theweatheroutlook

Remove ads from site

Whether Idle
26 December 2015 11:35:45


Ian Ferguson has said that the chances of an E/SE set-up is around 10%, and the Atlantic is a big favourite up to 15 days ahead.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


So a move from 1% to 10%, blimey!  90% Atlantic Victory, who could have doubted it

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Whether Idle
26 December 2015 11:39:31

I hadn't even noticed this mornings GEM!! Didn't look that promising at +144

Originally Posted by: squish 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2402.gif


The first chart I posted this morning Squish, and an outlier.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Solar Cycles
26 December 2015 11:46:51

This is what Fergie saidQuite so. Presently, the E/SE'ly cold solutions courtesy of the diffluent block out east - as offered by some recent deterministic output across various suites - is rated as 10% PROB. Whilst a mobile/zonal pattern remains the stronger and thus more favoured signal out beyond d10-15, clearly any mean fields will be skewed by these energetic ENS members (& with inevitable tendency to lean back towards climatology) versus those stamps (presently a minority) showing the opposite. I know we hammer on about this, but inspection of individual stamps is critical, rather than pronouncements based solely on ENS mean. As it stands, indication of an eventual change to the pattern has bolstered slightly, rather than diminished. But it's clearly all highly tentative for now.
8 people like this


 


 

Solar Cycles
26 December 2015 11:56:11
On my iPad mods and having problems editing the above.
KevBrads1
26 December 2015 12:01:28


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


Yes, I don't place too much faith in the UKMO T144 anyway

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Hmm....why is that? 


Come to think of it Ian "Melanie" Brown also had that line of thinking as well. Anyone got verification stats on model performances at that timeframe? 

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Saint Snow
26 December 2015 12:04:04

I'm not sure anyone should be embarrassed at discussing the output shown in a model output discussion thread! The picture is no clearer than it was yesterday or the day before. We know easterlies in the model output are fickle things (if you pardon the anthropomorphism).

We have been down this road many times in the past and yet no one can still say with certainty what will happen. Only time will tell but it will be interesting to see what transpires in the coming weeks. Given current output almost anything is on the table - what we end up dining on remains to be seen but for the sake of those in N England and other flood hit areas I hope it is not "more of the same".

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Well spoken, Doc. It's almost as if certain posters long for people on here to get over-excited about a potential cold spell, just so they can sneer when it doesn't come off. Despite everyone keeping their feet on the ground in terms of chances of a cold spell, some still like to poke with sticks.


In terms of model output, as several have said we're going to see different outcomes from different runs, as there are a couple of 'crossroads' in terms of critical phases over the next few days. The form horse will be for the influence of the SH on the UK's weather to be minimal, but with models/runs still showing possibilities of something much better, nobody can rule that out.


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Gandalf The White
26 December 2015 12:19:56


">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes, I don't place too much faith in the UKMO T144 anyway and we know the 06z is often a more 'blocked' run. I think we can comfortably say any dividing line will be well to the East of the UK, then if the Atlantic wins it can be a long time before there is another shot at it.


 


The METO remain consistent with their view for January.



Curious comments.  I have no recollection of the 06z being a 'more blocked run'.


As for the MetO, we've already discussed when a change in the synoptic pattern might be reflected in the forecasts - but even then I doubt they would change their long-range view based on shortish-term synoptics.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Retron
26 December 2015 12:22:40


Hmm....why is that? 


Come to think of it Ian "Melanie" Brown also had that line of thinking as well. Anyone got verification stats on model performances at that timeframe? 


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Historical reasons - it was a frequent comment on usw* that the UKMO 144 chart wasn't very good. Purely anecdotally it doesn't seem to resolve surface patterns very well at that range (it doesn't seem as detailed as say GFS), but that's academic anyway at that range.


Here's the current day 6 verification stats at the 500hPa level:



 


* usw - the Usenet group uk.sci.weather, aka the place that technically-minded people hung out before Web forums became a "thing"!

Leysdown, north Kent
White Meadows
26 December 2015 12:43:54
Remember Santas sleigh flight would have caused massive disruption to model data so all could be back on tomorrow 😏
Quantum
26 December 2015 12:45:21

OK Lets do a full analysis of the support. I'll use this key.


**********************************************


Success: Cold easterly before the 5th


Late: Cold easterly after the 5th


Near miss: South easterly flirtation but Atlantic breakthrough


Failure: No cold feed


******************************************


THE BIG THREE: N


ECMWF0Z: F


GFS6Z: S


GFS0ZP: N


GEFS6Z: N NNNNNNNNNNN FFFFFF LLL S


GEM0Z: S


GEMS0Z: F FFFFFFFFFFFF NNNNN SSSS


 


THE FAULTY FOUR: F


NOGAPSS: F FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF N L


CFS0Z: F


NCMRWF0Z: F


CMA0Z: F


**********************************************


A real mixed bag, among the big three N is currently preferred which to me implies that the future still very much hangs in the balance.


Don't rule anything out yet.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
NickR
26 December 2015 14:05:21

I think we all need to calm down a little. There is nothing per se wrong with people posting who prefer to emphasise mild charts. One might say it balances the tendency to emphasise cold charts. Of course, there can be trolling, and any trolling posts should be reported. Before posting it would probably be a good idea to ask whether the post you are unhappy about would have provoked the same reaction in you had it been about cold charts. As it stands, it seems to me that some people need to get thicker skins. There is plenty in the world to get worked up about, but getting worked up at people posting in a way that is not all about cold and snow does not seem to be a particularly good use of one's energy, to be honest. Like I say, report posts which you deem to be trolling and we will look at it dispassionately.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Rob K
26 December 2015 14:30:09
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
llamedos
26 December 2015 14:51:08


I think we all need to calm down a little. There is nothing per se wrong with people posting who prefer to emphasise mild charts. One might say it balances the tendency to emphasise cold charts. Of course, there can be trolling, and any trolling posts should be reported. Before posting it would probably be a good idea to ask whether the post you are unhappy about would have provoked the same reaction in you had it been about cold charts. As it stands, it seems to me that some people need to get thicker skins. There is plenty in the world to get worked up about, but getting worked up at people posting in a way that is not all about cold and snow does not seem to be a particularly good use of one's energy, to be honest. Like I say, report posts which you deem to be trolling and we will look at it dispassionately.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

As Nick said

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Chunky Pea
26 December 2015 15:08:10


Hmm, is that based on the Weatherbell means or something else?


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


No. but what if it was?


I have no real interest in looking at local means and tweaks from run to run, they mean little when set against the bigger picture. While there may be a few 'cold clusters' in the run, the majority of them paint a zonal, Atlantic driven picture beyond day 10, which if anything, is as vigorous a zonal flow as we have seen this month thus far. Could all change of course in the next run.. as I have already said.. as this progged block could have a few aces up its sleeve yet.


 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
David M Porter
26 December 2015 15:25:12

Closing in five minutes.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

Remove ads from site

Ads