Saturday nights storm could be really nasty for the South if the ECM has it right. One to keep an eye on.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

Hard to see the settled colder spell that Ian F has been talking about for 'mid-month'. The NWP remains very stormy and progressive this morning.

Snowy end to the ECM run!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

i must agree, whilst I respect Ian and he knows way more about meteorology than I ever will do, I just wonder what output he was consulting when making some of the remarks he has this winter? This is in no way a dig at Ian, but it just goes to show how futile forecasting can be, even for the professional, beyond the 7 to 10 day range. To be fair we aren't anywhere near mid month yet, but to my untrained eye I can't see any upstream patterns that would support the colder scenario.  In the meantime, back to model land and a vicious storm looks set to rip through at the weekend. Batten down the hatches. 

Saturday night could be interesting for some

There's growing, if still tentative, signs now (bolstered further by today's EC Monthly on the heels of GloSea5, plus the EC 30d MJO outlook) for a likely change of type further into this month towards a more settled & colder flavour. The transitional period mid-month (post-MSLP rises to W) is tricky for models: may be transitory, but ditto any return to mobility thereafter looks potentially short-lived, ahead of something drier/chillier to close this winter.

From IF earlier this morning

Saturday nights potential ......for some , as mentioned by Louise Lear yesterday

You are ignoring the looming SSW which is all but nailed on now - it will have an effect, although its precise effect is unpredictable at this stage.

So we are now entering a really interesting phase of the 'winter'* now. The MET have said all along that their seasonal models have pointed to a colder end to winter, and this is still the form horse as indicated by Ian F in his helpful postings in various places. On the other hand the short term NWP just looks stormy and predominantly atlantic driven, albeit with snow in the north at times and the usual swings between mild and colder air as systems pass. This seems to be causing some who should perhaps know better to assume that the MET's seasonal and longer term trend predictions are "on the line", but to do so is surely to ignore the lessons of model watching past - once you get beyond 5-6 days the model charts are not worth the pixels making them up on your screen. Only last month saw massive uncertainty and differences in model outputs in the lead up to the colder spell. I would argue that no one model "won" that scenario - in the end what transpired was a blend of options.

And lastly a SSW (hardly sudden in that we've been waiting for it for what seems ages...) is making itself known. This does not guarantee it will snow in anyone's backyard, but must be seen as picking up the bag of pieces and giving them a bloody good shuffle.

I for one prefer snow to be in Dec/Jan as their is definitely more of a feeling that you might just get long lived snow cover and ice days when the sun is so low, but to be honest the sun's not that powerful in feb. And don't forget the flip side of more potential in the form of showers.

So frustrating as it is not to be looking at snow-laden charts, don't give up all hope yet...

*autumn

The point that Jacko and myself are making is that the NWP is showing the complete reverse of synoptics that could lead to 'a colder settled spell' towards mid month.

As for snow on Saturday , very unlikely unless you are on the highest peaks on the back edge of the system. I don't know what the Beeb are looking at.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   The UK will see rising pressure today as a colder NW flow establishes across the UK for a time with a trough slipping South across the UK later with an increased risk of showers on it's passage. A ridge of High pressure then crosses East over the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 4000ft across many areas of the UK today falling a little further towards 2000ft in the North. Snow showers will give some accumulations again today over Northern mountains.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The message from the Jet Stream today shows the flow continuing to be strong over the next few weeks. The current passage across the UK on a West to East basis sinks South over the weekend and remains quite strong focused towards France before a slow migration North of the flow to the UK again in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuation of the alternating and Low pressure based pattern of weather the UK has seen for most of this Winter with mild and damp weather with rain at times alternating with colder and more showery conditions with some wintry showers over the hills. The winds could be particularly strong and disruptive for a time early next week as deep Low pressure areas cross directly East over the UK. The pattern changes little in the second week with further rain at times with some milder periods once more especially across the South and still windy at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks very similar today to the Operational Run with rain and gales alternating with colder showery spells. By the end of the second week things look likely to have or likely to change little with further West winds, rain and showers at times for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show some differences today though a sizeable 60% still show a likely West or NW flow across the UK with Low pressure close by to the North or NE with rain and showers in average temperatures. A notable 40% of members show High pressure much closer to the SE of the UK with dry and bright weather with light SW winds for many should this verify.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an increasingly stormy period of weather developing over the weekend as deep Low pressure areas driven by a strong Jet stream cross the UK with severe gales, heavy rain and eventually squally and perhaps wintry showers by the start of next week. Before that happens though a period of mild and damp but still windy conditions look likely for many from Thursday to Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show the unsettled theme continuing as further troughs, both warm and cold cross the UK from the West bringing rain at times and strong winds at times. Over the weekend pressure is shown to fall quickly with more complex troughing over the UK maintaining the very unsettled and windy theme.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM too shows wet and very windy and potentially stormy conditions developing later in the weekend and start to next week. Outside of those weather events short drier and colder periods of weather are possible with showers turning wintry over the hills and the odd night frost. Overall though the end of the run looks as disturbed as ever with the hint of colder conditions developing more widely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today is probably the least stormy looking of the big model runs today. Nevertheless it too brings much lower pressure to the South than has been the case of late and allowing all areas to be at risk of heavy rain and/or squally showers from the weekend and through the early to middle part of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today looks very stormy after the weekend with some potentially disruptive weather developing across the UK and not this time just in the North. Low pressure will be powered by a strong Jet Stream and cross the heart of the UK with severe gale or storm force winds and heavy rain followed by showers occurring on a couple of occasions next week with the colder air tucked behind the depressions turning some of the showers wintry over the hills.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for Low pressure to lie close to the UK possibly to the NE with the Jet stream a long way South. Pressure is hinted at rising towards Greenland, at least a little and this could at least provide a catalyst for somewhat colder weather to encroach down across the UK from the North at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and potentially stormy conditions next week for all of the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.5 pts to 67.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 48.0 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  I think the worrying theme of this morning's output is the cross model agreement that the UK could see a period of stormy weather at some stage late in the weekend and early next week. It looks that named storms are likely to grace the weather forecasts again by the weekend and this time their impacts could have far more wide reaching effects especially over the South of the UK. Up until the weekend we have another warm sector to pass through with mild and damp period of windy weather over Thursday and Friday. Then a cold front crossing East on Saturday will introduce the very unsettled spell with gales and heavy rain and showers moving West to East across the UK at the weekend. Intense Low pressure areas then look set on a course much further South than lately with all areas at risk of widespread gales or even storm force winds and heavy rain mixed with short colder periods with squally and possibly thundery showers with snow on the hills. Thereafter and towards the second week of the output changes look small with plenty more opportunity for further stormy spells with rain and strong winds likely and just short colder brighter periods as the Jet Stream seems unrelenting in both strength and positioning to prevent Low pressure from crashing into the UK from the Atlantic. So some very interesting weather to come if it's volatile and disruptive weather you like but I'm afraid there is not too much cheer for those looking for cold and frosty weather with snow although I still maintain the colder uppers at times next week especially could produce the odd snowfall almost anywhere across the UK sometime and somewhere.      

