Rob, themassive block to the NE cannot be ignored

V

I just think this is one of those occasions where the UKMO is completely wrong in developing the ridge there, this is two GFS runs in a row where it has developed ridge ahead of the approaching system. 

Historically the second system will bring the milder air and everything is heading NE, I'm sure the ECM will support the GFS, perhaps with a slower evolution to Atlantic control.

The 120 fax tonight will certainly answer a few questions

Block to the NE edges ever closer

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_138_mslp850.png?cb=360

Is the Atlantic part of this chart not similar to 3 years previous to the very day? (I get the Euro part isn't: no high in the same place). It's that trough moving in against the -5 uppers.

Can't get the wetterzentrale historic chart up to compare- sorry. They've changed their front page.

I agree. UKMO has no support from any other model. At best it just delays the inevitable. The latest METO forecast is a carbon copy of GFS. Mild at wet by midweek.

I posted that yesterday.  The charts 3 yrs ago today, is almost identical to the charts for say 4 days time.

Incredible similarity.

But I think the GFS has moved toward UKMO. Taking midnight Monday as a baseline, the T+150 chart on the 18z GFS had the 0C isotherm (at 850) across the eastern side of the UK. The T+144 chart on the 0z run had moved it southwest to Devon. Its just clipping Cornwall on the latest T+132 chart.

i think you will find that statement is a fair way off - look at the GFS over the last 3/4 runs its already changed a huge amount - perhaps some choose to ignore that....

Apologies Russ; at least we both spotted it! I suppose that today's run still being so similar- worth note.

GFS control so far

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011212/gens-0-1-96.png

Can we get an undercut?

We know that it churns out more runs than the other models, but IMO has it performed very well with the handling of the Greenland High this week. It may be being too quick with the Atlantic but I'll wager that the ECM will also have us in +5 uppers by T192 at the latest.

Agreed - the GFS has been dragged from breaking things down by the middle of this week into prolonging the cold for a further 5 days (and that number seems to keep increasing with each run). GFS has already lost the contest in terms of how this cold spell developed, even if things do break down to mildness later next week. 

And stunning output in the Star no doubt 😎

Good to see you posting again! 

Another tweak here and there and we could be looking at a stalling snow event. Quite incredible how ukmo has stuck to it's guns and Exeter are backing it, at least through to Tuesday, in its latest update. Fascinating period of NWP poker being played at the moment.

Think that's what the MOGREPS

Had been showing?

As we never get to see much data from any of the meto models .I'm not sure how good the mid term run/ens are? Are they as accurate as the ECM data for example? 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

It may well do but how does that prove that GFS (or even ECM) is handling the setup better than UKMO 

And a quick scan of the GEFS suggests there may be a massive switch imminent. It could be a very busy evening in here 😉

Maybe, but a number of people here were saying something similar both earlier today and last night wrt UKMO moving more towards the evolution of recent GFS runs, and as yet it hasn't happened. If anything, the UKMO at T+144 has moved further away from GFS at the same timeframe rather than towards it.