Morning all. A continuation of the wet weather is the prospect for at least the next several days with bouts of persistent if not overly heavy rain. However there is sadly a strong chance of flooding in NE Scotland due to the longevity of precipitation- there could well be some snow at times here on hills too.

An interesting ECM 0z set as Steve has just pointed out- the PV looks to be squashed southwards preserving the Scandinavian HP. What this means further down the line is any ones guess, but my feelings would be a spell of cool zonality for a period with snow at times on Northern hills with the odd frost thrown in between passing systems.

In the short term 72-144h it does look from ENS that LP are tracking just slightly further south which would increase risk of snow for far north and north east..However no sign of shift far enough south to give widespread snow.

ECM op may look okay but in the main (GEFS), the longer term is looking pretty poor. My hopes of a Greenland High are beginning to fade and there are definite signs from GEFS of a height rise to the S/Europe once again...

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With all this mild wet pattern persisting and never went below 10C here yet while Nicosia, Cyprus saw their first cold spell at 7C max and 3C last night with snowfall greeting the residents on New Year Day morning.  Death Valley had a cold December with some daytime temps colder than UK while night time was far colder with a 0C and -2C being recorded, rest is 1-5C.  This still 10C colder than UK night time temps in Dec.  

I am now looking forward for longer daylight and into Spring if there no sign of proper winter weather here.

It's a simple principle - if you have at most a 20% chance of an easterly, and subtract say a 20% chance of a uk based high, you're left with 60% chance of a continued W based regime and all that brings.

This then is the likely pattern going into mid January, was the general consensus of most LRFs, and the NWP is sticking to type. The ENS if anything have trended milder again this morning.

The question is, can we get another month with way above average temperature anomalies. I wouldn't rule it out to be honest.

 

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Here are the 0z ECM ensembles. Not much to comment on, really, they show neither exceptional mildness nor anything especially cold.

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I don't see any prospect of that. January will probably be "mild" but only in the way that UK Januaries usually are mild. In terms of CET I think it is likely to be pretty average, as the pressure patterns look closer to "typical" rather than the exceptional long-fetch SW set-up of Nov/Dec. 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/35210830

7am BBC outlook for the week: Louise Lear still talking block, split jet stream and E'ly influence in the Northern half of UK for much of the week, with lower temps & snow in far north.

(wet weekend first though)

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 2ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A filling depression will move slowly NE across the UK today followed by an active trough associated with a deep Atlantic depression following NE across the UK tomorrow followed by a vigorous and showery SW flow across the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 4000ft asl to 6000ftasl North to South across the UK today with snowfall restricted to higher summits of Scotland today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The main theme of the Jet Stream shows the flow remaining strong across the Atlantic for most of the next few weeks. For most of the time it runs East just to the South of the UK, strongly at times before a slow drift back North through Week 2 culminating in a change to a more undulating flow over and around the UK towards the end of the period in a somewhat lighter form than currently.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows the next week to 10 days as being wet and very windy at times across the UK in variable and cyclonic winds as Low pressure continues to move across the UK from the West. They then move somewhat more to the North by a weeks time with SW gales or severe gales delivering spells of heavy rain mixed with showery periods and at any time there looks the risk of some snow over Northern hills at times. Then in the second week winds switch more to the North or NW with colder weatehr for all with wintry showers and frost at night with pressure rising to the SW leaving the UK in a breezy and somewhat chilly NW flow to end the period with further showers in the North and East.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with the same build of pressure to the South late in the period bringing drier weather to all, still with some rain and strong Westerly breezes in the North and West with some rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today continues to look very unsettled across the UK next week as Low pressure close to Southern England early in the week only slowly fills and ebbs away East to be absorbed by a new powerful Atlantic Low pressure South of Iceland towards the end of next week sweeping more heavy rain and strong winds NE across the UK late in the period. Some snowfall is likely across the higher ground of the North and East through the early stages of next week with adrier interlude for many before the main depressions spins gales and rain NE followed by squally showers to all areas by next weekend with wintry showers possible over the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts main theme today continues to show Low pressure across or near the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers and some snow on Northern hills on the Northern side of troughs slow moving over the far North.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning maintains very wet and volatile conditions across the UK throughout it's 10 day span with plenty more deep Low pressure running into the UK from off the Atlantic with rain and showers aplenty and rather colder conditions than of late delivering some snow at times to the hills of the North and NE. Then late in the run Low pressure centred more to the NW brings SW gales for many with heavy rain at times for all, becoming heaviest again towards the West and NW by the end of the period with milder conditions re-emerging across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too offers the same ingredients as the rest of the output for the next 7 days with rai at times and rather chillier conditions than of late with some snow on the hills of the North and NE and gales at times in the South. Then later next week deep Low pressure to the North and NW return SW or West gales to all with rain or showers at times in bear average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very low pressure across the UK over the next 10 days or so. Low pressure will lie over the UK in the coming 4-5 days before becoming more to the NW and North later in the period. This will result in chillier conditions early in the period as winds are cyclonic and variable though still strong in places and in the chillier air some snow may fall on higher ground of the North and East. Then later in the run as the Low centre's lie further to the NW SW gales and heavy rain will sweep East across all areas followed by spells of sunshine and showers heavy at times with near average temperatures restricting any snowfall to the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains poor with unsettled conditions across the UK maintained in a largely Westerly flow. The Jet Stream remains likely to be positioned a long way South so conditions are unlikely to be particularly mild but equally not that cold either with the main message being further wind and rain across the UK especially to the West and NW and any snowfall rstricted to the high ground of the North only.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build to the South of the UK again is hinted at as we approach mid January.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.7 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.1 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.4 pts to UKMO at 87.3 pts then GFS at 85.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.8 pts over GFS's 59.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.6 pts to 44.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There remains little cheer from the models this morning as the Atlantic remains in total control of the weather over the UK through the next two weeks. There are of course day to day differences through the period and the main differences lie with the angle of attack that Low pressure takes at the UK through the period and the consequences thereof. For the next four or five days Low pressure areas take a course further South than of late with Southern England home to Low pressure at this time. This brings spells of rain or showers to all areas but in the North and NE some colder continental air could allow some wintry precipitation at times as it feeds West on the Northern flank of Low pressure from Northern Europe. On this morning; output this looks unlikely to be a major feature though with rainfall amounts remaining a major local problem with flooding in the NE and SW. Then a change of orientation of attack of Low pressure to a more NW'ly location drives renewed gales and heavy rain NE across all areas pushing away any colder air still in the NE and leading all areas into Westerly winds and heavy rain and showers at times in average temperatures. This theme then looks like continuing on for some time with a hint this morning that High pressure could begin to play a role in our weather towards two weeks from now. However, on this morning's output it's positioning looks unlikely to be favourable to support cold conditions for long if at all as it looks like that if it does develop it will lie to the SW or South with the South becoming dry and bright while the North continues to see some influence of Westerly winds and rain or showers. All this is a long way off though and caution of this evolution is of course the buzz word here. However, whatever does transpire it continues to look unlikely that any significant wintry weather away from Northern hills and mountains looks likely over the next few weeks at least given the theme and cross model evidence of this morning's output.

