is up. You get the remainder of the month after you cancel too.

If only

How much is it Darren?

Harsh , very harsh

Have a good one

Im the oldest swinger in town and I love it and the the 6z

Also merry xmas and a happy and safe new year to you all

It's $20 a month after the free trial expires. For me, it's worth paying for - at least, for 2 of the 3 winter months!

Weatherbell also provide access to parts of the ECM (but less than Accuweather do) - they offer a 1-week free trial.

We still cant rule it out Roger The beast is lurking

Cheers Darren we have to careful with weatherbell charts while we are on subject as I know they get very upset about realtime charts from them posted in forums one to keep in mind for the newer members

Big confusion from its members as the storm comes into time frame I dont think we can take any output that serious until that is sorted out