Thats nailed on then.

Don't worry, the unremitting dross will be well and truly back come tomorrow's runs- and you know a rain sodden 10 day chart will more likely verify than a 10 day snowmageddon one. Just spent all day working outside in persistent rain. Gggggrrrrr.
I had to laugh at that ECM run though- amazing LOL

So was Steve Murr right in the end then, when he suggested (on New Year's Eve) an imminent pattern change to northerlies?

Oh EC I do hope you're on to something. Once again yet another example of an MJO phase 7 pattern in Jan. #yesplease

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Lets hope.

You are right.  

Today was dross.  A vile, dark, mild- but felt cold -gale ridden horizontal rain in the face, rubbish heap of a weather day. 

Today I felt Richard of Aberdeen's pain.

No, or we'll get a smack on the nose*

* obscure Grange Hill reference from c1985 

A standard balance of positive interest and despair this evening?

ECM showing a proper chance for a pattern change at last. This is where uk cold spells have emerged in recent years and I've seen far many varify than the silly gale force easterly set ups teased out year after year.

IMO cold from an arctic-bourne Greenland HP is a far more plausible outcome. The met expects any cold to be later in winter which might support this.

As usual GFS goes full retard in low res with an anphetamine induced Atlantic or Euro slug (delete as appropriate).

If we're to see cold from the north watch it get reigned into a ECM and ukmo solution later on.
😌👍

Exceptional day 10 mean from the ECM . 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh2401.html

whats exceptional about it?  West to southwest winds in the south???

Massive GReenland and Arctic high . Winds would soon be be northerly or North easterly

Nice to see A great ECM tonight. While the Operational is probably over the top the mean chart you posted is a better indicator in my mind that something is stirring up to the NW. However, some folk think these charts are as useless as a chocolate fire guard but despite what some have said in my book it has been pretty good with pointing to the correct theme over the recent mild and wet weather. Let's hope it continues to develop as I hinted it might in my ECM 10 Day evaluation text in this mornings report when the first inclin of this theme was shown. More from me in the morning report.

I wouldn't say it was massive, and that low exiting off the East Coast looks UK bound. North winds for a while over northern half of UK yes maybe.

I think that an easterly spell in early Jan, which Steve talked about and which was shown in some output over Xmas was always going to be a long shot. The majority of runs a week or so ago showed the atlantic in control of our weather during the first week or two of this month, the only change from recent week being that ir was likely to be a cooler type of zonality than what we saw last month and in November.

Some people said as far back as late November that it was likely to be around mid-January before there was likely to be a better chance of a break from the recent mild & wet pattern. With the period around mid-Jan now coming into the FI bit of GFS runs and soon making it into the tail end of ECM runs, it'll be interesting to see how things transpire.

Weve got a long way to go but it's our best shot at a proper cold spell all winter.  GReenland highs seem to be far more common than Scandinavia highs these days so I'm more confident about this than the new year easterly. Let's hope further runs push the cold uppers all the way south.

But don't people think its true that a Scandi high (even a failed one) is a sign of a greenland high? How many times were greenland highs proceeded by scandi highs? 

Alot.

Means can be misleading but when they match the Op it's normally a good sign.

What do all those pretty colours mean?

I did put on NW ( but not on here ) it didnt quite land as planned

the profile to the east went well but we didnt get an atlantic ridge with enough amplitude

interestingly even at day 3 now the models have moved more towards my solution - but not quite the whole 9 yards...

the ECM is great - shades of 2010 but set against a backdrop of many ECM block failures... Namely last year in more recent times...

nice to look at though - with possibilites - as ever the wave height & amplitude of the atlantic ridge is the key

S

Mods or Brian is that safe too copy weatherbell charts here as I know in past forums they get very upset about it.

I ask as I dont want Q or anybody else to get in trouble about it.

Maybe yes but I'm sure you'll agree a proper UK cold spell based scandi high seem to be a rare beast these days.

not many

ive reviewed them all - most are azores high ridges that have big amplitudes that get sucked into greenland - some are regrograde high pressures from scandi

2010 was both !!!!

S

Not again Martin thought Darren and Steve had explained that,

Yeh I agree with that, but I think even a failed scandi high is a good omen.