Not much sign of the Atlantic "powering" anywhere here. Yes there is a surface low there but the heights remain very impressive with no sign of the deep lows we have seen.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2101.gif

The fly in the ointment seems to be the ridging northwards from Africa so far. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

Yes pretty amazing to see these colours on a North Atlantic chart, no purples to be seen! 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_231_mslp500.png?cb=496

I'm sure the UK will find a way to avoid any deep cold, but it's nice to see nevertheless!

OK this run will do for me. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif

We are seeing the previously modelled "super low" pretty much die a death over the UK from about 120hrs-144hrs. Then heights just die and rise over the North Atlantic and the Greenland high (on this run) gets perfectly pumped up by WAA out of Canada around T240-264. BANK!

erm.... 

yes please

Interesting fi and the blocking over the poles is epic!

Adjust this 200 miles south and we have a New Year's Eve 1978 blizzard rerun :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif

Probably the best low res run of the season from the 06z - pieces in place by end of high res. at one stage there are Greenland highs, Arctic highs and Siberian highs. The jet takes a vacation to Morocco by late FI and the Atlantic goes as quiet as its been in several years. The North Midlands probably get 2f of snow too. Haha it can only get worse from there! 🙈

Deep fi, but I would not say no to that.

MJO is set to remain in phase 7 so its no surprise.

That chart shows the snow missing me & thee, though.  Seems like it'd be more of a 'with altitude' event, but the graphics aren't detailed enough to really show this.

I think we could be lucky here.

AS the LP moves in from the south west - we are on the north side so our air is coming from a more chilly northely direction (or from a cold northern england airmass) . Add in Evap cooling and Bingo.  So long as the trajectory stays the same - we could be in for a bit of short lived snow cover.

I know some recent output is hinting at something altogether better, but I get the feeling that this winter is shaping up to be a bit like 2012/13, in that cold spells are shortlived but yield some 'surprise' snowfalls to certain parts of the UK (chiefly away from the south)

agreed - not an outlier - but in the middle of the cold cluster.

There are still some members going mild though.  

Lol

That would be a proper winter storm on the op run from this morning then.  Proper Snowmageddon on the 15th.

Classic 'slider' - but this is the notorious 06z run (which so often throws up improbable, unsupported eye candy) and it's way out in the low res range ....

Also, looks like just rain for me, with a bit of sleetiness on the back edge .....

A more sober ECM this morn, I think it's a lot more realistic than the eye candy of last night. Now the GFS' turn to throw up some spectacular charts but in deep FI

ECM ens anomalies shows extensive heights over the Arctic. Also note the renewed vortex over NE N.America I've been mentioning, this is why I still favour a toppler at this stage - but a proper Greeny high is definitely plausible too but I'd say less likely.

More runs needed as they say.

utilising JB twitter account - we can see some more ensemble encouragement for GH blocking.

https://twitter.com/BigJoe******i/status/683985781824729088/photo/1?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoe******i&utm_content=683985781824729088 

Meto update not exactly full throttle behind cold, but clearly sees a risk - albeit a temporary one which alludes to prospect of a northerly toppler 

"Temperatures through the period are likely to be near or a little above average. However, there is the risk of a brief much colder spell at the end of next week, with frost and snow showers" - for the Eastern Region

Not that long ago they had little or no chance of a cold spell in the forecast. Its an upgrade