Next Update on Sunday January 3rd 2016 at 09:00 approx

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Morning all

first of all happy new year 🙂

well, its been a pretty ropey couple of days in the world if virtual weather - IE living 4,5,6 days in model land -

for me - relating to the forecast its been good & bad news

In the post the other day I mentioned changes for 2 things - the atlantic profile & the shortwave over norway -

well the positive news was the energy that was predicted to exit North out of Scandi did infact correct to move westwards towards iceland & more positive heights are identified -

if we look at the UKMO 72 & 96 that energy moving west did change the angle of the cold over europe to a more westerly flow - always a positive for the UK

in terms if the atlantic though - the ridge wasnt sufficient or acute enough to deliver energy surging south of the UK

infact the final position of the jet ended up trending to be angles ENE ( instead of ESE ) so instead of low pressures diving across the Uk they are now projected to move through the uk & will deliver next to nothing in the way of wintryness for the UK except for the scottish hills -

pretty disapointing in an initial set up the promised more -

in terms of future set ups like this & the fact that the UK will of course experience cold weather again we can:

* look for the routes to cold for the UK & see if they manifest in the models & actually deliver

* look at the models & look for the ways the potentially may develop & scupper the cold for the Uk

* forecast endless mild weather & because of the general weather for the UK claim success because of it



neither of the latter 2 interest me, its Winter & if we cant all enjoy a bit of the white stuff then were on the wrong forum.

More rubbish weather to come - nothing for most of the populus in the next 10 days which puts us at virtually halfway house for winter 15/16

im already thinking this winter is going to be destined for the bin but hope to proved wrong...

enjoy

s 🙂

I must say the proximity of the cold to the east here on Tuesday/Wednesday is tantalising and this is very clear on the 06z GFS which nudged things SE by a few dozen miles - minuscule in the grand scale of things but enough to make a difference here.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010206/gfs-2-78.png?6 

There is still a wide range of options here on the ensemble even by day 4 or 5 - unusually high (albeit quite brief).

The overall picture looks unsettled and still low pressure dominated for the next week at least. Beyond then I'm looking at the potential of something stirring from a northerly quarter but the probability of that would still be in the last category (worth watching in some FI runs though).

All of that is for fun and conjecture unlike the upcoming persistent days of rain for parts of E Scotland.

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Analysis of the frequency and persistence of NAO type shows that there is  is a 75% chance of NAO + decembers being followed by NAo + Januaries.Not exactly the same as +ve temp anomalies but a strong hint in that direction.

yes thought the same for the short term looking at GEFS ENS.Lets hope the southward creep continues.

