theweatheroutlook

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casparjack
12 January 2016 15:10:27
On which model though?
kmoorman
12 January 2016 15:11:52


CFS in about 6 days time next Monday: Should give pause for thought?



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


Almost identical to the GFS ensemble run #4 that was discussed earlier.


 


UserPostedImage

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Islander
12 January 2016 15:12:09

I have a feeling the 12z will possibly be the turning point in this ongoing saga of whether or not the cold spell has any longevity or not. Will the UKMO hang on and be correct, dragging the other models with it, or is the GFS and ECM going to steamroller its plans? Do we disregard the other "not so good' models entirely? Hmmm... Not long to go, lets see what the dice roll this time, sure is going to be interesting! 

Guernsey
warrenb
12 January 2016 15:12:59
Cross model agreement, of the big 3, UKMO,GFS and ECM
Tonbridge 45m 
kmoorman
12 January 2016 15:14:27
Ah - others have spotted the similarity.

Interesting that the GEM Control, CFS and one of the GFS members produce such a similar pattern, but is it unusual?
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Islander
12 January 2016 15:14:37

Cross model agreement, of the big 3, UKMO,GFS and ECM

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Which way? Meaning what?

Guernsey
kmoorman
12 January 2016 15:16:02

Cross model agreement, of the big 3, UKMO,GFS and ECM

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


I thought they'd agreed to disagree?

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
warrenb
12 January 2016 15:22:05
I am saying I think (maybe wishing) that we will have cross model (big 3) agreement at 144 or 168 for an easterly at least in the south of the UK.
Tonbridge 45m 
casparjack
12 January 2016 15:25:11

Cross model agreement, of the big 3, UKMO,GFS and ECM

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


I don't think we see the UKMO to 168 though do we? Not officially at least...


I'm a no for this anyway; I don't think we'll see cross model agreement until it's virtually upon us, given the current state of the atmosphere.

Tractor Boy
12 January 2016 15:35:14

If the UKMO and the others have disagreed up until now then it shouldn't be a surprise that they continue to disagree for the same reasons on the following runs, albeit pushing the disagreement back 6/12 hours with each run. That's not to say that the breakdown shown by GFS et al won't materialise but it would seem that the different models are handling the current setup very differently and may continue to do so.


 

Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Snow Hoper
12 January 2016 15:58:29

I am saying I think (maybe wishing) that we will have cross model (big 3) agreement at 144 or 168 for an easterly at least in the south of the UK.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


Oh yes. Cross model agreement of not having a Scooby. Still think this confusion has legs yet. But I wouldn't discount the failed breakdown slider option before/if the Atlantic makes inroads 

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
warrenb
12 January 2016 16:07:12

at 96 looks like UKMO is sticking firm.


If anything, jet even further south

Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:08:38

To my eye the mild sector looks much more squeezed than on the 06Z?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1262.gif


 


(WZ chart posted only as they come out a bit sooner than the TWO ones!  )

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
kmoorman
12 January 2016 16:09:02


at 96 looks like UKMO is sticking firm.


If anything, jet even further south


Originally Posted by: warrenb 


 


Yep - looks pretty much the same as the earlier version.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:12:52

It's interesting to compare the 126hr chart in today's 12Z GFS to the 150hr from yesterdays on the TWO viewer. The -10c isotherm is into the Netherlands on this run - 24 hours ago at the same time it was across Poland and Denmark!


 


Today:



 


Yesterday:



 


Clearly GFS is letting the cold hang on longer.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
12 January 2016 16:13:58


Is there a chance that it could stay as snow longer do the lack of 'milder' air moving in

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


kmoorman
12 January 2016 16:14:01
snowy breakdown

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Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
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Russwirral
12 January 2016 16:14:37


CFS in about 6 days time next Monday: Should give pause for thought?



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


similar to 2013 that


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:15:59
Yes the 0C isotherm gets squeezed out and remains south of the south coast on this run...

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_144_mslp850.png?cb 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arbroath 1320
12 January 2016 16:16:36

A slightly different orientation to the high but it looks like UKMO is sticking to it's guns at t120:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021


Jet heading South

GGTTH
Gooner
12 January 2016 16:17:27

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Shows the snow band really struggling

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


warrenb
12 January 2016 16:17:31
120 meto is well, different
Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
12 January 2016 16:19:05
Still looking good for a snowy spell on Monday... based on past form I wouldn't be surprised to see it getting pushed further and further south and struggle to make inroads at all.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
12 January 2016 16:19:30

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


If the cold air stays strong the band of ppn could just sit in one place giving a good covering.......................stalling is the word

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


IanT
  • IanT
  • Advanced Member
12 January 2016 16:20:39




A good comeback and also dialectical thinking might prove to enduce yet more debate.

The level of debate keeps coming down another level when these discussions start such as by introducing human actions and then eventually the quantum levels, thats why I led off with comparing it to 'free will' versus 'determinism' where the eventual answer is no doubt to be found.

This is a contested area but the majority of scientists weigh towards determinism these days.

Anyways I am also aware that when these debates get to this level they tend to go on endlessly and round in circles as there isn't as yet complete consensus on 'free will' versus 'determinism'.

Therefore I will politely state it is my opinion that the weather is completely determined and let my side of the arguement rest there so as not to drift off topic :)

P.S. I love the discussion and appreciate the great analysis in the MOD thread! I am a long time lurker and rare poster.


Originally Posted by: marky1 


 


I have enjoyed the debate too. I respect your opinion, and agree that we can let the matter rest before entering into the debate over whether randomness exists or not!


Meanwhile back on model output, it looks to me as though there is plenty of interest for all factions during the next week or so. Both in virtual weather and real(ised) weather...!

Woking, Surrey. 40m asl.

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