Next Update Wednesday February 3rd 2016 from 09:00

the emc has been for days, and continues to have a large area of high pressure dancing around over the Arctic..

At one point in the coming days it's modeled to be as high as 1050, and yes it does make attempts to nudge into ours & Greenlands neighbourhood at time. 

This to my amateur eyes does seem to scream potential, and that model has been fairly consistent for a few days now with what is happening over the polar region. Sure what happens at mid latitude may change a bit more often if looking at one particular region, but this should be expected with such a large area of high pressure dancing around. It wouldn't take much for the Arctic flood gates to spill down over us.  

You may well be right, although the EPS mean last night made for grim viewing between day 10 & 15.. Hopefully it will show something a bit more favourable later today

Oh, I don't know. At a guess.... maybe information that you're not privy to?

<<< puts head in hands and mutters, "must we go round and round in circles over this >>>

Let's hope that Ian is right here.

Well we are all privy to the general NWP for something that is just T96.

Is the system coming into cold air ? No.

Oh Ok then, is there a marked 'wrap' around where cold air catches up with the PPN ? No.

So is the air colder enough behind the system to give back edge snow as it clears away ? No, perhaps only for the highest elevations.

That's the concensus from all the models that you and I can see, there doesn't look much room for manoevre or doubt in this outlook just 4 days away. So we will see what transpires.

Your pithy point was 'I don't know what the Beeb are looking at', intimating that they were making it up or getting their information from scrying into a mystical mirror and glancing at pine cones.

Ok, fine but I know where my money is going at this present time.

Ian, the main point here is that thr MetO have access to an array of information that the ordinary Joe or Jane on the street does not have. That I believe is why what they say in their forecasts can sometimes appear to be somewhat at odds with what the models we have access to are suggesting.

FWIW, after Thursday/Friday, I would summise that it doesn't look especially mild for my part of the world.

This Friday UKMO and GFS the next named System James if they name it then, will be affecting the far Western NW UK third of UK, East and SE and NE dry bright with pressure higher, less windy.

On Saturday: The (if) Named Low at 975 mbs from 985 Low brings a bit cool or nearer normal temps in the NW areas, but still a bit above average further South and East, bands of rain or scattered heavy showers and fairly strong winds as the Low spins over West NW Central UK.

On Sunday: Colder with further heavy rain and for NW and North UK hill snow with rain showers lower down, and in the SW South and SE a bit above normal to average temperatures with a spell of hill snow West and North and NE of the Short wave trof, or spell of heavy rain from SW then Central S and SE UK.

On Monday: A New PV Low moves in from the West mid North west Atlantic which moves ESE then East NE as it merges with NW UK Polar Vortex Low, for we will get heavy snow in North Central Ireland NW and North England and much of Scotland even to lower levels, but more likely the further north of this area e.g Scotland ahem.  The South SE and SW UK likely colder than Sunday  with chance of further rain with some hill snow in the west and north here, otherwise before and after this frontal Low from the West UK passes there it will bring bluster showers with rain-hail and sleet/ snow on hills with average temperatures by then while Scotland and Northern Central Ireland see below average temperatures.

This is the current thinking.

😀😋🌧.

David, I haven't suggested that it will be mild (though Sunday looks mild for the Southern half especially) but that there is nothing to suggest a degree of uncertainty in the NWP that we could see that could lead to a snow event way from the very highest peaks on Saturday.

I find it hard to see how the METO could be looking at something that has colder air in place ahead of the system, or the system taking a different track and becoming complex. There just isn't that margin for error/doubt there.

That's exactly how I'm seeing Saturday Laiq.