At least the idea of a "sting" type daughter low pressure to steam along Southern England at some point in the second half of next week appears to have been shelved in favour of a "standard" zonal westerly flow. But as Steve W alluded, things are going to stay generally windy and unsettled next week, particularly in the second half of the week.



That's how far I dare go in terms of reliable forecasting, anything beyond that then becomes educated guessimate/hopecasting territory even though I personally think the form horse is for the cool and unsettled theme to continue into the second week of January.  

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The relentless Atlantic train looks likely to continue for the foreseeable, so broadly speaking a mobile westerly regime with more rain and strong winds to come. There does seem to be the possibility of wintriness during next week towards the NE of the UK where the influence of continental air will never be too far away, other than that I see little to get excited about in terms of a cold wintry spell. I'm starting to feel that this winter may well not start until Spring when background factors become more favourable.

The 6z is a pretty good run. From 228hrs there is a cold nwesterly then n/ne and then an easterly. With the large parts if the country under -6c or lower 850s for 4 or 5 days. High pressure still building north at the end😀 

 

By pretty good I mean FI looks good

The sting jet goes from the 7th but there is still a persistent sign of something quite strong on the 11th. It may not happen then but to me it looks like a case of when rather than if. If we get something like that modelled for the 11th in the window 11-14th Jan, especially if it moves into the North Sea with low central pressure, the East Coast and particularly North Germany and the Netterlands, could see some very high tidal waters.

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agreed... Good FI from the 6z. Variability in model output the past week should give hope to those looking for wintriness, even if the promise of recent models hasn't delivered.

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The GFS at least seems to have been pretty consistent on settling the weather down from mid-January. I just hope this comes off as we need a decent dry spell!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=78&mode=0&carte=0 

Between 72h and 96h Lp run shifting a bit further south again with some of Ens having near to channel low.

If you thought that storm on the 7th in the 00z GFS op run was bad...

 

This is on a par with the Burns Day storm of 1990. Even the '87 storm didn't achieve much higher peak winds and that was over a smaller area.

We really need those signs of mid-Atlantic ridging to verify and save us from the wind and rain. A possible linkup to Greenland is also there for the taking and well supported by the teleconnections so worth keeping an eye on.

A mid-Atlantic low is likely to feature as part of the broad-scale pattern encouraged by those teleconnections, so we'll need to watch for that setting up far enough south to 'prop up' the mid-Atlantic ridge and help it to link with the high latitude blocking and take hold over Greenland.

The 00z and 06z GFS op runs have shown us the potential if that low then heads our way on a southerly track and with enough elongation, a realistic scenario if you ask me, with a high likelihood that we'll be getting anxious over the position of an active mild/cold boundary at some point in the middle part of the month. 

 

Essentially we've seen a tropopsheric pattern so extreme of late that it looks to seriously mess with the polar vortex in the lower levels, enough so that with an amplified MJO signal that favours high latitude blocking, there's plenty of scope for ridges to build north from the Atlantic and then prove resilient against those Atlantic lows.

The 00z from mid-FI made a hash of what should have been a sliding low outcome from trough disruption, the reason being that the upstream pattern (U.S.) briefly flattened out with the worst possible timing.

Not saying it won't happen, but it seems like an unlucky outcome to me.

 

Looking at the ECM 00z op, it becomes a confused picture from +192, as the U.S./Canada/Alaska blocking becomes split and we end up with a ragged wave 3 pattern (i.e. 3 major ridges and 3 major - that being longwave - troughs).

The flabby nature of the low in the western N. Atlantic at +240 makes it hard to envision where the run would go from there in terms of the mid-Atlantic ridge. One big improvement on yesterday's 12z op at that range is the removal of residual disturbances from Greenland.

 

To summarise, I see a lot of potential for transient cold spells with a chance of something lasting a number of days if we get lucky as per the GFS 06z op.

This all comes prior to the effects of a possible SSW event in the stratosphere late this month or early in Feb. I suspect spring may get put on hold this year.

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This is observation and not a forecast 🤓:

The 00 and 06Z GFS ops were huge outliers in FI. Still hungover by the looks of them. The odds favour a continuation of the mobile train in afraid.

if course thus may change again by tomorrow such are the vagaries of the NWP or more importantly what they are trying to model.

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Nasty system from the 06z.

Cold and quite wintry in fi to.

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It is an accurate observation but with some agreement from the ECM op run this morning I would not rule out that scenario gaining support over the coming runs. At the moment it is filed under the "keep an eye on it" folder for me (which is tucked in behind the "imminent flooding very unsettled vile miserable southeasterly" folder )

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Looking like the more impactful storm for down here is around the 11th. This continues to be modelled quite consistently run to run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2169.gif 


Thereafter, better looking winter charts as we head towards mid-month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn30017.gif