following todays rather underwhelming update from the MetO I think we should all be quite afraid !

razors at the ready . . .

It will get colder next week, but the real cold which has got people excited is currently outside the reliable timeframe for either weather models or informed human judgement. Also, for us, situated where we are on the Atlantic edge of N. Europe, the features which deliver cold only have to change position slightly or flatten out a bit and they could deliver anything from a bit of night time frost to mild SWlys, so a public forecaster will err on the side of caution until it gets closer in.

It's showing up with some consistency on the last few runs though, and seems to be coming in.

So it looks promising for cold lovers.

someone on here used to have the GFS ensemble from that time in there signature - it was soooo depressing when it all fell apart.  I think it was a short-wave which did it, as well.

Yes and there was the great easterly failure of December 2012 that was alluded to by Steve Murr the other day; we went from a possible easterly to total Atlantic control in the space of 24 hours on the NWP.

And a Meteorologist's Nightmare?

Don't remember that! February 2009 had a stonking 2 week nationwide severe cold spell which was easterly, if I remember correctly!

And a massive, record breaking SSW event preceding it in Jan, also if I remember correctly?

Feb 2012 I remember people getting excited about. Also had a massive SSW preceding. In the event it delivered ridiculous -20 temps to places like Holland and Belgium but it stopped at the ferry port and we got a few days of sub zero nights with snizzle.

Ah ha.. OK....

It was 2007.

We did get an easterly with snow in Feb 2009. I'm not going mental...

Shame there isn't anywhere to go for Archived GFS ensemble plots

And an orthographist's nightmare.

If only there was a Like button

I wa spelling off the top of my head. I got close.

I really should have put several smilies on my post - I really meant no offence (not that I think you took any) and realise I've opened the door for lampoonery when I get my spelling wrong

Anyway... the 12z run... comments?

No offence taken, but did have to look it up before replying.

12Z comment - it is running

But all they ever do - and can do - is look at what the computer models are showing.  If there's no hint of a cold spell then they're not going to mention it.   This one has only appeared in the last few days and, to be fair, beyond the middle of next week is FI in forecasting terms.  I think it's understandable that they would default to the prevailing weather type in the absence of clear signals suggesting otherwise.

Anyway, the 12Z is out to T+132 and nothing much has changed.  The minor details are slightly more favourable, especially with better upper heights west of Greenland:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016010612/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

That's my take on it, too.

I'll keep the Prozac in the cupboard for now.

We know the 12z can have a progressive Atlantic bias but this looks very much as you were from the 06z 

so far the GFS is looking more and more like the METO's run from yesterday, with colder air into Northern scotland by Sunday (120)

GFS:

6z

12z

Anyone taking the bait today?

Interesting low forming in the bay of biscay by +174 hours!!

Out to T+168 now:

Still not a lot of change - perhaps the mid-Atlantic link up of upper heights is a little weaker.

Borderline snow event for the South at 180h . If I'm honest I'd like it to be colder by now.

Becomes that very rate beast, a Channel Low.  Heaps of snow for the southern counties if that verified.