...possibly the quietest I have seen this thread during the winter.

10 day accumulated precipitation on the 12z GFS tells a story of Tm and Pm air-masses delivering their bounty to western coasts and hills.

Edit - on the back-loaded winter (I prefer "late" winter) front, IF anything significantly cold is to transpire (upper of -9 or less for a few days) then I would see it arriving somewhere around 13-16 February, so on that basis GEFS and other ens will be of passing interest right through this week to see if anything is picked up.  For the record, I'm not convinced this will happen, I'm just thinking that a fusion of Greenie and Azores high could topple but then stabilize for a day or 2 leaving a potential Pc feed for up to 3 days, and if heights fall sufficiently over Europe, then possibly longer.  The form horse, however, is for continuing zonality, perhaps a colder-cooler version, and a windier version for the south of the UK.

LOL.

  I suppose what you're saying is a variation upon the now old fashioned vocal goal-celebration from my childhood of "one for the scrap-book" to a derogatory classification of the current 'winter' as   "one for the scrap-heap".

If February is going to be mild, I hope it does it in style, blasting the mildest winter record to smitherines.

I cant see it being 'that' mild .............no proof , it might just be average

Low Pressure free Thursday and Friday expected on Friday, then not one but one then another Low Pressure Crosses in Succession enter NW UK first Low day Saturday, then a NW Atlantic Low then merges with it gradually on Sunday at 144hrs aka UKMO and the GFS modelling them, they have plenty of cold Polar Vortex in them, cover the UK in dropping to normal or below even the further North and West in the UK you are, Saturday Heavy rain and near average or slightly above norm temperatures for UK, then Cold weather across UK on Sunday, transformation is looking good.

The Azores High moves from W Europe to West SW And Central Europe, Saturday-Sunday NW Europe increasingly affected by colder Low Pressure which pushes the Azores High east SE away from Far West Europe ahem.

High over NE USA also on next Saturday Sunday moves there as NE USA Low moves through NW and Mid North Atlantic to merge with UK PV Low that affects Norway West SW and Iceland next Saturday Sunday and same time Central mid West Central N Atlantic SW side has well formed blocking high, and at the same Time Greenland High remains maintained - extended throughout Friday to Sunday across the Central Arctic to our North, and Northeast Mid AtlanticPolar Vortex Low affect UK and SE Iceland as well, NW Atlantic Low quickly moves east southeast from 120 to 144hours with massive drop in 500 HPA temps and deepen pressure matching the UK one, by Sunday.

😀😒🖐.

That's why I said IF Marcus.  There's a lot to play for, but the pitch this year has been set by the 'opposition' and when we change halves the slope and the wind change too, for the worse it seems.

Nice way of putting it , I am still hopeful we might claw something from the last 2 weeks of Feb and first 2 or 3 in March

You may well be correct.  Time will tell and all that...

Feck that! time to start looking forward to spring by then.  Cold late Feb's and March's do nothing for me personally. This must be the first winter I have ever experienced where I haven't seen even one coating of snow at some stage. Add to this the the lack of proper winter storms despite the constant zonality since November, I have no other option but to confine this accursed winter to the bin.

Where are those charts then ??? Never spoil a good story with the facts eh? Might get a day that comes close to 12.9c but certainly not what you are forecasting

Sorry Gooner, we hit 14C today! Didn't feel like that in the wind mind you 

Cooler zonality looks like the order of the day to me, though that's just after a glance at the charts. The quietness of this thread is enough indication that there isn't much eye candy on offer in FI land at the moment. The high rainfall totals for northern and western areas are once again a big worry - harking back to the horror show that was December.

I think we will get another cold spell, perhaps the best of this winter, later on this month. Not good news for southerners especially though!

I admire your optimism Gooner but even I'm Starting to think that's about it for snow this winter. It looks incredibly unsettled for February with two storms Inparticular looking nasty at day 5 and 7.

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Today was never in question though or in the charts I posted  

C Z is exactly what I was aiming at .

AP we still have another 6 weeks that could deliver something for us, still time yet .

Well pardon me for not reading your post properly 

You're quite right, unlikely we'll see such high temperatures for the rest of this week, although Thursday looks dreadfully dull and mild 

That's ok mate, I wouldn't disagree it looks bloody awful doesn't it

 

AP we still have another 6 weeks that could deliver something for us, still time yet .

 

My towels are still folded away

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Lets hope so I don't mind when it comes. My fix is one fall of 5cm + a winter surely not to much to ask for in a UK winter.

We did, as one well respected member from Cumbria will surely testify!

My recollection of following the models from that period was that we were teased with a possible notable cold spell in the early days of that month which the models then renaged on. Andy then piped up with his now legendary post. Then, against all odds (or so it seemed), the models brought the cold spell back for later in the month, and it materialised.

What I'm not sure of is whether or not there was any stratospheric warming around that time. It was quite a turnaround in the pattern of that winter as, rather like this one, it had been predmoninantly mild and zonal throughout much of December 2004 and January 2005. At one point in early Feb 2005, after the models retracted their original suggestion oif a cold spell, the models for a time looked pretty bleak for cold, so I guess Andy's scepticism was understandable. Thankfully though we were pleasantly surprised later in the month.

Louise Lear mentioned a LP going across Southern Britain on Saturday with Snow on the leading edge as it bumps into closer air, has GFS got it too far North?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_126_preciptype.png?cb

0z GFS a continuation of the mobile westerly theme.  A cold spell mid month is looking highly dubious, a cooler snap at best.  Time for things to change, but this runt of a winter is approaching the point of no return.