Not on its own but if this trend continues, of a gradual increase in heights to the north and a slow repositioning of the LP south then it will start to look like the UKMO evolution.

Just reinforces that certainty ends at around 3 days at the moment.

That deep atlantic (ex hurricane feature) is stalling here and promoting SE-NW tilted Warm air advection SW of Greenland. This new trend could be the ticket we need to raise solid heights over Greenland and somehow pull some proper cold air down from that trough over Scandinavia..one to watch.

x2 more runs like the 18z & the UK will be back in cold by tomorrow mornings runs.....

Great post

By T+168 the differences continue. 

If the trend of pushing the low pressure south continues then the cold will get repositioned south as well.

No way to predict past early next week with such uncertainty but I've not seen anything in the 18z to convince me that UKMO is completely wrong.

I'm happy with developments to our north, northwest and west on this run. There is an opportunity for high pressure to form Scotland to Greenland next week thanks to a renewed surge of WAA. That cold scandinavian trough may well get an opportunity to visit the UK at long last. 

Encouraging.

96 fax

120 Fax

lovely cold drizzle😕

You'll love it

Very few comments on the Faxes ??

I think the 120 could give snow inland BUT will it actually get here .

Seems to be a consistent theme on the charts these ast few runs of a plunge of some sort coming out of the Arctic.  We need something like to this to counteract any energy coming off the atlnatic.

i agree could be some snow on that but will it actually make it that far east before fizzling out ...

not sure if its the latest or not, but this taken from the Beeb METO output for Monday, seems hopeful

CAn someone advise if this is the latest Met chart?

JFF the 18Z GFS ends with a massively split vortex and some serious "potential"

No, that fax is a disaster; its a kata decaying warm front; that will give drizzly rain. 

Massive potential

Chart of the day    J F F

If it slides SE?

I wouldn't say disaster Q

It doesn't matter if its a kata front. Don't get me wrong ana warm fronts they can deliever alot of snow. But kata warm fronts are the absolute worst; firstly you need like an 850 temp of about -9C to get snow on them (compare to only about -3C for an ana warm front), what they do produce is mostly dumped over any relief nearby; and when they do pass they introduce the warmer air anyway. Really its all the worst aspects of a warm front and none of the good things. 

What we need is a single good strong ana warm front moving into cold air; that will produce alot of snow; if the fax chart is showing loads of fronts scattered about over the Uk then its a bad sign.

which is would if it evolved into the UKMO +144 chart

If you're looking for cold forget the Alps, forget Russia and go to the Balkans where -28 will greet you next week. That's if GFS is correct of course

that all seems consistent with slow dull warm up being forecast on the BBC (using MetO data), so it would seem the MetO 'solution' is nothing to get excited about even if it is right, but of course things can and will evolve... 

The front shown over the country at T+120 is a weakening warm front, i.e. decaying.  That's the worst possible outcome - bits and pieces of light rain and drizzle, perhaps sleet.

The next front appproaching the south-west is also decaying.

Edit: Thanks Quantum, I missed your post.

ECM 12z ensemble for London

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

As others have noted from the earlier Dutch version, spot the outlier. Definitely a shift in terms of uncertainty from the middle of next week but still a cluster keeping it cold into next weekend - and a marked trend back down again later.