I've experienced some of these - just a couple of days of dull, foggy weather whilst the ground slowly thaws. Damp and drizzly and not nice.

Have to hope that energy does go south instead of the surge in heights coming north.

but.... It's a very long way out to get either excited or depressed about snow prospects even if the MetO solution is broadly correct.  In Jan 2010, just over a week after the main snowfall, a cold drizzly breakdown was predicted to be upon us in the morning... In the event, the front was stronger than forecast and, without any forecast warning at all, there was a few hours of light-moderate snow adding 3-4cm to the snow already lying.  Not the most significant snow event I grant you, especially given what we'd already had, but many of us would be happy to see something like that I'd imagine, yet that was a genuine now cast event!

Yeh - much more scatter of greys on this one.  Though even the ones that stay low, mostly do return to milder air around the 23rd.

It does feel a bit like someone has played the mystery prize.  We could end up with anything here.

Its the worst scenario for Cold spells.  What we need is to return to milder weather with a bang, for the hope that you can move into the colder weather soon.

If the colder air drags its heels out the door, it just prolongs the amount of time we have to wait for the next cold spell.

In return we get a day of freezing rain, followed by several more of grey very cold - but not cold enough for anythign wintry - even at night.

Literally the worst cold weather scenario.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011418/gens-0-1-144.png

GFS control nearly gets interesting.

I can see what Steve M is saying, though I don't know if this can be rescued. It may be a bridge too far

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011418/gens-5-1-120.png

Pert 5

The Steve Murr solution. If the models flip to this tomorrow, I will raise my hat

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016011418/gens-12-1-138.png

Certainly a huge improvement in the GEFS compared with the 12z suite

Well well... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.gif

GFS goes back to the UK high. More twists ahoy.

What an absolutely fascinating period of model output this is - we'll be looking back on this in years to come when flips are discussed!

MetO this morning is more progressive and actually has SW'lies over the UK at 96 - not very warm ones though. Then at 120 and 144 a trough disrupts just to the south and by 144 pressure is building to the NE (with reinforcements coming from the west) and we have easterlies from a low to the south. Whodathunkit eh?

(It should be noted that the easterlies aren't the deep cold sort, far from it, as temperatures by now have risen in the south. Further north though it'd be a snowfest).

Meanwhile GFS brings SW'lies at 78, then disrupts a trough a bit further north than MetO. Similar results though, just a day earlier, with a high to the NE and not-especially-cold easterlies over the UK at 120. The high then sinks and we're back to mild SW'lies at 168, but who'd trust the detail at that range given the massive flip that GFS has done this morning?

Still, for the first time in ages the MetO and GFS are synoptically similar at the 72-120 range and not by showing roaring SW'lies. Just goes to show that nobody knows the answers, no matter what they might say!

(EDIT: And the MetO written guidance says this for its 3-5 day forecast down here. They're certainly not buying into last night's G(E)FS mush-fest!

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

The cold weather continues into next week with a widespread sharp frost overnight and further snow showers at times during the day.)

The overnight runs - more particular the GFS have edged further towards cold & the spectacular swing from the GFS from a mild SW flow from day 6 to a very cold SE flow is all but complete.....

look at the theta charts & compare the stark differences -

run of the day JMA & GFS ptb 6

S

I'm not sure what to make of the runs so far, I was expecting to get it up to see a coup de grace delivered on the cold spell but clearly we should wait for the ECM to hopefully shed some light on matters.

Yet more twists and turns again this morning with just the hint that northern parts in particular could find themselves on the cold side for quite some time to come. GFS, GEM, UKMO and NAVGEM all have south easterlies of sorts in the T120 - T144 period. I'm off to look at GEFS perturbation 6 and the JMA!👍

Some humble pie delivered for many this morning. A particularly large helping in Shropshire and The Chilterns : GFS 138

UKMO 144:

NAVGEM 126:

GEM 96

Lets wait for the ECM before drawing conclusions, I did say there was enough scatter in the ECM ensembles last night for there to be that smidgeon of doubt.

Time to reflect and draw  lessons from this  I feel.

This morning's output a real slap in the face for arrogance and  misreading of the models.

Well some of us tried to point out the atmospheric uncertainty introduced by Alex.

I think it is just opinions and past experience, surely you must admit if 2 of the big models show a progressive zonal pattern at relatively short range then 99/100 times that's what happens, I'm sure most people were expecting to wake up this morning with cross model agreement on a sinker and double figure maxima by Wednesday.

ECM now also has a High at T144 feeding surface cold into the SE, we could just do with a Northward correction. Given the changes since last nights suite, I don't think many people would be surprised to see more changes later today.

It's true that in previous occasions that's generally what's happened.

However, this case is clearly different - and no, I don't think what we see now in the outputs will happen as-is either!

The key to me was the way the written forecasts from the MetO remained in favour of cold persisting into next week, albeit with uncertainty for how long it would last. Their own model was sticking with a colder, more blocked solution even as GEFS fell (a couple of days ago now) and as EPS fell (a couple of runs after GEFS). The fact they had such confidence in their own output spoke volumes to me and as they have more experience than the rest of us put together... it's always worth paying attention to them.

On a sod's law note, I still remember the excitement over the failed easterly of several years ago. GEFS and EPS were on board, but crucially the Met Office run wasn't... and that went pear-shaped within 96 hours.

This time around you would have expected the GEFS/EPS to have performed better (especially GEFS, as it's not an easterly scenario - anecdotally ECM seems better with easterlies), but it seems the tropical storm/hurricane in the Atlantic really mucked things up. It's still likely to be mucking things up now, I daresay we have another 24 hours of fun and games to go as the hurricane continues its journey northwards!

Incidentally, here's the Reading EPSgram for last night. What's the betting there are significant changes in the 4-6 day range today?

What a mess! While the models have now moved back on the return of south westerlies, Stav Danaos on Radio 4 has just forecast a return to Atlantic-dominated weather at the weekend!

Some nice upgrades this morning hopefully more to come. Also looks like the Scotland and the North should have a major snow event Sat night Sunday morning. Hopefully this lot continues south east.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

No egg on the face of UKMO then??

Would you like a wipe

In all seriousness Ian, I cant believe you binned the UKMO last night , you should know better