A long way off in FI but remember the Met Office did forecast colder in the SE: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Let's see if this stays consistent and the runs do end with an easterly.

Cluster 5 would be the least desirable with generally a SW flow.  Fortunately it's the minority outcome.

Cluster 3 is about 20% and offers generally high pressure to the north.

As you, almost any outcome is possible 5 days from now but I reckon a breakthrough of south westerlies is least likely.

geographically speaking I wouldn't class you as a 'southerner' more a south midlander 😋  

Isn't 8C about average for Portsmouth in January? Given it's southern coastal location, and all.

Yes, 7-9C is typical January average range. So like I say from the slightly below average temps of Saturday (5C) and a cool night to follow it's all up from then.. Cold spell over if met have it right for down here.

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Yes, 7-9C is typical January average range. So like I say from the slightly below average temps of Saturday (5C) and a cool night to follow it's all up from then.. Cold spell over if met have it right for down here.

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god I remember -7c MAX in my cold spells in sandown Isle of Wight in 1987 . Right on the seafront too. This is and always was going to be pathetic! 

But as you know Jan 12th 1987 was a truely exceptional day. Citing that as an example is like saying 'the 71cm iron ferrite meteorite that fell into the Saharan desert yesterday is a feeble effort. I remember the event that killed the dinosaurs. Now that was a proper E.L.E. 😉'

The milder maxima in the S and SW forecast for Sunday is the result of a shrinking mild sector. Of course it's all subject to change and the maxima will adjust accordingly. Living on or near the South Coast is always going to be a compromise.

Anywhere south of the M4 has to compromise normally then 😕

ECM Brugge ens.

And here is the January mean temp map - Portsmouth is one of the milder locations ,as we know....

So interesting to see then that today which was supposed to be second day of the cold spell has ended up around average for the time of year for most lol 😂

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/pmextremes.html

And how many places are at or below freezing or have seen significant snow? Very few! So much for the coldest spell since 2013'

Go to the "moan area" then pal.

For those of you who think you know when mild air is here........................do me a favour let Ian F know .

Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

Nice to see Portsmouth turned red

Worth a look, gradually getting milder.  Again, stressing the uncertainty, and mention of computer models.

www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35330201

Different area for snowfall tomorrow night

Early Sunday morning looks interesting for a few .

This is the easternmost limit of Monday's potential event.

I have a feeling Steve my only chance is tomorrow looking at the latest Beeb forecast, I think Monday might just fade away and on Tuesday the milder air will be too quick giving me rain, long way off so time to change I guess

96 FAX

120 FAX

Not much cold left , its a push from the West

I have to say that's my take on it as well for this area.  I suspect that  Monday will be a sleety affair at best here.

Where's the jet going here then?