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Rob K
30 December 2015 15:27:03
Jan 2012 CET was 5.4C

Jan 2013 was 3.5C.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
30 December 2015 15:28:22


 


Hi Quantum,


I must admit I hadn't realised that Jan 2012 was colder than average; I would be surprised if it was colder than Jan 2013 as that January did have a fairly persistent, although not severe, cold spell from the second week of the month until just before the end of it.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Sorry I got the two confused, but yes I think it has a good chance (say 65%) of being colder than 2013 which was around 0.3C below average I think.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
David M Porter
30 December 2015 15:30:12

Jan 2012 CET was 5.4C

Jan 2013 was 3.5C.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Thanks Rob.


I was fairly confident that Jan 2013 was the colder of the two, as the cold weather lasted for long than in the previous January. Jan 2012 only turned cold towards the tail end of the month IIRC.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
30 December 2015 15:33:37


Without being able to check right now, Jan 2012 was around 5.5C ??


 


Colder than average Jan/Febs have only followed above 5C Decembers twice in the last 28 years.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Didn't Jan 2013 turn out colder than Dec 2012? I know that December '12 was nowhere near as mild overall as this month but it was did turn quite mild and wet in the second half of the month in the run-up to Xmas, from what I remember.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
30 December 2015 15:45:11

Off topic I know but here is the data since 1990 in one graphic.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
30 December 2015 15:49:29


Off topic I know but here is the data since 1990 in one graphic.



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Cheers Rob.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Bertwhistle
30 December 2015 15:56:43


Without being able to check right now, Jan 2012 was around 5.5C ??


 


Colder than average Jan/Febs have only followed above 5C Decembers twice in the last 28 years.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


A convenient date range; let's do the last 32 years instead. I count 13 years with below average January or February temps. from winter 83/84 onwards. 5 of those Jan/Feb slots followed 5+ C Decembers; 8 didn't. The 8 does include Jan 92 at 3.7C- yes it's 0.1C below but would we feel it? I bet it would've been 3.8 before final CET adjustments!


In that same time range, I make it 14 cold Decembers; only 8 were followed by either a cold Jan or Feb (again if we include 1992's feeble 3.7) and 6 weren't.


Of course, my date range is as loaded as yours because it includes the 1985-87 range. Just goes to show you can prove just about anything if you craft it carefully.


If anything, the 32years is more statistically significant (ever so slightly) because it's a larger sample.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat


 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Rob K
30 December 2015 16:01:33
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Bertwhistle
30 December 2015 16:04:56

12Z rolling out. Saturday looks a bit of a washout. Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn661.gif


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_108_mslp850.png?cb=601


The Scandi ridge and the Greenland High seem to be joining hands against the bully; where will that low go?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Rob K
30 December 2015 16:13:05
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
pdiddy
30 December 2015 16:21:41


 


Didn't Jan 2013 turn out colder than Dec 2012? I know that December '12 was nowhere near as mild overall as this month but it was did turn quite mild and wet in the second half of the month in the run-up to Xmas, from what I remember.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


David - yes, Jan 13 3.5C v Dec 12 4.8C

Phil G
30 December 2015 16:26:12

Hope this dartboard stays away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


EDIT: Can't even make out what pressure it is, so tightly packed.


 

Snow Hoper
30 December 2015 16:33:17


Hope this dartboard stays away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


EDIT: Can't even make out what pressure it is, so tightly packed.


 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


935mb ouch!

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Fothergill
30 December 2015 16:33:37

Very nasty ~932mb low approaching, looks a bit too extreme although a deep low around then looks possible



UKMO 144hrs not good for cold prospects 


Rob K
30 December 2015 16:34:09


Hope this dartboard stays away.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif


EDIT: Can't even make out what pressure it is, so tightly packed.


 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Central isobar is 935 I think.


 


And sub 930mb by 186 hours! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1861.gif


 


 


 


Anyway certainly a cooler feel than of late on this run out to the end of the reliableish period: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
30 December 2015 16:36:10
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.gif 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
30 December 2015 16:36:35

Gosh ! 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



SJV
30 December 2015 16:38:27


Very nasty ~932mb low approaching, looks a bit too extreme although a deep low around then looks possible



UKMO 144hrs not good for cold prospects 



Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


Extreme yes, but yesterday's 12z also had a deep low pressure poised to affect the UK after Jan 7th, so it's a consistent signal. One has to hope, should it materialise, that it isn't as deep as this! 

Rob K
30 December 2015 16:38:39
Certainly interesting times for those who like a good winter blow (as it were...)
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
pdiddy
30 December 2015 16:51:24


Gosh ! 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Storm Gerty Incoming...

Whether Idle
30 December 2015 16:52:04


We do not need this kind of storm.  More runs needed.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
idj20
30 December 2015 17:02:53


Gosh ! 



Originally Posted by: Gusty 



Ouch, and bear in mind that it was GFS who sniffed out the deep 932 mb low that is now Frank from 8 days ago. Taking into account the usual adjustments, what's the betting that this one does end up being verified as we get nearer to the time.

As WI suggested, more runs needed (and a lot of hoping, not that it makes any difference to the final outcome before Charmhill jump down my throat. ).   

To think that I was once a winter lover, now I just get more depressed about it with each passing season. Must be an age thing.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
30 December 2015 17:04:22
12Z ends up with a good old fashioned toppler. Been a while since we had one of those. Sings of a possible double topple reload right at the far end.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
sriram
30 December 2015 17:09:24

I hope it's not a close but not close enough month next month for winter fans

After seeing Gavin's updates - we could well be going in that direction

Cold rain is vile - but that's what we are going to get in the next few weeks


 

Sriram
Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )
162m ASL
Retron
30 December 2015 17:14:20



Cold rain is vile - but that's what we are going to get in the next few weeks


Originally Posted by: sriram 


You mean to say you know what the weather will be doing in more than 10 days, other than guessing climatology?


Quite remarkable considering even at day 5 we have lows to the north of us, lows to the south of us... I guess we're stuck in the middle with you!


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=132&code=5&mode=0&carte=0 (South)


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=132&code=7&mode=0&carte=0 (North)


(Or to put it more bluntly - the outlook is even less certain than normal, as evinced by the large number of clusters even at 120 in the ECM ensembles, not to mention the vast array of possibilities for track and intensity of lows at 120 in GEFS. Until that's sorted - and it won't be for a few days yet - we're in no position to know what the general situation will be like in say 10 days from now.


Just think back a few days when GEFS was showing sub 925 lows from anywhere from the UK to Iceland to the mid-Atlantic... in the end, Iceland copped it, but that wasn't nailed on until a couple of days ago.)


 


 

Leysdown, north Kent

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