Well maybe you can show in chart form ..? as it seems that you never back up your comments with any visuals

Ok, Saturday morning average temps ahead of the system :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

Next lot of crud rolls in, rain :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif

Its cleared through with temps a few degrees above freezing :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

All that is needed here is the feature to run a little more southerly than is modeled on the GFS.  The Beeb even says it will be a feature for heavy rain for southern counties - which doesn't line up with GFS.  hence the confusion on here.

If the MEt/Beeb have the feature modeled to run through the central and southern England, then its fair to say at the northern edge away from the mild sector - this could well be snow.  Similar to Boxing day 2014.

I'm currently composing a eulogy to the Great British Winter - a combination of El Nino and GW has done for you, which you will all get to here v.soon.

Me too! The fact we have only had one or two dry days throughout the whole of January says it all. Now we are in February and things don't look any different - let's hope this is short lived!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

You may end up being right, but how on earth can you be so sure, especially given IF's tweets?  Your comment is a triumph of pessimistic expectation management over objective analysis.....   Even if the GFS is correct in modelling out to t+384 (and since when has GFS been reliable at even close to this range, even when the pattern seems set!), then to extrapolate that for another two weeks is surely crazy.

IF?? Ian Fergusson?

Well, just hope he is correct - what is his tweet?

Just can't see anything cold in the models - just shows zonal weather - wet and windy weather with occasional drier /cooler spells but even these only lasting a day.

I keep telling ya! The models don't have a handle on the coming changes yet - give it another 4 or 5 days and we will be seeing some real eye candy.

Changes are coming - we just have to be patient for another couple of days or so.

I think you must be Steve Murr's prodigy

Meanwhile the zonal train looks pretty stormy and with a couple of bouts of more southerly jet, the south will doubtless get a hammering from rain if not the strong winds.

Ensembles suggest most runs are maintaining that tedious upper profile of between +5'c and -5'c 850 hPa which is pretty cack for the south although favoured northern areas will continue to see spells of wintriness.

Roll on spring

We will have to see Maunder, I find it very hard to see where mid-latitude ridging is coming from never mind what might be called 'real eye candy'. I notice on the other side some of the more usually upbeat posters are throwing towels in and GP the torpedo man as disappeared completely ! 

All my banging on about the MJO may yet pay off.

Actually, I say that, but it has already made a huge difference to the projected strength of the ridge into the Arctic that leads to the U.S. cold shot and could allow for a mid-Atlantic ridge and sliding low combination mid-month (this being the tricky transitional period).

So the verification of MJO-led expectations has been good for the N. hem pattern as a whole, but unfortunately this has not yet worked out for the UK in terms of getting more than transitional, north-focused snow out of it. Sounds very typical doesn't it?  Events in the stratosphere have not played ball and this is the main reason for our troubles mid-month. It could have been so much quicker and easier but when that second bout of warming came into view some 10 days ago, it became clear that there was a considerable risk things would not go well (it had to produce a split vortex to deliver the goods. No dice.).

Still plenty of indications, now being hinted at by Fergie, that the MJO will traverse 6/7/8 during the final 10 days of the month, which corresponds strongly to increased HP influence which then transfers to the N and NW of the UK. Only when the actual extremity of the resulting pattern becomes apparent will I know whether to be happy about that or not... in my books, it has to be something special to justify a delay to spring!

Wrapping this thread up very shortly......